01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Häcken or draw (1X)72%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Swedish AllsvenskanRambergsvallen, Göteborg15°4,8 mm22 km/h
Läs på svenska
HäckenCounter-attacks & crossesvs
MjällbyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Häcken (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mjällby @ 5.11 (+70 %)
Häcken – Mjällby · Swedish Allsvenskan
1 · Häcken 40%X 26%33% Mjällby · 2
40%
26%
33%
Analysis: Häcken – Mjällby
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The tension in this matchup centers around Mjällby's historical dominance over Häcken, having secured five victories in their last seven encounters. However, Häcken's superior current form and expected goals metrics point towards a potential shift in this trend. The hosts not only have a sizable lead in points (32 to 20) but also in expected points (30.8 to 18.3), suggesting they have been more effective on the pitch than their table position might indicate.
Häcken's style of counter-attacks and crossing against Mjällby's possession-based approach could create an intriguing tactical battle. The expected goals figures further sharpen this picture: Häcken's 1.63 xG compared to Mjällby's 1.19 suggests the hosts are more likely to carve out clear-cut chances. Despite the historical head-to-head mismatch, the model still leans towards Häcken with a 40% win probability, reflecting their stronger overall profile this season.
Weather conditions, with 3.9 mm of rain expected, may play a role by suppressing the goal tally, though this factor is already accounted for in the model's numbers. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at 53%, with both teams to score at 56%, hinting at a reasonably open game despite the damp conditions.
While the most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 (12% probability) and 2-1 (9% probability), suggest a tight affair, the sharpest angle lies in the betting market. With Mjällby offered at odds of 5.11 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's significant value if you believe in their historical edge. Rated by the model at a 33% chance to win, these odds provide a lucrative 70% edge. A cautious nod towards Häcken's expected dominance is tempered by this betting opportunity on the visitors.
HäckenForm LWWLD
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #3xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Julius LindbergFxG 0.35 · xT 0.23
- Adrian SvanbäckFxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
- Amor LayouniRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.50
MjällbyForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #7xP/match #15Points #12
Key players
- Abdoulie MannehFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
- Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49
- Jeppe Kjaer JensenRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.25
Match prediction: Häcken – Mjällby
Predicted score matrix
Mjällby →
Häcken →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–16.8%
0–24.2%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.4%
1–111.9%
1–26.9%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.4%
2–25.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.3%
3–15.1%
3–23.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,63–1,19
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,547%
@2.42EV+13%
Over 2,553%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Häcken or draw (1X)72%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gustav Lindgren to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gustav Lindgren to score29%
- Jesper Gustavsson to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Mjällby33% probability@5.11BetsafeEV+70%reference odds
- 2 · Mjällby33% probability@5.11BetssonEV+70%reference odds
- 2 · Mjällby33% probability@5.11NordicbetEV+70%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Häcken | X | 2 · Mjällby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Betsafe | 1.65 | EV+ 6% 4.00 | EV+ 70% 5.11 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | EV+ 6% 4.00 | EV+ 70% 5.11 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | EV+ 6% 4.00 | EV+ 70% 5.11 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | EV+ 11% 4.22 | EV+ 57% 4.73 |
Odds updated 10 Sept, 08:36
Odds movement
10 %
61 %56 %
1.62 → 1.62
X0 %
25 %20 %
4.22 → 4.22
20 %
22 %17 %
4.71 → 4.73
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesHäcken 2Draw 0Mjällby 5
Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 2,1)
Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Mjällby AIF dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Häcken
Mjällby
Häcken (33–29)
Mjällby (24–29)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Häcken
Mjällby
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Häcken
Mjällby
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Häcken | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 20 |
| xPoints | 30.8 | 18.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| Playing style | Häcken | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 433 | 420 |
| Passes against per match | 394 | 381 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.5 | 17.5 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Häcken | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| Other | Häcken | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Linde (Häcken) | Robin Wallinder (Mjällby) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 41 | 57 |
| Save % | 73% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 42% |
| Claims | 48 (89%) | 96 (90%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Häcken vs Mjällby according to our model?
The model gives Häcken a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Häcken 40%, draw 26%, Mjällby 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.