Eibar vs Granada: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Segunda División6 September 202627°0,1 mm12 km/h

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EibarPossession control

3–0

GranadaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Eibar (51%)

1 · Eibar 51%X 28%21% Granada · 2

51%

28%

21%

Analysis: Eibar – Granada

Erik Lindberg · 5 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Eibar's impressive winning rate at home — 61% from 66 matches — sets the stage for their clash against Granada. The model heavily favors the hosts with a 51% chance of victory, painting a picture of a team comfortable in possession and likely to control the game. Granada, with their penchant for a deep defensive setup, will aim to frustrate.

The head-to-head record since 2023 leans strongly towards Eibar. In four encounters, Eibar have yet to taste defeat, with two wins and two draws. However, this small sample size should be taken with a grain of salt, as season form and expected goals suggest a tighter contest. Eibar's run of scoring in 10 consecutive league matches gives them a certain edge, yet their expected goals tally of 1.37 to Granada's 0.94 indicates margins are slim.

The model's predicted scorelines emphasize a low-scoring affair, with 1-1 and 1-0 both at 13%. The likelihood of under 2.5 goals stands at 59%, aligning with both teams' tactical leanings: controlled possession versus a low defensive block. The probability of both teams scoring is under 50%, suggesting that a cagey match may be on the cards.

Granada may hold a slight advantage in points and expected points, but Eibar’s defensive strengths, highlighted by an xGA of 0.69 compared to Granada’s 0.86, can’t be overlooked. The hosts' ability to keep games tight could be the deciding factor in tilting the balance in their favor.

The most compelling betting angle here is the value on Eibar winning at home, available at odds of 2.02 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a 2% edge according to the model's 51% win probability, this bet appears to offer a calculated return for those who favor a more cautious approach to betting.

Eibar

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #14xGA #3xT #8xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Jon BautistaFxG 0.56 · xT -0.01
Markel Arana MateoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

Granada

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #20xP/match #4Points #2

Key players

Pedro AlemanFxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.33
Manu LamaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Eibar 51% · Draw 28% · Granada 21%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - EibarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,30fair 11,20-26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - GranadaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,24fair 23,22-34 %

Miss

Match prediction: Eibar – Granada

Predicted score matrix

Granada →

Eibar →

0–010.2%

0–18.9%

0–24.4%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–013.1%

1–113.2%

1–26.0%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.3%

2–18.8%

2–24.1%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.2%

3–14.0%

3–21.9%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.0%

4+–11.9%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.0-010%
4.2-09%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,37–0,94

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.64

Over 2,541%

@2.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Eibar to win51%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Eibar to win51%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Javier Martínez Calvo to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Javier Martínez Calvo to score20%
Izan González Muñoz to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Eibar51% probability@2.17PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
1 · Eibar51% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
1 · Eibar51% probability@2.02BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eibar	X	2 · Granada
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.02	3.15	3.60
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.02	3.15	3.60
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.02	3.15	3.60
Pinnacle	EV+ 10% 2.17	3.32	3.62

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1+12 %

49 %44 %

1.93 → 2.17

X-6 %

30 %25 %

3.53 → 3.32

2-7 %

28 %23 %

3.90 → 3.62

Over 2,5+4 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.33

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Eibar 2Draw 2Granada 0

Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
SD Eibar win 61% of their home matches all-time (66 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eibar

Granada

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eibar (3–3)

Granada (5–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eibar

Granada

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eibar

Granada

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eibar	Granada
Points	6	7
xPoints	4.5	5
xG per match	0.87	0.97
xGA per match	0.69	0.86
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.09

Playing style	Eibar	Granada
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.26	0.4
xT per match	0.85	0.52
xTA per match	0.92	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	22	26
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.75	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.59
Passes per match	325	237
Passes against per match	455	394
Switches of play per match	26.1	25
Long balls per match	30	43

Set pieces	Eibar	Granada
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	4.6	4
Corners against per match	4.6	3.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.6

Other	Eibar	Granada
Throw-in control	0.69	0.6

The goalkeepers	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)	Raul Lizoain (Granada)
Saves	10	8
Save %	77%	89%
xG prevented	61%	79%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eibar

Fixtures, form & tips

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eibar vs Granada according to our model?

The model gives Eibar a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eibar 51%, draw 28%, Granada 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.