Burgos vs Ceuta: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

Segunda División11 September 202619°28 km/h

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BurgosPossession control

CeutaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Burgos (54%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.00 (+13 %)

1 · Burgos 54%X 28%18% Ceuta · 2

54%

28%

18%

Analysis: Burgos – Ceuta

Oscar Nilsson · 8 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Burgos and Ceuta have faced off twice since the start of 2023, with the visitors holding a slight edge in this small sample, having drawn once and won once. However, this head-to-head record pales against Ceuta's alarming recent form: they have lost their last four matches. The hosts, meanwhile, boast a better current standing with 5 points to Ceuta's none, reinforcing the model's lean towards a Burgos win.

The expected goals (xG) further underline the home advantage. Burgos are generating 1.4 xG per match compared to Ceuta's 0.79. Defensively, the disparity is starker: Ceuta are conceding 2.0 xGA per match, much worse than Burgos's 1.3. This imbalance suggests a challenging evening for the visitors, who struggle at both ends of the pitch.

Despite both teams opting for possession-based play, it's Burgos that appears more adept at converting this approach into tangible results. The model sees a 54% chance of a home win, with the most likely scorelines being 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Burgos. There's a reasonable 44% chance both teams will find the net, but the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is under 50%, reflecting defensive strengths and offensive inefficiencies.

From a betting perspective, the value lies in the conservative market. The under 1.5 goals bet is intriguing at odds of 3.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering an 8% edge given the model's 31% prediction. While not a guarantee, it's a sharp angle for those looking to capitalize on the low-scoring potential of this match.

Burgos

Form WWLDD

League ranking xG #5xGA #15xT #6xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Álex Forés MendozaFxG 0.41 · xT -0.01
Javier Llabrés ExpositoLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Curro SanchezFxG 0.42 · xT 0.09

Ceuta

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #22xT #13xP/match #22Points #22

Key players

Kialy Abdoul Abdoul KoneFxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
Cedric Wilfried Teguia NoubiRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Omar SadikFxG 0.11 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Burgos – Ceuta

Predicted score matrix

Ceuta →

Burgos →

0–09.6%

0–17.0%

0–22.9%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.3%

1–112.0%

1–24.6%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.6%

2–19.3%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–06.2%

3–14.9%

3–21.9%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.5%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-012%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,59–0,79

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.96EV+8%

Over 2,543%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Burgos to win54%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Burgos to win54%
Under 2.5 goals57%
David González Ballesteros to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals43%
David González Ballesteros to score28%
Youness Lachhab Didi to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw28% probability@4.00PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
Under 1.531% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burgos	X	2 · Ceuta
Betsafe	1.62	EV+ 1% 3.60	4.90
Betsson	1.62	EV+ 1% 3.60	4.90
Nordicbet	1.62	EV+ 1% 3.60	4.90
Pinnacle	1.60	EV+ 13% 4.00	5.39

Odds updated 9 Sept, 22:31

Odds movement

1-2 %

61 %56 %

1.64 → 1.60

X+3 %

26 %21 %

3.87 → 4.00

2+4 %

20 %15 %

5.19 → 5.39

Over 2,5-1 %

54 %49 %

1.88 → 1.86

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Burgos 0Draw 1Ceuta 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

AD Ceuta FC have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burgos

Ceuta

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burgos (5–5)

Ceuta (1–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burgos

Ceuta

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burgos

Ceuta

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burgos	Ceuta
Points	5	0
xPoints	5.7	3
xG per match	1.4	0.79
xGA per match	1.3	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.62

Playing style	Burgos	Ceuta
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.44	0.36
xT per match	1.1	0.72
xTA per match	0.93	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.17
Entries into the box per match	10	10
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.66
Passes per match	369	318
Passes against per match	313	392
Switches of play per match	26.9	16.6
Long balls per match	38	24

Set pieces	Burgos	Ceuta
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.01
Corners per match	4.2	4.8
Corners against per match	6	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.62

Other	Burgos	Ceuta
Throw-in control	0.72	0.66

The goalkeepers	Ander Cantero (Burgos)	Guillermo Vallejo (Ceuta)
Saves	15	9
Save %	75%	47%
xG prevented	56%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burgos vs Ceuta according to our model?

The model gives Burgos a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burgos 54%, draw 28%, Ceuta 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.