Segunda División19°24 km/h

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    BurgosBurgosLow block & direct
    2–2
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad BLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Burgos (60%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 9.00 (+16 %)

    Burgos – Real Sociedad B · Segunda División

    1 · Burgos 60%X 25%15% Real Sociedad B · 2

    Analysis: Burgos – Real Sociedad B

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Burgos' modest goal output has been a feature of their campaign, and they'll be looking to leverage their attacking edge against Real Sociedad B. With a 60% chance of victory according to the model, the hosts are clear favorites. Their scoring is modest but effective, creating a low-risk environment that suits their style. It's no surprise that the most likely scorelines are evenly split between 1-0 and 1-1 at 12%, with a 2-0 win not far behind at 10%. This reflects a side that thrives on direct play, a strategy that has paid off in their head-to-head meetings since 2023, albeit from a small sample size of two matches.

    Real Sociedad B, despite being an underdog with a mere 15% chance of an upset, could pose a threat with their quick transitional play. They boast a higher xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, 0.42 compared to Burgos' 0.19, suggesting a potential for catching Burgos off guard. However, their defensive frailty is exposed by an xGA of 1.6 per match, significantly behind Burgos' 1.2. This defensive lapse could be their undoing, especially against a side that will likely manage the game with discipline and patience.

    The expected goals numbers suggest a moderately scoring affair with Burgos predicted to net 1.72 goals to Real Sociedad B's 0.93, aligning with the model's 49% probability for over 2.5 goals. Both teams play a low defence and direct style, pointing to a contest that could be open at times despite the tactical discipline on show.

    For those seeking value, the odds on a home win are attractive. With a 7% edge at odds of 1.78 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there is statistical value in backing Burgos to secure the win. This bet doesn't promise fireworks, but it does promise a calculated approach that leans on Burgos' overall edge in expected points and goal difference.

    BurgosBurgos
    Form WWWWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #6xP/match #17Points #8
    Key players
    • Javier Llabrés ExpositoLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.04
    • David GonzalezFxG 0.28 · xT 0.01
    • Sergio GonzalezCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    Form DLDLW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #15xP/match #18Points #10
    Key players
    • Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFxG 0.27 · xT 0.00
    • Gorka GorosabelCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.01
    • Kazunari KitaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Burgos 60% · Draw 25% · Real Sociedad B 15%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - BurgosBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,33fair 7,25+1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Real Sociedad San Sebastian BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 18,40fair 24,35-24 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Burgos – Real Sociedad B

    Predicted score matrix

    Real Sociedad B →
    Burgos →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.4%
    0–16.3%
    0–23.1%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.8%
    1–111.6%
    1–25.3%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.0%
    3–15.6%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.8%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,72–0,93
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.69
    Over 2,549%
    @2.25EV+6%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Burgos to win60%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.63

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Burgos to win60%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • David González Ballesteros to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • David González Ballesteros to score27%
    • Jon Balda Zubiri to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.513% probability@9.00Bet365EV+16%reference odds
    • Over 2.549% probability@2.25PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Burgos60% probability@1.84PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BurgosX2 · Real Sociedad B
    Bet365
    EV+ 8%
    1.80    		3.304.75
    Betsafe
    EV+ 8%
    1.80    		3.254.40
    Betsson
    EV+ 8%
    1.80    		3.254.40
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 8%
    1.80    		3.254.40
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    1.84    		3.494.75

