GAIS vs Häcken: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan5 September 2026 15:00 CESTGamla Ullevi, Göteborg15°1,8 mm29 km/h

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GAISPossession & high press

HäckenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · GAIS (41%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+23 %)

1 · GAIS 41%X 26%34% Häcken · 2

41%

26%

34%

Analysis: GAIS – Häcken

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

GAIS and Häcken clash in a matchup that's tighter than it might first appear, with the home side slightly favored by the model at 41% to win. Despite trailing in the standings with 23 points compared to Häcken's 31, the hosts boast a solid home win rate of 55% over 40 matches, coupled with a superior xPoints tally of 29.6 to the visitors’ 29.5. This hints at a potential upset as GAIS look to leverage their possession and high press against Häcken's counter-attacking style.

A small sample of their head-to-head encounters since 2023 reveals GAIS’s dominance, winning four out of five meetings. This historical edge is reflected in the model's lean towards a GAIS victory. Yet, the match is expected to be closely contested, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 to GAIS (10%). The expected goals further underscore the host’s slight advantage, pegging them at 1.52 compared to Häcken's 1.16.

Despite a historical average of 3.2 goals per meeting, the probability for over 2.5 goals sits evenly at 50%, suggesting a more cautious outlook. With both teams expected to score 54% of the time, a low-scoring draw or a slim victory for GAIS seems plausible. The model's assessment of a 7% likelihood for a goalless draw is notably undervalued on the market, offering substantial EV+ at odds of 17.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet.

For those intrigued by betting angles, this 23% edge on under 0.5 goals presents a rare opportunity. While hardly a guarantee, it’s a sharp wager to consider amidst a match that may defy its high-scoring history.

GAIS

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #2xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Samuel SalterFxG 0.50 · xT 0.04
Rasmus Niklasson PetrovicLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
Róbert Frosti ÞorkelssonLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.26

Häcken

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #3xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Julius LindbergFxG 0.34 · xT 0.24
Adrian SvanbäckFxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Amor LayouniRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.50

Match prediction: GAIS – Häcken

Predicted score matrix

Häcken →

GAIS →

0–07.2%

0–17.6%

0–24.6%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.1%

1–112.4%

1–27.0%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.2%

2–25.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.0%

3–14.6%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,52–1,16

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.28EV+14%

Over 2,550%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance GAIS or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance GAIS or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Henry Sletsjøe to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Henry Sletsjøe to score27%
Silas Andersen to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetssonEV+23%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · GAIS	X	2 · Häcken
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	2.32	3.58	2.93
Betsson	2.32	3.58	2.93
Nordicbet	2.32	3.58	2.93
Pinnacle	2.27	3.60	2.93

Odds updated 3 Sept, 05:18

Odds movement

1-1 %

44 %39 %

2.30 → 2.27

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+1 %

35 %30 %

2.89 → 2.93

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

GAIS 4Draw 0Häcken 1

Goals: 11–5 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

GAIS dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
GAIS win 55% of their home matches all-time (40 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

GAIS

Häcken

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

GAIS (25–18)

Häcken (33–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

GAIS

Häcken

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

GAIS

Häcken

The teams in numbers

Performance	GAIS	Häcken
Points	23	31
xPoints	29.6	29.5
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.28

Playing style	GAIS	Häcken
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.35
Field tilt	0.55	0.49
xT per match	1.6	1.6
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	39	27
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.23
Entries into the box per match	17	14
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.79
Passes per match	411	433
Passes against per match	406	392
Switches of play per match	12.9	13.6
Long balls per match	27	31

Set pieces	GAIS	Häcken
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.1
Corners per match	5.5	5.4
Corners against per match	4.5	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.61

Other	GAIS	Häcken
Throw-in control	0.62	0.66

The goalkeepers	Mergim Krasniqi (GAIS)	Andreas Linde (Häcken)
Saves	40	41
Save %	80%	73%
xG prevented	56%	52%
Claims	69 (95%)	48 (89%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins GAIS vs Häcken according to our model?

The model gives GAIS a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: GAIS 41%, draw 26%, Häcken 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.