Djurgården vs Mjällby: Prediction & Odds (31 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan31 August 2026 19:00 CEST3Arena, Stockholm18°2,4 mm16 km/h

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DjurgårdenPossession & high press

MjällbyPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Djurgården (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mjällby @ 5.49 (+47 %)

1 · Djurgården 49%X 24%27% Mjällby · 2

49%

24%

27%

Analysis: Djurgården – Mjällby

Marcus Johansson · 24 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Djurgården's recent strength against Mjällby is indisputable, having secured three wins and two draws in their last six encounters since 2023. Despite the small sample, the historical edge aligns with their current form, where they lead on both points and expected points—26 to 20 and 26.9 to 17.6, respectively. The hosts' approach, characterized by possession and a high press, should allow them to impose their game plan, especially given Mjällby's more conservative possession control style.

The expected goals model also tilts the balance in Djurgården's favor, projecting 1.75 expected goals for them versus 1.22 for the visitors. This suggests a tighter match than the raw probabilities indicate, but still gives the hosts an edge. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 reflect a competitive fixture, yet one where Djurgården's superior xG potential might just see them edge ahead.

In terms of goals, the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 57%, indicating a slight lean towards a match with three or more goals. Djurgården's ability to create chances is evident in their average of 1.9 xG per game, significantly higher than Mjällby's 1.3. However, the high likelihood of both teams scoring at 59% suggests that while Djurgården are favorites, Mjällby will have their moments.

The most likely outcome appears to be a narrow victory for Djurgården, perhaps a 2-1 win that reflects their edge both in form and scoring potential. The model gives Djurgården a 49% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, aligning with both the form guide and xG analysis.

Djurgården

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #4xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Bo HeglandFxG 0.36 · xT 0.29
Max LarssonLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Kristian LienFxG 0.57 · xT 0.05

Mjällby

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #6xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Abdoulie MannehFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49
Jacob BergströmFxG 0.31 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Djurgården – Mjällby

Predicted score matrix

Mjällby →

Djurgården →

0–05.5%

0–16.0%

0–23.8%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.6%

1–111.3%

1–26.7%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.6%

3–15.6%

3–23.4%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,75–1,22

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.38EV+2%

Over 2,557%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Djurgården to win49%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Djurgården to win49%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Kristian Lien to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Kristian Lien to score35%
Viktor Gustafson to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mjällby27% probability@5.49BetsafeEV+47%reference odds
2 · Mjällby27% probability@5.49BetssonEV+47%reference odds
2 · Mjällby27% probability@5.49NordicbetEV+47%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Djurgården	X	2 · Mjällby
Betsafe	1.58	EV+ 2% 4.23	EV+ 47% 5.49
Betsson	1.58	EV+ 2% 4.23	EV+ 47% 5.49
Nordicbet	1.58	EV+ 2% 4.23	EV+ 47% 5.49
Pinnacle	1.51	EV+ 13% 4.69	EV+ 38% 5.16

Odds updated 27 Aug, 08:37

Odds movement

10 %

64 %59 %

1.52 → 1.51

X-1 %

22 %17 %

4.75 → 4.69

2+2 %

21 %16 %

5.08 → 5.16

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Djurgården 3Draw 2Mjällby 1

Goals: 9–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Djurgården dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Djurgården

Mjällby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Djurgården (34–19)

Mjällby (24–23)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Djurgården

Mjällby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Djurgården

Mjällby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Djurgården	Mjällby
Points	26	20
xPoints	26.9	17.6
xG per match	1.9	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.45

Playing style	Djurgården	Mjällby
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.31
Field tilt	0.6	0.54
xT per match	1.6	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	33	34
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.26
Entries into the box per match	17	15
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.83	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.77
Passes per match	444	424
Passes against per match	322	360
Switches of play per match	16.7	17.6
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Djurgården	Mjällby
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.21
Corners per match	7	5
Corners against per match	4.1	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.55

Other	Djurgården	Mjällby
Throw-in control	0.65	0.57

The goalkeepers	Jacob Rinne (Djurgården)	Robin Wallinder (Mjällby)
Saves	50	54
Save %	75%	70%
xG prevented	51%	45%
Claims	69 (91%)	91 (91%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Djurgården vs Mjällby according to our model?

The model gives Djurgården a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Djurgården 49%, draw 24%, Mjällby 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.