    Odds updated 31 Aug, 10:26

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    54 %49 %

    1.76 → 1.84

    X+2 %
    31 %26 %

    3.41 → 3.49

    2-7 %
    22 %17 %

    5.11 → 4.75

    Over 2,5+2 %
    45 %40 %

    2.20 → 2.25

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Burgos 1Draw 1Real Sociedad B 0
    Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 0,5)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Burgos
    Real Sociedad B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Burgos (3–3)
    Real Sociedad B (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Burgos
    Sergio Gonzalez: 106 passningar, xT 0.31GonzalezGrego Sierra: 79 passningar, xT 0.07SierraAlberto Dadie Izagirre: 70 passningar, xT 0.35IzagirreIgnasi Vilarrasa: 67 passningar, xT 0.25VilarrasaJose Gragera: 59 passningar, xT -0.02GrageraCurro Sanchez: 55 passningar, xT 0.35SanchezAnder Cantero: 48 passningar, xT 0.04CanteroJavier Llabrés Exposito: 43 passningar, xT 0.02ExpositoSaul Del Cerro: 36 passningar, xT 0.02CerroDavid Gonzalez: 31 passningar, xT 0.02GonzalezMarcelo Expósito Jiménez: 25 passningar, xT 0.04Jiménez
    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 76 passningar, xT 0.11KitaUnax Agote: 60 passningar, xT 0.14AgoteTomás Carbonell del Rio: 56 passningar, xT 0.07RioJon Garro Larrarte: 54 passningar, xT 0.11LarrarteIker Calderon Balda: 49 passningar, xT 0.11BaldaAitor Fraga: 40 passningar, xT 0.08FragaLander Astiazaran: 34 passningar, xT 0.14AstiazaranGorka Gorosabel: 29 passningar, xT 0GorosabelIbai Aguirre Basurco: 26 passningar, xT 0BasurcoJon Eceizabarrena Rezola: 23 passningar, xT -0.03RezolaJon Balda: 15 passningar, xT 0.01Balda
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Burgos
    Sergio Gonzalez: 106 passningar, xT 0.31GonzalezGrego Sierra: 79 passningar, xT 0.07SierraAlberto Dadie Izagirre: 70 passningar, xT 0.35IzagirreIgnasi Vilarrasa: 67 passningar, xT 0.25VilarrasaJose Gragera: 59 passningar, xT -0.02GrageraCurro Sanchez: 55 passningar, xT 0.35SanchezAnder Cantero: 48 passningar, xT 0.04CanteroJavier Llabrés Exposito: 43 passningar, xT 0.02ExpositoSaul Del Cerro: 36 passningar, xT 0.02CerroDavid Gonzalez: 31 passningar, xT 0.02GonzalezMarcelo Expósito Jiménez: 25 passningar, xT 0.04Jiménez
    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 76 passningar, xT 0.11KitaUnax Agote: 60 passningar, xT 0.14AgoteTomás Carbonell del Rio: 56 passningar, xT 0.07RioJon Garro Larrarte: 54 passningar, xT 0.11LarrarteIker Calderon Balda: 49 passningar, xT 0.11BaldaAitor Fraga: 40 passningar, xT 0.08FragaLander Astiazaran: 34 passningar, xT 0.14AstiazaranGorka Gorosabel: 29 passningar, xT 0GorosabelIbai Aguirre Basurco: 26 passningar, xT 0BasurcoJon Eceizabarrena Rezola: 23 passningar, xT -0.03RezolaJon Balda: 15 passningar, xT 0.01Balda

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBurgosReal Sociedad B
    Points33
    xPoints2.11.9
    xG per match0.940.85
    xGA per match1.21.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.42
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.2
    Playing styleBurgosReal Sociedad B
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.40.3
    xT per match1.10.65
    xTA per match0.961
    Won balls, offensive half2323
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.360.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.18
    Entries into the box per match810
    Entries into the box against1112
    Pass completion %0.740.67
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.63
    Passes per match342251
    Passes against per match342450
    Switches of play per match22.614
    Long balls per match3126
    Set piecesBurgosReal Sociedad B
    xG from free kicks0.170
    Corners per match2.55.5
    Corners against per match5.46.5
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.820.62
    OtherBurgosReal Sociedad B
    Throw-in control0.710.69
    The goalkeepersAnder Cantero (Burgos)Aitor Fraga (Real Sociedad B)
    Saves1010
    Save %77%83%
    xG prevented78%74%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Burgos
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Real Sociedad B
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Burgos vs Real Sociedad B according to our model?

    The model gives Burgos a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burgos 60%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad B 15%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.