Almería vs Cádiz: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Segunda División6 September 202628°15 km/h

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AlmeríaPossession control

CádizPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Almería (64%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.76 (+5 %)

1 · Almería 64%X 20%16% Cádiz · 2

64%

20%

16%

Analysis: Almería – Cádiz

Marcus Johansson · 1 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Almería's tactical blueprint, centered on possession control, will be crucial as they aim to leverage their robust home win percentage of 67% as they aim to leverage their robust home win percentage of 67%. The model heavily favors them, assigning a 64% probability of victory against Cádiz. This sets the stage for an intriguing tactical clash, where the visitors' high press might disrupt Almería's rhythm but also leave them vulnerable to counterattacks.

The most likely scorelines of 2-1, 2-0, and 1-1 suggest a match with goals, in line with the over 2.5 goals probability of 60%. Almería's expected goals tally of 2.08 significantly overshadows Cádiz's 1.00, highlighting the home side's attacking potential. Despite having a slight edge in recent head-to-head meetings with two wins, the sample size of four matches isn't enough to draw definitive conclusions. Cádiz's pressing game has its merits, but it may not compensate for their lower expected goals per match compared to their hosts.

Cádiz, however, possess an interesting edge when it comes to creating chances shortly after winning the ball. Their xG within 8 seconds of regaining possession is 0.26, compared to Almería's 0.09. If they can capitalize on these transition opportunities, it could unsettle Almería's possession-based approach.

Betting markets have identified value in the over 2.5 goals line, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 1.7. This aligns with the model's assessment, providing a slight edge of 1%. Thus, while Almería are the clear favorites, the potential for goals on both sides makes the over 2.5 goals bet a compelling one for this contest.

With Almería's superior home form and tactical approach, they seem poised to edge out Cádiz, potentially with a 2-1 scoreline. Yet, the tactical dynamism on display could yield surprises, especially if Cádiz's high press and quick transitions find success.

Almería

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #13xT #11xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Federico BoniniCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Stefan DžodićCMxG 0.37 · xT 0.03
Adrián Embarba BlázquezRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.01

Cádiz

Form WLDDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #22xP/match #4Points #17

Key players

Jose Antonio De La RosaRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.05
Antonio José Cordero CampilloLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Damián Rodríguez SousaCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Almería – Cádiz

Predicted score matrix

Cádiz →

Almería →

0–04.8%

0–14.3%

0–22.3%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.2%

1–19.8%

1–24.8%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.9%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.9%

3–16.9%

3–23.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–05.8%

4+–15.8%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-010%
3.1-110%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,08–1,00

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.07

Over 2,560%

@1.76EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Almería to win64%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Almería to win64%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Adrián Embarba Blázquez to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Adrián Embarba Blázquez to score31%
Moussa Diakité to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.560% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
Over 3.537% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
Over 3.537% probability@2.75BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Almería	X	2 · Cádiz
Betsafe	1.48	4.15	5.70
Betsson	1.48	4.15	5.70
Nordicbet	1.48	4.15	5.70
Pinnacle	1.50	4.32	6.11

Odds updated 4 Sept, 07:38

Odds movement

1-2 %

65 %60 %

1.53 → 1.50

X+1 %

24 %19 %

4.27 → 4.32

2+5 %

18 %13 %

5.81 → 6.11

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.77 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Almería 2Draw 1Cádiz 1

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

UD Almería win 67% of their home matches all-time (45 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Almería

Cádiz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Almería (3–2)

Cádiz (3–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Almería

Cádiz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Almería

Cádiz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Almería	Cádiz
Points	3	3
xPoints	3.4	5
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	1.1	0.76
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.15

Playing style	Almería	Cádiz
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.49	0.46
xT per match	0.72	0.45
xTA per match	0.71	0.56
Won balls, offensive half	22	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.26
Entries into the box per match	9	7
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	435	403
Passes against per match	283	349
Switches of play per match	20.1	22.1
Long balls per match	27	29

Set pieces	Almería	Cádiz
xG from free kicks	0.34	0.01
Corners per match	5.5	4.3
Corners against per match	5.5	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.71

Other	Almería	Cádiz
Throw-in control	0.69	0.63

The goalkeepers	Andres Fernandez (Almería)	Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)
Saves	7	15
Save %	78%	83%
xG prevented	35%	72%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Almería vs Cádiz according to our model?

The model gives Almería a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Almería 64%, draw 20%, Cádiz 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.