Las Palmas vs Leganés: Prediction & Odds (4 Sept 2026)

Segunda División4 September 202625°20 km/h

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Las PalmasPossession control

LeganésLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Las Palmas (57%)

1 · Las Palmas 57%X 26%17% Leganés · 2

57%

26%

17%

Analysis: Las Palmas – Leganés

Marcus Johansson · 31 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The numbers set the stage: Las Palmas have emerged victorious in both of their recent head-to-head encounters with Leganés since 2023. However, with only two matches played, this is a limited sample that doesn't overshadow current form and expected goals. Las Palmas are eyeing another victory at home, backed by their possession-based strategy against a Leganés side known for low defensive blocks and direct counters.

Digging into the season data, the hosts hold a slight advantage despite trailing by a single point in the standings (6 vs. 7). The expected points (xPoints) comparison is even tighter, with Leganés edging out at 3.3 against Las Palmas’ 3.2. Yet, it’s the expected goals metrics that highlight the hosts' potential, with Las Palmas recording an xG of 0.9 per match versus the visitors’ 0.76, and crucially, a better defensive record in xGA (1.3 vs. 1.6).

The probability models suggest a lean towards Las Palmas, with a 57% chance of a home win. Most likely scorelines favor a tight contest: a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for the hosts. Cautious bettors should note the model assigns only a 47% chance to the match seeing over 2.5 goals, hinting at a low-scoring affair where both teams scoring is equally probable.

From a betting perspective, the standout angle is the value on a Las Palmas win, priced at odds of 1.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the 5% edge identified by the model, this appears to be a solid opportunity for those backing the home side to continue their head-to-head dominance and leverage their superior style and stats into a narrow victory.

Las Palmas

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #17xP/match #18Points #6

Key players

Jesé Rodríguez RuizFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
Taisei MiyashiroRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.14

Leganés

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #13xP/match #17Points #3

Key players

Luca Zinedine Zidane FernándezCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Zico BuurmeesterRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
Lalo AguilarCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Las Palmas – Leganés

Predicted score matrix

Leganés →

Las Palmas →

0–08.1%

0–16.1%

0–22.7%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–013.1%

1–111.4%

1–24.6%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.6%

2–19.6%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.7%

3–15.5%

3–22.3%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.2%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.2-012%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,73–0,83

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.71

Over 2,547%

@2.14EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Las Palmas to win57%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Las Palmas to win57%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Manuel Fuster Lázaro to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Manuel Fuster Lázaro to score27%
Seydouba Cissé to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Las Palmas57% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
1 · Las Palmas57% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · Las Palmas57% probability@1.82BetssonEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Las Palmas	X	2 · Leganés
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 1.82	3.30	4.10
Betsson	EV+ 5% 1.82	3.30	4.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 1.82	3.30	4.10
Pinnacle	EV+ 8% 1.88	3.23	4.61

Odds updated 2 Sept, 05:18

Odds movement

1+1 %

53 %48 %

1.86 → 1.88

X-3 %

31 %26 %

3.33 → 3.23

2+1 %

23 %18 %

4.57 → 4.61

Over 2,5+5 %

48 %43 %

2.04 → 2.14

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Las Palmas 2Draw 0Leganés 0

Goals: 3–0 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

UD Las Palmas win 57% of their home matches all-time (23 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Las Palmas

Leganés

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Las Palmas (6–6)

Leganés (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Las Palmas

Leganés

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Las Palmas

Leganés

The teams in numbers

Performance	Las Palmas	Leganés
Points	6	7
xPoints	3.2	3.3
xG per match	0.9	0.76
xGA per match	1.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.02
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.11

Playing style	Las Palmas	Leganés
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.54	0.22
xT per match	0.65	0.68
xTA per match	0.99	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	17	15
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.27
Entries into the box per match	10	7
Entries into the box against	10	19
Pass completion %	0.82	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.71
Passes per match	441	278
Passes against per match	331	493
Switches of play per match	20.8	16.7
Long balls per match	29	24

Set pieces	Las Palmas	Leganés
xG from free kicks	0.03	0
Corners per match	2.7	0.67
Corners against per match	5.4	8.7
xG per corner	0	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	1
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.54

Other	Las Palmas	Leganés
Throw-in control	0.62	0.59

The goalkeepers	José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas)	Luca Zinedine Zidane Fernández (Leganés)
Saves	10	8
Save %	63%	100%
xG prevented	46%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Las Palmas vs Leganés according to our model?

The model gives Las Palmas a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Las Palmas 57%, draw 26%, Leganés 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.