Segunda División22°22 km/h

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    Sporting GijónSporting GijónPossession control
    vs
    EldenseEldensePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Sporting Gijón (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Eldense @ 5.02 (+15 %)

    Sporting Gijón – Eldense · Segunda División

    1 · Sporting Gijón 50%X 27%23% Eldense · 2

    Analysis: Sporting Gijón – Eldense

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Possession will be the name of the game as Sporting Gijón hosts Eldense in the Segunda División. Both teams favor a control-based style, setting the stage for a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair. The numbers suggest a slight edge for the hosts, with a 50% probability of victory and an expected goals tally of 1.65 compared to Eldense's 1.03. These figures align with the most likely outcomes of 1-1 and 1-0, highlighting a close contest.

    Sporting's recent head-to-head dominance over Eldense, albeit in a small sample size of four matches, presents a backdrop of confidence. Sporting has never lost to Eldense since 2023, securing three wins and a draw. This historical edge complements their season form, where they lead in both points and expected metrics. Gijón's defensive solidity, with an xGA of 0.93 per match, contrasts sharply with Eldense's leakier defense, conceding an xGA of 1.5.

    Despite the lopsided numbers, the betting market offers intriguing value on the visitors. Eldense's odds of 4.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present an 8% edge over the model's assessment, which rates their chances at 23%. This discrepancy highlights potential value for those eyeing an upset, though it's a gamble against the prevailing odds and statistical trends.

    The over/under on goals is evenly poised at 50%, suggesting neither a goal drought nor a flood. With both teams likely to find the net (52% probability), a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable scoreline. Yet, the sharpest angle lies in the value bets on Eldense's long-shot victory — a contrarian play against the Gijón-favored metrics.

    Sporting GijónSporting Gijón
    Form WDWWL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #9xP/match #6Points #11
    Key players
    • Juan OteroFxG 0.28 · xT 0.01
    • Aimar Duñabeitia MadariagaCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
    • Guille RosasRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
    EldenseEldense
    Form LLDLD
    League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #12xP/match #19Points #20
    Key players
    • Fidel Chaves de la TorreRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
    • Justin SmithCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
    • David Ruiz MonteroLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Sporting Gijón – Eldense

    Predicted score matrix

    Eldense →
    Sporting Gijón →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–16.7%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–112.0%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.1%
    3–15.3%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.1%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,65–1,03
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.69
    Over 2,550%
    @2.18EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sporting Gijón to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.85

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sporting Gijón to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score32%
    • Alejandro Bernal Carreras to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Eldense23% probability@5.02PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    • 2 · Eldense23% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    • 2 · Eldense23% probability@4.80BetssonEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sporting GijónX2 · Eldense
    Betsafe1.703.40
    EV+ 10%
    4.80
    Betsson1.703.40
    EV+ 10%
    4.80
    Nordicbet1.703.40
    EV+ 10%
    4.80
    Pinnacle1.723.59
    EV+ 15%
    5.02

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.83 to 1.69 (−8%).

    1+1 %
    58 %53 %

    1.70 → 1.72

    X-4 %
    28 %23 %

    3.75 → 3.59

    2+2 %
    21 %16 %

    4.94 → 5.02

    Over 2,5+10 %
    48 %43 %

    1.99 → 2.18

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Sporting Gijón 3Draw 1Eldense 0
    Goals: 5–1 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sporting Gijón
    Eldense
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sporting Gijón (2–2)
    Eldense (2–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sporting Gijón
    Pablo Vazquez: 211 passningar, xT 0.27VazquezAlexandre Corredera Alardi: 197 passningar, xT 0.04AlardiGuille Rosas: 170 passningar, xT 0.38RosasAimar Duñabeitia Madariaga: 130 passningar, xT 0.19MadariagaAndrés Cuenca Cejudo: 109 passningar, xT 0.16CejudoNacho Martin: 103 passningar, xT 0.05MartinRuben Yanez: 87 passningar, xT 0.11YanezCesar Gelabert: 79 passningar, xT -0.02GelabertManuel Rodríguez Paz: 76 passningar, xT -0.04PazNikita Iosifov: 60 passningar, xT 0.48IosifovJuan Otero: 56 passningar, xT 0.03Otero
    Eldense
    Floris Smand: 155 passningar, xT 0.13SmandJustin Smith: 152 passningar, xT 0.21SmithGuillermo Macho Muñoz: 145 passningar, xT 0.05MuñozDavid Ruiz Montero: 142 passningar, xT 0.16MonteroJesús Clemente: 141 passningar, xT 0.12ClementeFidel Chaves de la Torre: 123 passningar, xT 0.51TorreÁlex Serradell Garralaga: 113 passningar, xT 0.28GarralagaRamón Vila Rovira: 82 passningar, xT 0.08RoviraJavier Olaizola Jimenez: 76 passningar, xT 0.18JimenezJordi Martin: 56 passningar, xT 0.06MartinJavi Martinez: 23 passningar, xT 0.14Martinez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sporting Gijón
    Pablo Vazquez: 211 passningar, xT 0.27VazquezAlexandre Corredera Alardi: 197 passningar, xT 0.04AlardiGuille Rosas: 170 passningar, xT 0.38RosasAimar Duñabeitia Madariaga: 130 passningar, xT 0.19MadariagaAndrés Cuenca Cejudo: 109 passningar, xT 0.16CejudoNacho Martin: 103 passningar, xT 0.05MartinRuben Yanez: 87 passningar, xT 0.11YanezCesar Gelabert: 79 passningar, xT -0.02GelabertManuel Rodríguez Paz: 76 passningar, xT -0.04PazNikita Iosifov: 60 passningar, xT 0.48IosifovJuan Otero: 56 passningar, xT 0.03Otero
    Eldense
    Floris Smand: 155 passningar, xT 0.13SmandJustin Smith: 152 passningar, xT 0.21SmithGuillermo Macho Muñoz: 145 passningar, xT 0.05MuñozDavid Ruiz Montero: 142 passningar, xT 0.16MonteroJesús Clemente: 141 passningar, xT 0.12ClementeFidel Chaves de la Torre: 123 passningar, xT 0.51TorreÁlex Serradell Garralaga: 113 passningar, xT 0.28GarralagaRamón Vila Rovira: 82 passningar, xT 0.08RoviraJavier Olaizola Jimenez: 76 passningar, xT 0.18JimenezJordi Martin: 56 passningar, xT 0.06MartinJavi Martinez: 23 passningar, xT 0.14Martinez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSporting GijónEldense
    Points72
    xPoints5.94.1
    xG per match10.79
    xGA per match0.931.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.2
    Playing styleSporting GijónEldense
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.560.56
    xT per match0.80.72
    xTA per match0.650.86
    Won balls, offensive half2723
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.350.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.19
    Entries into the box per match911
    Entries into the box against910
    Pass completion %0.760.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.69
    Passes per match393330
    Passes against per match352420
    Switches of play per match23.423.6
    Long balls per match2728
    Set piecesSporting GijónEldense
    xG from free kicks0.010
    Corners per match2.66.6
    Corners against per match4.14.4
    xG per corner0.070.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.67
    OtherSporting GijónEldense
    Throw-in control0.650.64
    The goalkeepersRuben Yanez (Sporting Gijón)Ramón Vila Rovira (Eldense)
    Saves817
    Save %80%74%
    xG prevented71%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sporting Gijón
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Eldense
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sporting Gijón vs Eldense according to our model?

    The model gives Sporting Gijón a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting Gijón 50%, draw 27%, Eldense 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.