Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

La Liga5 September 2026Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal26°12 km/h

Läs på svenska

VillarrealPossession control

Deportivo La CoruñaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Villarreal (60%)Best value by the model: 2 · Deportivo La Coruña @ 6.40 (+11 %)

1 · Villarreal 60%X 22%17% Deportivo La Coruña · 2

60%

22%

17%

Analysis: Villarreal – Deportivo La Coruña

Sofia Andersson · 28 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Villarreal's meticulous possession control meets Deportivo La Coruña's staunch defensive setup in a match where both tactical approaches will be on display. With Villarreal boasting a 60% win probability at home, their ability to dictate play through controlled possession becomes pivotal. Their expected goals of 1.82 overshadow Deportivo's 0.88, indicating a significant attacking edge for the hosts.

The defensive resilience of Deportivo, primarily relying on a low block and direct counter-attacks, might suppress Villarreal's fluidity at times. However, Villarreal's greater xG within eight seconds of winning the ball (0.19 compared to Deportivo's 0.12) suggests that the home side has the upper hand in capitalizing on transitional moments, a potential key to unlocking Deportivo's defense.

While the predicted scorelines of 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (11%) favor Villarreal, a 1-1 draw at 11% indicates that Deportivo might find a way through. Yet, with only a 17% chance of a Deportivo win, the visitors face an uphill battle. The possession control of Villarreal is likely to see them dominate the ball, reducing Deportivo to sporadic counter-attacks, which may not be enough to tilt the balance in their favor.

The over/under line at 51% for over 2.5 goals suggests a balanced outlook, with goals fairly likely given the combined expected goals of 2.70 between the two sides. This aligns with the model's most likely scorelines, which point to a moderately open contest rather than a low-scoring one.

In conclusion, the numbers suggest a controlled victory for Villarreal, likely in the form of a 1-0 or 2-0 win, with Deportivo struggling to penetrate the hosts' defense. The value lies with Villarreal securing the win, while a cautious approach to goal-heavy expectations is advisable.

Villarreal

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #14xT #4xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Georges MikautadzeFxG 0.96 · xT 0.32
Ayoze PerezFxG 0.27 · xT 0.10
Nicolas PépéRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.14

Deportivo La Coruña

Form DD

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #18xP/match #12Points #10

Key players

Pierre-Emerick Emiliano François AubameyangFxG 0.62 · xT 0.02
Lorenzo AmatucciCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Ximo NavarroRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Villarreal – Deportivo La Coruña

Predicted score matrix

Deportivo La Coruña →

Villarreal →

0–07.0%

0–15.6%

0–22.6%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.9%

1–111.1%

1–24.8%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.1%

2–19.8%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.7%

3–15.9%

3–22.6%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.6%

4+–14.1%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,82–0,88

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.10EV+2%

Over 2,551%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Villarreal to win60%
Over 1.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Villarreal to win60%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Pape Alassane Gueye to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Pape Alassane Gueye to score31%
Ricardo Rodríguez Gil Carcedo to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Deportivo La Coruña17% probability@6.40BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
2 · Deportivo La Coruña17% probability@6.40BetssonEV+11%reference odds
2 · Deportivo La Coruña17% probability@6.40NordicbetEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Villarreal	X	2 · Deportivo La Coruña
Betsafe	1.50	4.20	EV+ 11% 6.40
Betsson	1.50	4.20	EV+ 11% 6.40
Nordicbet	1.50	4.20	EV+ 11% 6.40
Pinnacle	1.52	EV+ 3% 4.60	EV+ 5% 6.02

Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Villarreal win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.60 to 1.52 (−5%).

1-5 %

64 %59 %

1.60 → 1.52

X+11 %

24 %19 %

4.15 → 4.60

2+16 %

20 %15 %

5.17 → 6.02

Over 2,5-5 %

55 %50 %

1.88 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Villarreal CF win 63% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Villarreal

Deportivo La Coruña

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Villarreal (4–4)

Deportivo La Coruña (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Villarreal

Deportivo La Coruña

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Villarreal

Deportivo La Coruña

The teams in numbers

Performance	Villarreal	Deportivo La Coruña
Points	2	2
xPoints	2.9	2.4
xG per match	1.7	0.91
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.09

Playing style	Villarreal	Deportivo La Coruña
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.3
Field tilt	0.49	0.37
xT per match	1.3	0.41
xTA per match	0.99	0.5
Won balls, offensive half	20	17
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.17
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.14
Entries into the box per match	16	7
Entries into the box against	18	9
Pass completion %	0.82	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.73
Passes per match	417	376
Passes against per match	356	535
Switches of play per match	20.1	32.2
Long balls per match	20	34

Set pieces	Villarreal	Deportivo La Coruña
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6.1	2.6
Corners against per match	5.2	6.7
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.2
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.54

Other	Villarreal	Deportivo La Coruña
Throw-in control	0.7	0.61

The goalkeepers	Juan Foyth (Villarreal)	Leo Roman (Deportivo La Coruña)
Saves	7	7
Save %	100%	78%
xG prevented	100%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña according to our model?

The model gives Villarreal a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Villarreal 60%, draw 22%, Deportivo La Coruña 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.