Segunda División24°16 km/h

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    FC AndorraFC AndorraPossession control
    0–1
    EibarEibarPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · FC Andorra (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Eibar @ 3.89 (+13 %)

    FC Andorra – Eibar · Segunda División

    1 · FC Andorra 41%X 29%29% Eibar · 2

    Analysis: FC Andorra – Eibar

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    This matchup between FC Andorra and Eibar presents a fascinating clash of playing styles, with both teams leaning heavily towards possession control. The hosts have a slight statistical edge, as reflected in both the xG and xPoints, but the historical head-to-head record – albeit from a small sample of four matches since 2023 – favors Eibar. This tension sets the stage for a tightly-contested battle where Eibar's recent scoring streak, having found the net in nine consecutive league games, could be a decisive factor.

    Statistics suggest FC Andorra holds a narrow advantage in expected goals at 1.47 compared to Eibar's 1.15. The most likely scoreline leans towards a 1-1 draw, sitting at 13%, but the model also gives a nod towards a 1-0 win for the hosts as a plausible outcome. Despite Eibar's head-to-head dominance, FC Andorra's ability to create opportunities quickly after winning possession—evidenced by their higher xG within 8 seconds—is a critical advantage.

    The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely poised, with a 49% probability for over 2.5 goals. While the likelihood of both teams scoring is slightly higher at 53%, the model's figures remain conservative. However, the betting value on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a subtle edge, though only a 1% advantage over the model's valuation. This makes it an option for those looking to capitalize on marginal discrepancies in the market.

    Ultimately, the odds and probabilities suggest a tightly matched contest with FC Andorra holding a slight edge due to their xG metrics. Yet, Eibar's scoring consistency and the small head-to-head sample weigh heavily. For betting enthusiasts, the over 2.5 goals market at 2.08 is the sharpest angle, offering a touch of value in an otherwise evenly matched showdown.

    FC AndorraFC Andorra
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #1xGA #11xT #4xP/match #2Points #14
    Key players
    • Efe AkmanRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
    • Marc BombardoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
    • Marti VilaLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.36
    EibarEibar
    Form LWLLW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #7xP/match #5Points #9
    Key players
    • Jon BautistaFxG 0.66 · xT -0.01
    • Markel Arana MateoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    • Juan Bernat VelascoLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: FC Andorra 41% · Draw 29% · Eibar 29%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - EibarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,62fair 14,64-21 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC AndorraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,12fair 9,06-21 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: FC Andorra – Eibar

    Predicted score matrix

    Eibar →
    FC Andorra →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.6%
    0–18.0%
    0–24.8%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–112.7%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–19.0%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.2-08%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,15
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.82
    Over 2,549%
    @2.06EV+0%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance FC Andorra or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.95

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance FC Andorra or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Lautaro de León Bouzada Billar to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Lautaro de León Bouzada Billar to score20%
    • Jair Amador Silos to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Eibar29% probability@3.89PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • 2 · Eibar29% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
    • 2 · Eibar29% probability@3.45BetssonEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC AndorraX2 · Eibar
    Betsafe2.053.15
    EV+ 0%
    3.45
    Betsson2.053.15
    EV+ 0%
    3.45
    Nordicbet2.053.15
    EV+ 0%
    3.45
    Pinnacle2.093.29
    EV+ 13%
    3.89

