Osasuna vs Espanyol: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

La Liga13 September 2026El Sadar, Pamplona20°16 km/h

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OsasunaPossession control

EspanyolPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Osasuna (47%)

1 · Osasuna 47%X 29%24% Espanyol · 2

47%

29%

24%

Analysis: Osasuna – Espanyol

Marcus Johansson · 5 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

FAKTA: The head-to-head text is inaccurate. The facts state Osasuna's record is 1W 1D 2L in 4 matches since 2022, meaning Espanyol actually won 2 matches, not just "a win" each side.

TEXT: Osasuna and Espanyol's recent head-to-head record shows Espanyol with the edge, winning two of the four encounters since 2022, with Osasuna taking one win and the sides sharing one draw. This small sample, however, should not overshadow the current form and expected goals data, which clearly favor the hosts. Osasuna holds a distinct edge in xPoints and xG, suggesting they are the more consistent performers lately.

The match is poised on the tactical knife-edge of possession control, with both teams favoring a similar style. This might lead to a midfield battle where Osasuna's slightly superior ability to translate possession into quality chances could be the key. The hosts average 1.7 xG per match compared to Espanyol's 1.3, indicating a likely edge in creating opportunities. Defensively, Osasuna has been more robust, with an xGA of just 0.63 per match — a stark contrast to Espanyol's 1.6. This defensive solidity is likely to play a crucial role in limiting the visitors' chances.

Scoring might not flow freely, as the model points to a 13% probability for both 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines, with a notable 10% chance of a goalless draw. The expectation of under 2.5 goals aligns with these probable outcomes, given the over 2.5 probability sits at 42%. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is under 50%, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring affair.

For bettors, the value emerges in backing Osasuna. With a model probability of 47% compared to Espanyol's 24%, there's a clear lean towards the home side. While not a guarantee, the odds reflect Osasuna's underlying strength and form advantage, making them the smart play for this matchup.

Osasuna

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #16xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Ante BudimirFxG 1.10 · xT 0.01
Raul GarciaFxG 0.39 · xT -0.09
Asier OsambelaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Espanyol

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #13xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Roberto FernandezFxG 0.52 · xT 0.01
Álex Calatrava TorradoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.02
Roger Hinojo EstradaLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Osasuna – Espanyol

Predicted score matrix

Espanyol →

Osasuna →

0–09.9%

0–18.5%

0–24.1%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–013.2%

1–112.9%

1–25.8%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.6%

2–19.0%

2–24.2%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.6%

3–14.3%

3–22.0%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-113%
3.0-010%
4.2-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,42–0,93

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.68

Over 2,542%

@2.27

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Osasuna to win47%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Osasuna to win47%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Ante Budimir to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Ante Budimir to score33%
Fernando Calero Villa to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Osasuna	X	2 · Espanyol
Betsafe	2.02	3.20	3.95
Betsson	2.02	3.20	3.95
Nordicbet	2.02	3.20	3.95
Paddy Power	1.87	3.40	3.80
Pinnacle	2.07	3.42	3.80

Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:15

Odds movement

1+4 %

50 %45 %

1.99 → 2.07

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.46 → 3.42

2+1 %

28 %23 %

3.78 → 3.80

Over 2,5+6 %

46 %41 %

2.14 → 2.27

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Osasuna 1Draw 1Espanyol 2

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Osasuna

Espanyol

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Osasuna (3–1)

Espanyol (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Osasuna

Espanyol

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Osasuna

Espanyol

The teams in numbers

Performance	Osasuna	Espanyol
Points	7	3
xPoints	6.4	4.5
xG per match	1.7	1.3
xGA per match	0.63	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.02	0.31

Playing style	Osasuna	Espanyol
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.47	0.49
xT per match	0.62	0.65
xTA per match	0.85	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	20	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.12
Entries into the box per match	8	7
Entries into the box against	7	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.73
Passes per match	357	335
Passes against per match	414	395
Switches of play per match	32.4	18.1
Long balls per match	42	23

Set pieces	Osasuna	Espanyol
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.15
Corners per match	4.4	1
Corners against per match	4	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.77	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.92	0.62

Other	Osasuna	Espanyol
Throw-in control	0.79	0.68

The goalkeepers	Sergio Herrera (Osasuna)	Marko Dmitrović (Espanyol)
Saves	3	13
Save %	75%	77%
xG prevented	86%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Osasuna vs Espanyol according to our model?

The model gives Osasuna a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osasuna 47%, draw 29%, Espanyol 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.