Segunda División23°2,3 mm27 km/h

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    Sporting GijónSporting GijónPossession control
    0–2
    GironaGironaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Sporting Gijón (37%)

    Sporting Gijón – Girona · Segunda División

    1 · Sporting Gijón 37%X 28%35% Girona · 2

    Analysis: Sporting Gijón – Girona

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    37% is the standout figure in this matchup: the model gives Sporting Gijón a slight edge over Girona. With both teams showing similar win probabilities, the clash is expected to be finely balanced. The match is likely to be cagey, as the most probable outcomes sit at 1-1 and 1-0. The hosts hold a psychological advantage, being unbeaten in their last six league fixtures, which may bolster their confidence.

    Despite Girona's higher expected goals per match at 1.4 compared to Sporting's 0.65, the expected goals against figures suggest a tight contest. Both teams maintain solid defensive records, with Girona's xGA at 0.87 slightly better than Gijón's 0.92. This defensive stability, combined with a modest attacking output, suggests a game that could easily swing on a single goal.

    For those looking for value, the home side offers a 2% edge at odds of 2.8 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. While nothing is guaranteed, this EV+ situation highlights a potential opportunity for bettors who trust the model's lean towards Sporting's advantage. A 1-0 victory for the hosts remains a tempting prediction, with the over/under 2.5 goals market sitting at a coin-flip 50%, reflecting a genuinely balanced scoring outlook.

    Sporting GijónSporting Gijón
    Form WWDWW
    League ranking xG #22xGA #12xT #21xP/match #12Points #4
    Key players
    • Juan OteroFxG 0.30 · xT 0.00
    • Guille RosasRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Pablo VazquezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
    GironaGirona
    Form DLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #2xP/match #8Points #14
    Key players
    • Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    • Abel RuizFxG 0.22 · xT -0.02
    • Bryan GilFxG 0.48 · xT -0.02
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sporting Gijón 37% · Draw 28% · Girona 35%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sporting de GijónBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,58fair 9,51+1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - GironaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,19fair 12,14-33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sporting Gijón – Girona

    Predicted score matrix

    Girona →
    Sporting Gijón →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–18.3%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–09.4%
    1–112.6%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–18.7%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–14.1%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,42–1,26
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.87
    Over 2,550%
    @2.01EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sporting Gijón or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.07

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sporting Gijón or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Dawda Camara Sankhare to score28%
    • Yangel Clemente Herrera Ravelo to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Sporting Gijón37% probability@3.01PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Sporting Gijón37% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 1 · Sporting Gijón37% probability@2.80BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sporting GijónX2 · Girona
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    2.80    		3.152.40
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    2.80    		3.152.40
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    2.80    		3.152.40
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    3.01    		3.352.47

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 04:33

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    35 %30 %

    2.90 → 3.01

    X+5 %
    32 %27 %

    3.20 → 3.35

    2-2 %
    41 %36 %

    2.52 → 2.47

    Over 2,5+1 %
    51 %46 %

    2.00 → 2.01

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Real Sporting de Gijón are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sporting Gijón
    Girona
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sporting Gijón (2–0)
    Girona (7–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sporting Gijón
    Pablo Vazquez: 151 passningar, xT 0.14VazquezAlexandre Corredera Alardi: 126 passningar, xT -0.04AlardiGuille Rosas: 117 passningar, xT 0.17RosasAimar Duñabeitia Madariaga: 76 passningar, xT 0.11MadariagaManuel Rodríguez Paz: 76 passningar, xT -0.04PazRuben Yanez: 59 passningar, xT 0.08YanezAndrés Cuenca Cejudo: 59 passningar, xT 0.17CejudoCesar Gelabert: 56 passningar, xT 0.03GelabertNacho Martin: 55 passningar, xT 0.03MartinDiego Sanchez: 53 passningar, xT 0.09SanchezNikita Iosifov: 44 passningar, xT 0.4Iosifov
    Girona
    Alejandro Frances: 180 passningar, xT 0.89FrancesFran Beltrán: 171 passningar, xT 0.14BeltránAlex Moreno: 159 passningar, xT 1.44MorenoHolmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz: 118 passningar, xT 0.05MuñozArnau Martinez: 105 passningar, xT 0.14MartinezIvan Morante: 97 passningar, xT 0.13MoranteJuan Arango Junior: 84 passningar, xT 0.11JuniorPaulo Gazzaniga: 78 passningar, xT 0.01GazzanigaMin-Su Kim: 64 passningar, xT 0.33KimIzan González Muñoz: 55 passningar, xT -0.02MuñozBryan Gil: 54 passningar, xT 0.05Gil
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sporting Gijón
    Pablo Vazquez: 151 passningar, xT 0.14VazquezAlexandre Corredera Alardi: 126 passningar, xT -0.04AlardiGuille Rosas: 117 passningar, xT 0.17RosasAimar Duñabeitia Madariaga: 76 passningar, xT 0.11MadariagaManuel Rodríguez Paz: 76 passningar, xT -0.04PazRuben Yanez: 59 passningar, xT 0.08YanezAndrés Cuenca Cejudo: 59 passningar, xT 0.17CejudoCesar Gelabert: 56 passningar, xT 0.03GelabertNacho Martin: 55 passningar, xT 0.03MartinDiego Sanchez: 53 passningar, xT 0.09SanchezNikita Iosifov: 44 passningar, xT 0.4Iosifov
    Girona
    Alejandro Frances: 180 passningar, xT 0.89FrancesFran Beltrán: 171 passningar, xT 0.14BeltránAlex Moreno: 159 passningar, xT 1.44MorenoHolmes Júnior Zamorano Muñoz: 118 passningar, xT 0.05MuñozArnau Martinez: 105 passningar, xT 0.14MartinezIvan Morante: 97 passningar, xT 0.13MoranteJuan Arango Junior: 84 passningar, xT 0.11JuniorPaulo Gazzaniga: 78 passningar, xT 0.01GazzanigaMin-Su Kim: 64 passningar, xT 0.33KimIzan González Muñoz: 55 passningar, xT -0.02MuñozBryan Gil: 54 passningar, xT 0.05Gil

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSporting GijónGirona
    Points74
    xPoints4.24.5
    xG per match0.651.4
    xGA per match0.920.87
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.10.37
    Playing styleSporting GijónGirona
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.470.65
    xT per match0.461.4
    xTA per match0.610.59
    Won balls, offensive half2424
    Pressing intensity0.220.19
    Pressing efficiency0.350.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.25
    Entries into the box per match614
    Entries into the box against86
    Pass completion %0.730.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.78
    Passes per match353457
    Passes against per match363343
    Switches of play per match20.132.1
    Long balls per match2536
    Set piecesSporting GijónGirona
    xG from free kicks0.010.13
    Corners per match25.3
    Corners against per match5.50.99
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620
    OtherSporting GijónGirona
    Throw-in control0.610.8
    The goalkeepersRuben Yanez (Sporting Gijón)Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)
    Saves76
    Save %100%55%
    xG prevented100%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sporting Gijón
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Girona
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sporting Gijón vs Girona according to our model?

    The model gives Sporting Gijón a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting Gijón 37%, draw 28%, Girona 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.