CD Tenerife vs Leganés: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Segunda División13 September 202622°11 km/h

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CD TenerifePossession control

LeganésLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · CD Tenerife (38%)

1 · CD Tenerife 38%X 34%29% Leganés · 2

38%

34%

29%

Analysis: CD Tenerife – Leganés

Marcus Johansson · 8 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The standout betting angle here is the under 2.5 goals market at 64% probability. With most bookmakers offering odds around 1.70 for this, it holds potential value given the expected tactical battle and both teams' scoring records.

Corrected text:

With CD Tenerife's possession-oriented approach facing off against Leganés' low-block and direct counter-attacks, this matchup presents a classic stylistic clash. The model gives a slight edge to Tenerife with a 38% win probability, but the most likely outcome remains a 1-1 draw, reflecting the overall balance and lack of firepower up front.

Tenerife’s control of possession is expected to limit Leganés' chances, as shown by the home side's superior xGA of 0.74 compared to the visitors’ 1.3. This defensive solidity contrasts with Leganés' recent unbeaten streak over five league matches, which could provide them with a psychological edge despite Tenerife's favorable model lean. However, Tenerife’s points tally of 7 compared to their xPoints of 5.5 suggests the home team has actually outperformed its underlying numbers, adding a layer of resilience to their defensive record.

The expected goals are tightly packed, with Tenerife at 1.15 and Leganés at 0.97, pointing towards a cagey affair. This aligns with the under 2.5 goals probability at 64%, implying a low-scoring game is likely. The weather hasn’t been mentioned in the data provided, so there’s no external factor expected to disrupt this pattern.

The minimal head-to-head sample means we can't draw strong conclusions from past meetings. Tenerife’s model-backed advantage must therefore be considered alongside Leganés' current form. In this battle of styles, Tenerife's possession and defensive discipline will likely keep the scoring low, despite Leganés' knack for grinding out results recently.

CD Tenerife

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #22xGA #4xT #21xP/match #12Points #8

Key players

Enric GallegoFxG 0.34 · xT 0.01
Yago SantiagoRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.03

Leganés

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #15xP/match #16Points #4

Key players

Marvelous Antolín GarzónLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
Naim GarciaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Zico BuurmeesterRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: CD Tenerife – Leganés

Predicted score matrix

Leganés →

CD Tenerife →

0–012.4%

0–111.3%

0–25.7%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–013.4%

1–113.8%

1–26.5%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.6%

2–07.9%

2–17.7%

2–23.7%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.0%

3–12.9%

3–21.4%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-111%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,15–0,97

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

012%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,564%

@1.50

Over 2,536%

@2.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance CD Tenerife or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance CD Tenerife or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals64%
Waldo Rubio Marín to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Gonzalo Julián Melero Manzanares to score18%
Seydouba Cissé to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · CD Tenerife	X	2 · Leganés
Betsafe	2.52	2.92	2.85
Betsson	2.52	2.92	2.85
Nordicbet	2.52	2.92	2.85
Pinnacle	2.60	2.96	3.02

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:34

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Leganés win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 3.44 to 3.02 (−12%).

1+12 %

41 %36 %

2.32 → 2.60

X-3 %

34 %29 %

3.04 → 2.96

2-12 %

32 %27 %

3.44 → 3.02

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

CD Leganes are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CD Tenerife

Leganés

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

CD Tenerife (5–3)

Leganés (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Leganés

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Leganés

The teams in numbers

Performance	CD Tenerife	Leganés
Points	7	8
xPoints	5.5	5.1
xG per match	0.64	0.73
xGA per match	0.74	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.05
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.09

Playing style	CD Tenerife	Leganés
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.51	0.24
xT per match	0.56	0.7
xTA per match	0.75	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	32	15
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.25
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	10	16
Pass completion %	0.71	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.73
Passes per match	292	309
Passes against per match	438	466
Switches of play per match	25.6	19.7
Long balls per match	36	25

Set pieces	CD Tenerife	Leganés
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	3.8	1.5
Corners against per match	4.3	7.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.59

Other	CD Tenerife	Leganés
Throw-in control	0.64	0.68

The goalkeepers	Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)	Luca Zinedine Zidane Fernández (Leganés)
Saves	5	9
Save %	63%	100%
xG prevented	40%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

CD Tenerife

Fixtures, form & tips

Leganés

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CD Tenerife vs Leganés according to our model?

The model gives CD Tenerife a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Tenerife 38%, draw 34%, Leganés 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.