Mallorca vs Sabadell: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Segunda División13 September 202623°19 km/h

MallorcaPossession & high press

SabadellPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Mallorca (62%)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Mallorca 62%X 22%15% Sabadell · 2

62%

22%

15%

Analysis: Mallorca – Sabadell

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Mallorca's defensive solidity has been a cornerstone of their game, underscored by an impressive xGA of 0.76 per match. This setup will likely be crucial against Sabadell, who come in with the momentum of an xG of 1.8 per game. Despite Sabadell's apparent offensive edge, the hosts' ability to stifle opponents can't be ignored. The expected goals suggest a closely contested affair where Mallorca's defense might just nullify Sabadell’s attacking prowess.

For the home side, the model suggests a 62% probability of victory, supported by solid defensive numbers and a possession style that could choke Sabadell's opportunities. With their high press, Mallorca will aim to control the game and frustrate their opponents into submission. The most probable scoreline of 1-0 highlights a match that will likely hinge on defensive and tactical discipline.

Interestingly, Sabadell has managed to collect more points so far, with eight compared to Mallorca's seven, and boasts a better xPoints tally at 8.8 versus 5.2. Yet, it's essential to weigh Mallorca's home advantage and defensive metrics more heavily here, especially given the small head-to-head sample between these teams.

The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards the underside with just a 42% probability for over, aligning with the model's expectation of a low-scoring encounter. Given Mallorca’s defensive strengths and Sabadell’s controlled style, the likelihood of a goal-fest is minimal.

In terms of betting angles, the real value lies with the home side. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.65 for a Mallorca win, providing a 3% edge over the model's 62% probability. For those seeking a prudent play, backing Mallorca to secure a narrow victory is a bet firmly rooted in the numbers.

Mallorca

Form WLWD

League ranking xG #13xGA #5xT #8xP/match #14Points #7

Key players

Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Toni LatoLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
Antonio RailloCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09

Sabadell

Form DDWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #18xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Quadri LiameedFxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Nicholas Selson GioacchiniFxG 0.89 · xT 0.09
Joel Priego BorregoFxG 0.20 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Mallorca – Sabadell

Predicted score matrix

Sabadell →

Mallorca →

0–09.8%

0–16.4%

0–22.4%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.1%

1–015.2%

1–111.4%

1–24.0%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.8%

2–19.1%

2–23.3%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–07.0%

3–15.0%

3–21.8%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–04.2%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-015%
2.2-013%
3.1-111%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,64–0,71

Both teams to score

41%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.66

Over 2,542%

@2.40EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Mallorca to win62%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Mallorca to win62%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Vedat Muriqi to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score41%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Vedat Muriqi to score34%
Albert Orriols Cerarols to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Mallorca62% probability@1.80Bet365EV+12%reference odds
1 · Mallorca62% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
1 · Mallorca62% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mallorca	X	2 · Sabadell
Bet365	EV+ 12% 1.80	3.20	4.50
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 1.70	3.35	4.80
Betsson	EV+ 6% 1.70	3.35	4.80
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 1.70	3.35	4.80
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 1.70	3.67	5.04

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:34

Odds movement

1+2 %

58 %53 %

1.67 → 1.70

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.66 → 3.67

2-6 %

21 %16 %

5.36 → 5.04

Over 2,5+2 %

45 %40 %

2.19 → 2.23

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mallorca

Sabadell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mallorca (5–2)

Sabadell (4–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mallorca

Sabadell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mallorca

Sabadell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mallorca	Sabadell
Points	7	8
xPoints	5.2	8.8
xG per match	0.96	1.8
xGA per match	0.76	0.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.17

Playing style	Mallorca	Sabadell
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.36
Field tilt	0.63	0.41
xT per match	0.8	0.68
xTA per match	0.61	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	24	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.3
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	7	9
Pass completion %	0.82	0.59
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.53
Passes per match	416	198
Passes against per match	330	388
Switches of play per match	18.1	12.8
Long balls per match	26	22

Set pieces	Mallorca	Sabadell
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	3.8	4.4
Corners against per match	4.3	3.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.69

Other	Mallorca	Sabadell
Throw-in control	0.63	0.64

The goalkeepers	Arnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca)	Diego Licinio Lázaro Fuoli (Sabadell)
Saves	10	10
Save %	91%	83%
xG prevented	73%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mallorca

Fixtures, form & tips

Sabadell

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mallorca vs Sabadell according to our model?

The model gives Mallorca a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mallorca 62%, draw 22%, Sabadell 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 41% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.