Segunda División26°0,1 mm24 km/h

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    Real ValladolidReal ValladolidBalanced & physical
    vs
    FC AndorraFC AndorraPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Real Valladolid (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · FC Andorra @ 3.05 (+7 %)

    Real Valladolid – FC Andorra · Segunda División

    1 · Real Valladolid 38%X 27%35% FC Andorra · 2

    Analysis: Real Valladolid – FC Andorra

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Real Valladolid's defensive rigidity will be tested against FC Andorra's possession-based and high-press style. Andorra has proven capable of controlling the tempo, which could disrupt the physical approach of the home side. With Andorra winning both head-to-head encounters since 2023, albeit a small sample size that doesn't overshadow the broader tactical narrative, their approach has historical success.

    The xG data tilts sharply in Andorra's favor, creating a compelling picture of their attacking potency, averaging 2.1 xG per match compared to Valladolid’s 0.85. This disparity highlights the visitors' clinical edge in front of goal, further strengthened by their superior xPoints (5.5 against Valladolid's 3.9). The visitors' efficient defense also shines through with an xGA of 0.75 per match, underlining their ability to stifle opposition attacks effectively.

    Despite Valladolid's balanced approach, their scoring struggles are evident, and they may find it challenging to break down Andorra's disciplined backline. Yet, the model still leans slightly towards the hosts, attributing them a 38% chance of winning, likely factoring in a potential regression to the mean for Andorra’s strong start. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 show a game that could go either way but lean towards low-margin outcomes.

    With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability of both teams scoring, the numbers suggest goals might be hard to come by, but not impossible. The expected goals for both sides stand at an identical 1.34, indicating a tight contest with slender margins.

    The sharpest betting angle here lies in the slight value found in FC Andorra's ability to leverage their tactical strengths. Their edge in recent form and xG statistics points towards them potentially maintaining their unbeaten streak against Valladolid. If considering a flutter, Pinnacle offers odds of 2.85 for an Andorra win, which might be an attractive option given these factors.

    Real ValladolidReal Valladolid
    Form LLLLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #15xP/match #14Points #19
    Key players
    • Yeray CabanzonRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.22
    • Julien PonceauCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
    • Ivan AlejoRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    FC AndorraFC Andorra
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #1xP/match #2Points #15
    Key players
    • Thomas CarriqueRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.27
    • Efe AkmanCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.15
    • Marc BombardoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19

    Match prediction: Real Valladolid – FC Andorra

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Andorra →
    Real Valladolid →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.3%
    0–18.8%
    0–26.1%
    0–32.7%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–112.7%
    1–28.2%
    1–33.7%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.2%
    2–18.3%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,34–1,34
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.79
    Over 2,550%
    @2.08EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Real Valladolid or draw (1X)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.17

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Real Valladolid or draw (1X)63%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Víctor Andrés Meseguer Cavas to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Lautaro de León Bouzada Billar to score27%
    • Sergio Molina Beloqui to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · FC Andorra35% probability@3.05PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    • Over 2.550% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · FC Andorra35% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Real ValladolidX2 · FC Andorra
    Betsafe2.353.15
    EV+ 0%
    2.85
    Betsson2.353.15
    EV+ 0%
    2.85
    Nordicbet2.353.15
    EV+ 0%
    2.85
    Pinnacle2.493.25
    EV+ 7%
    3.05

