01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Celta Fortuna or draw (X2)57%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Segunda División24°18 km/h
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CeutaPossession controlvs
Celta FortunaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Celta Fortuna (42%)Soft draw
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Ceuta – Celta Fortuna · Segunda División
1 · Ceuta 39%X 19%42% Celta Fortuna · 2
39%
19%
42%
Analysis: Ceuta – Celta Fortuna
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The tension at Alfonso Murube Stadium is palpable as Ceuta, losers of their last three matches, face a Celta Fortuna side eager to exploit their recent vulnerabilities. The model narrowly favors the visitors with a 42% win probability, edging out Ceuta's 39%. This is a match where recent form and Celta Fortuna's tactical prowess in counterattacking could tip the scales.
Ceuta's possession-heavy style has not translated into results lately, as evidenced by their recent skid. In contrast, Celta Fortuna's counter-attacking efficiency aligns well with Ceuta's porous defense, currently leaking an average of 2.0 xGA per match. The model hints at a closely contested affair, with 1-1 and 2-1 the most likely scorelines, but the underlying metrics support a lean towards the visitors.
Despite Ceuta's historically strong home record, winning 55% of matches played at their fortress, current form and expected goals suggest otherwise. Ceuta finds themselves on the back foot not only in recent outcomes but also in underlying numbers, trailing in points, xPoints, and xG per match when compared to Celta Fortuna.
The market offers intriguing value on an away win with odds of 3.45 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, capitalizing on a notable 44% edge as calculated by the model. This suggests that while the clash is tight, the visitors are underrated by bookmakers considering the data.
Expect an open game with goals on both sides, as indicated by a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% likelihood for both teams to score. Yet, the sharpest angle lies with Celta Fortuna at those tantalizing away odds. If you’re looking for value, that's your play.
CeutaForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #21xGA #22xT #16xP/match #22Points #22
Key players
- Kialy Abdoul Abdoul KoneFxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Carlos Redruello NimoLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
- Cedric Wilfried Teguia NoubiRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.20
Celta FortunaForm DWL
League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #10xP/match #19Points #13
Key players
- Bernard Somuah SarpongFxG 0.30 · xT -0.03
- Ángel Arcos CadillaLWxG 0.14 · xT -0.01
- Andrés Antañón VieitesCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Ceuta – Celta Fortuna
Predicted score matrix
Celta Fortuna →
Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–15.5%
0–24.4%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–06.4%
1–110.5%
1–27.7%
1–33.9%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.9%
2–18.9%
2–26.7%
2–33.4%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–03.4%
3–15.1%
3–23.9%
3–32.0%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-06%
Expected goals
1,74–1,51
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.10
Over 2,563%
@1.80EV+14%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Celta Fortuna or draw (X2)57%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Álvaro Marín Sesma to score14%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Marcos Fernández Sánchez to score29%
- Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Celta Fortuna42% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+53%reference odds
- 2 · Celta Fortuna42% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+42%reference odds
- 2 · Celta Fortuna42% probability@3.40BetssonEV+42%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ceuta | X | 2 · Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | 3.30 | EV+ 42% 3.40 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.30 | EV+ 42% 3.40 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | 3.30 | EV+ 42% 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.51 | EV+ 53% 3.68 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 05:20
Odds movement
10 %
49 %44 %
2.07 → 2.07
X+4 %
30 %25 %
3.38 → 3.51
2+1 %
29 %24 %
3.64 → 3.68
Over 2,5-3 %
55 %50 %
1.84 → 1.78
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- AD Ceuta FC have lost 3 in a row.
- AD Ceuta FC win 55% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ceuta
Celta Fortuna
Ceuta (1–10)
Celta Fortuna (5–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ceuta
Celta Fortuna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ceuta
Celta Fortuna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ceuta | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 4 |
| xPoints | 1.9 | 3 |
| xG per match | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.61 | 0.38 |
| Playing style | Ceuta | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 325 | 302 |
| Passes against per match | 409 | 447 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.9 | 20.9 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Ceuta | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| Other | Ceuta | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Guillermo Vallejo (Ceuta) | Jorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 10 |
| Save % | 47% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ceuta vs Celta Fortuna according to our model?
The model gives Celta Fortuna a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ceuta 39%, draw 19%, Celta Fortuna 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.