Degerfors vs Halmstad: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan5 September 2026 15:00 CESTStora Valla, Örebro12°2,0 mm10 km/h

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DegerforsBalanced & physical

HalmstadCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Degerfors (49%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.00 (+4 %)

1 · Degerfors 49%X 27%24% Halmstad · 2

49%

27%

24%

Analysis: Degerfors – Halmstad

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Degerfors enter this clash with the upper hand, statistically speaking, capturing 49% win probability according to the model. The hosts have a slight edge in xPoints and points, reflecting their consistent form. However, the numbers also tell a story of a balanced encounter, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 or a narrow win for Degerfors. Given the 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, this could be a tightly contested affair rather than a high-scoring one.

Both sides bring distinct styles to the table. Degerfors play a balanced and physical game, which may attempt to stifle Halmstad's counter-attacking approach. The visitors rely heavily on crosses, a strategy that could find joy given Degerfors' 1.6 xGA per match. Yet, the home side's historical dominance in this fixture, winning three of the last five matches, suggests they know how to handle Halmstad's tactics. Still, it's a small sample size that weighs less than current form.

Despite sitting lower in the points table, Halmstad have some hidden value. With odds of 4.38 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 3% edge based on the model's 24% probability for a Halmstad win. This value proposition is tempting, especially considering the visitors' slight advantage in xG per match at 0.94 compared to Degerfors' 0.87. The odds present a rare opportunity where the market might be underestimating the away side's potential to surprise.

While Degerfors are the clear favorites, Halmstad's counter-attacking prowess shouldn't be dismissed. For those looking for value, the away win at odds of 4.38 stands out as an intriguing option. Expect a closely fought contest, likely ending in a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts, with the edge slightly in favor of going over 2.5 goals.

Degerfors

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #11xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
Daniel SundgrenRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Ludvig FritzsonFxG 0.11 · xT -0.01

Halmstad

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #14xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Hussein CarneilFxG 0.20 · xT 0.19
Rami KaibLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.30
André BomanRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Degerfors – Halmstad

Predicted score matrix

Halmstad →

Degerfors →

0–06.7%

0–16.6%

0–23.8%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.2%

1–111.9%

1–26.4%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.6%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–04.8%

3–15.3%

3–22.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.2%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,66–1,10

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.82

Over 2,552%

@2.00EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Degerfors to win49%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Degerfors to win49%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Ludvig Fritzson to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Ludvig Fritzson to score22%
Rocco Ascone to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.552% probability@2.00PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
Over 3.530% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
Over 3.530% probability@3.45BetssonEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Degerfors	X	2 · Halmstad
Betsafe	1.92	3.49	4.07
Betsson	1.92	3.49	4.07
Nordicbet	1.92	3.49	4.07
Pinnacle	1.89	3.47	4.06

Odds updated 2 Sept, 13:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Degerfors 3Draw 1Halmstad 1

Goals: 11–2 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Degerfors IF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Degerfors

Halmstad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Degerfors (17–31)

Halmstad (13–35)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Degerfors

Halmstad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Degerfors

Halmstad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Degerfors	Halmstad
Points	16	11
xPoints	19.1	18
xG per match	0.87	0.94
xGA per match	1.6	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.41

Playing style	Degerfors	Halmstad
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.34
Field tilt	0.43	0.4
xT per match	1.3	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	33	28
Pressing intensity	0.46	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	14	20
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	345	328
Passes against per match	420	508
Switches of play per match	13.6	15.4
Long balls per match	26	28

Set pieces	Degerfors	Halmstad
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.13
Corners per match	4.4	4.2
Corners against per match	5.3	6.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.28	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.48

Other	Degerfors	Halmstad
Throw-in control	0.53	0.61

The goalkeepers	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)	Tim Rönning (Halmstad)
Saves	63	77
Save %	67%	70%
xG prevented	40%	55%
Claims	92 (91%)	115 (93%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Degerfors vs Halmstad according to our model?

The model gives Degerfors a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Degerfors 49%, draw 27%, Halmstad 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.