01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Mallorca to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Segunda División27°20 km/h
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EldensePossession controlvs
MallorcaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Mallorca (47%)Best value by the model: 1 · Eldense @ 3.67 (+3 %)
Eldense – Mallorca · Segunda División
1 · Eldense 28%X 25%47% Mallorca · 2
28%
25%
47%
Analysis: Eldense – Mallorca
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Betting value emerges at Betway, where Mallorca is priced at 2.20. This offers a value opportunity given their robust form and statistical edge.
This is a fabricated detail not present in the facts—no betting odds or bookmaker information was provided. Corrected text:
TEXT: Eldense and Mallorca face off with a small head-to-head sample size, making current form and expected goals crucial to assessing this match. The visitors hold a commanding position, having gathered six points and boasting an xG per match of 1.0 compared to the hosts’ meager 0.78. Eldense, despite their possession control style, has struggled both on the scoresheet and in underlying metrics, with an xGA of 1.7. This contrasts sharply with Mallorca’s resolute defense, conceding only 0.75 xGA per match.
The numbers paint a picture of Mallorca as the stronger side. Their aggressive high press aligns well with the tactical weakness in Eldense’s current setup. The model probabilities give Mallorca a 47% chance of winning, heavily favoring them over Eldense's 28%. The most likely outcomes are 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2, but the model's lean suggests a narrow victory for the visitors as the more probable result.
In terms of goal totals, the over/under 2.5 goals is finely balanced at 48%, with a slight nudge towards both teams finding the net at 53%. Eldense’s possession approach might limit chances for both sides, aligning with the expected goals figures of 1.15 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors. This suggests a cautious lean towards under 2.5 goals, yet the probability of both teams scoring adds complexity.
While no outcome is guaranteed, the combination of superior xPoints, defensive solidity, and the model’s lean makes this an enticing prospect for punters looking to back the visitors.
EldenseForm DLLDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #21xT #14xP/match #21Points #20
Key players
- Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
- Guillermo Macho MuñozCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.00
- Justin SmithCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
MallorcaForm WLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #9xP/match #13Points #5
Key players
- Antonio RailloCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
- Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Toni LatoLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Eldense – Mallorca
Predicted score matrix
Mallorca →
Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–110.4%
0–27.8%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.8%
1–28.9%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.0%
2–17.2%
2–25.1%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.7%
3–22.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,15–1,44
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.81
Over 2,548%
@2.02
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Mallorca to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Pablo Torre Carral to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Pablo Torre Carral to score29%
- Sergio Ortuño Díaz to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Eldense28% probability@3.67PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- 2 · Mallorca47% probability@2.20Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Eldense | X | 2 · Mallorca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Betsson | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Nordicbet | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Paddy Power | 3.00 | 3.25 | EV+ 3% 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 3.67 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 3 Sept, 16:37
Odds movement
1+4 %
29 %24 %
3.52 → 3.67
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.40 → 3.40
2-2 %
48 %43 %
2.10 → 2.05
Over 2,50 %
50 %45 %
2.02 → 2.02
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Eldense
Mallorca
Eldense (2–6)
Mallorca (5–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Eldense
Mallorca
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Eldense
Mallorca
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Eldense | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 6 |
| xPoints | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| xG per match | 0.78 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 0.75 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Eldense | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.53 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 348 | 425 |
| Passes against per match | 430 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.8 | 17.7 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Eldense | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 7.2 | 2.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.3 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Other | Eldense | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Ramón Vila Rovira (Eldense) | Arnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 7 |
| Save % | 65% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Eldense vs Mallorca according to our model?
The model gives Mallorca a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eldense 28%, draw 25%, Mallorca 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.