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    50 %40 %

    2.20 → 2.09

    X0 %
    34 %24 %

    3.28 → 3.29

    2+15 %
    31 %21 %

    3.38 → 3.89

    Over 2,5-5 %
    52 %42 %

    2.16 → 2.06

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    FC Andorra 0Draw 1Eibar 3
    Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • SD Eibar have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC Andorra
    Eibar
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC Andorra (7–5)
    Eibar (2–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC Andorra
    Diego Alende: 142 passningar, xT 0.06AlendeMarc Bombardo: 131 passningar, xT 0.33BombardoMarc Domènech Costa: 109 passningar, xT 0.05CostaMarti Vila: 99 passningar, xT 0.67VilaPau López Sabata: 88 passningar, xT 0.1SabataThomas Carrique: 84 passningar, xT 0.45CarriqueEfe Akman: 78 passningar, xT 0.07AkmanHugo Solozábal Granados: 44 passningar, xT -0.01GranadosHugo López Cortés: 38 passningar, xT 0.15CortésJordi Cano Jiménez: 20 passningar, xT 0.18JiménezMoró Sidibe Sidibe: 20 passningar, xT -0.02Sidibe
    Eibar
    Anaitz Arbilla: 162 passningar, xT 0.27ArbillaAnder Madariaga: 91 passningar, xT 0.1MadariagaJuan Bernat Velasco: 81 passningar, xT 0.16VelascoAleix Garrido: 66 passningar, xT 0.11GarridoMarkel Arana Mateo: 66 passningar, xT 0.08MateoSergio Cubero: 56 passningar, xT 0.39CuberoSergio Alvarez: 50 passningar, xT 0.12AlvarezJonmi Magunagoitia: 47 passningar, xT 0.03MagunagoitiaUnai Elgezabal Udondo: 41 passningar, xT 0.04UdondoAdu Ares: 34 passningar, xT 0.15AresAlvaro Rodriguez: 30 passningar, xT 0.19Rodriguez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC Andorra
    Diego Alende: 142 passningar, xT 0.06AlendeMarc Bombardo: 131 passningar, xT 0.33BombardoMarc Domènech Costa: 109 passningar, xT 0.05CostaMarti Vila: 99 passningar, xT 0.67VilaPau López Sabata: 88 passningar, xT 0.1SabataThomas Carrique: 84 passningar, xT 0.45CarriqueEfe Akman: 78 passningar, xT 0.07AkmanHugo Solozábal Granados: 44 passningar, xT -0.01GranadosHugo López Cortés: 38 passningar, xT 0.15CortésJordi Cano Jiménez: 20 passningar, xT 0.18JiménezMoró Sidibe Sidibe: 20 passningar, xT -0.02Sidibe
    Eibar
    Anaitz Arbilla: 162 passningar, xT 0.27ArbillaAnder Madariaga: 91 passningar, xT 0.1MadariagaJuan Bernat Velasco: 81 passningar, xT 0.16VelascoAleix Garrido: 66 passningar, xT 0.11GarridoMarkel Arana Mateo: 66 passningar, xT 0.08MateoSergio Cubero: 56 passningar, xT 0.39CuberoSergio Alvarez: 50 passningar, xT 0.12AlvarezJonmi Magunagoitia: 47 passningar, xT 0.03MagunagoitiaUnai Elgezabal Udondo: 41 passningar, xT 0.04UdondoAdu Ares: 34 passningar, xT 0.15AresAlvaro Rodriguez: 30 passningar, xT 0.19Rodriguez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFC AndorraEibar
    Points33
    xPoints43.4
    xG per match2.51.1
    xGA per match0.950.47
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.530.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.07
    Playing styleFC AndorraEibar
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.760.43
    xT per match1.41
    xTA per match0.710.59
    Won balls, offensive half3125
    Pressing intensity0.170.25
    Pressing efficiency0.50.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.480.33
    Entries into the box per match1513
    Entries into the box against811
    Pass completion %0.80.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.71
    Passes per match454426
    Passes against per match222362
    Switches of play per match4634.8
    Long balls per match4332
    Set piecesFC AndorraEibar
    xG from free kicks0.020
    Corners per match36
    Corners against per match34
    xG per corner0.050.03
    xGA per corner against0.090.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.75
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.62
    OtherFC AndorraEibar
    Throw-in control0.630.72
    The goalkeepersPau López Sabata (FC Andorra)Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)
    Saves35
    Save %75%63%
    xG prevented66%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC Andorra
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Eibar
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC Andorra vs Eibar according to our model?

    The model gives FC Andorra a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Andorra 41%, draw 29%, Eibar 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.