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 05:19

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    41 %36 %

    2.52 → 2.49

    X-1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.27 → 3.25

    2+7 %
    35 %30 %

    2.86 → 3.05

    Over 2,5+5 %
    50 %45 %

    1.98 → 2.08

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Real Valladolid 0Draw 0FC Andorra 2
    Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Real Valladolid
    FC Andorra
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Real Valladolid (1–4)
    FC Andorra (7–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Real Valladolid
    Julien Ponceau: 198 passningar, xT 0.35PonceauDavid Torres: 147 passningar, xT 0.16TorresRamón Martínez: 141 passningar, xT 0.11MartínezIvan Alejo: 111 passningar, xT 0.23AlejoLuis Chacon: 99 passningar, xT 0.04ChaconYeray Cabanzon: 91 passningar, xT 0.51CabanzonThiago Ojeda: 90 passningar, xT 0.04OjedaÁlvaro Aceves Catalina: 86 passningar, xT 0.13CatalinaIvan Garriel: 72 passningar, xT 0.06GarrielVíctor Fernández Durán: 53 passningar, xT -0.02DuránCarlos Clerc Martínez: 52 passningar, xT 0.01Martínez
    FC Andorra
    Marc Bombardo: 226 passningar, xT 0.54BombardoDiego Alende: 219 passningar, xT 0.14AlendeMarti Vila: 163 passningar, xT 0.82VilaMarc Domènech Costa: 160 passningar, xT 0.11CostaEfe Akman: 143 passningar, xT 0.22AkmanThomas Carrique: 143 passningar, xT 0.77CarriquePau López Sabata: 133 passningar, xT 0.17SabataSergio Molina: 76 passningar, xT 0.33MolinaHugo López Cortés: 66 passningar, xT 0.01CortésHugo Solozábal Granados: 66 passningar, xT 0.08GranadosJordi Cano Jiménez: 47 passningar, xT 0.16Jiménez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Real Valladolid
    Julien Ponceau: 198 passningar, xT 0.35PonceauDavid Torres: 147 passningar, xT 0.16TorresRamón Martínez: 141 passningar, xT 0.11MartínezIvan Alejo: 111 passningar, xT 0.23AlejoLuis Chacon: 99 passningar, xT 0.04ChaconYeray Cabanzon: 91 passningar, xT 0.51CabanzonThiago Ojeda: 90 passningar, xT 0.04OjedaÁlvaro Aceves Catalina: 86 passningar, xT 0.13CatalinaIvan Garriel: 72 passningar, xT 0.06GarrielVíctor Fernández Durán: 53 passningar, xT -0.02DuránCarlos Clerc Martínez: 52 passningar, xT 0.01Martínez
    FC Andorra
    Marc Bombardo: 226 passningar, xT 0.54BombardoDiego Alende: 219 passningar, xT 0.14AlendeMarti Vila: 163 passningar, xT 0.82VilaMarc Domènech Costa: 160 passningar, xT 0.11CostaEfe Akman: 143 passningar, xT 0.22AkmanThomas Carrique: 143 passningar, xT 0.77CarriquePau López Sabata: 133 passningar, xT 0.17SabataSergio Molina: 76 passningar, xT 0.33MolinaHugo López Cortés: 66 passningar, xT 0.01CortésHugo Solozábal Granados: 66 passningar, xT 0.08GranadosJordi Cano Jiménez: 47 passningar, xT 0.16Jiménez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceReal ValladolidFC Andorra
    Points13
    xPoints3.95.5
    xG per match0.852.1
    xGA per match0.830.75
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.070.45
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.24
    Playing styleReal ValladolidFC Andorra
    Build-up efficiency0.290.32
    Field tilt0.580.86
    xT per match0.661.4
    xTA per match0.440.64
    Won balls, offensive half2929
    Pressing intensity0.220.17
    Pressing efficiency0.240.45
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.160.43
    Entries into the box per match1017
    Entries into the box against107
    Pass completion %0.790.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.79
    Passes per match438517
    Passes against per match387189
    Switches of play per match37.846.6
    Long balls per match4042
    Set piecesReal ValladolidFC Andorra
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match4.34
    Corners against per match42.6
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.230.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.62
    OtherReal ValladolidFC Andorra
    Throw-in control0.760.7
    The goalkeepersÁlvaro Aceves Catalina (Real Valladolid)Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra)
    Saves43
    Save %50%60%
    xG prevented27%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Real Valladolid vs FC Andorra according to our model?

    The model gives Real Valladolid a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Real Valladolid 38%, draw 27%, FC Andorra 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.