Swedish Allsvenskan3Arena, Stockholm15°0,6 mm12 km/h

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    HammarbyHammarbyPossession & high press
    vs
    GAISGAISPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby (58%)Best value by the model: 2 · GAIS @ 6.93 (+25 %)

    Hammarby – GAIS · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Hammarby 58%X 24%18% GAIS · 2

    Analysis: Hammarby – GAIS

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Hammarby IF's home fortress is a formidable place, with the side winning 67% of their matches there. This statistic suggests a degree of comfort and dominance that could prove decisive against Gais. While Gais have historically had the upper hand in this fixture, winning 3 of their last 5 meetings, this small sample doesn't outweigh current form or the potential for Hammarby's home advantage to tip the scales.

    Hammarby IF are riding a five-match unbeaten streak in the league, a testament to their current solidity and momentum. Their expected goals of 2.00 per match further reinforce their attacking prowess, suggesting they are more than capable of breaking down a Gais side with an xGA of 1.1. Coupled with Gais only having an 18% chance of winning according to the model, the edge here clearly leans towards the home side.

    Gais aren't to be dismissed lightly, though. Their possession and high press approach mirrors Hammarby's, which could either lead to a tactical stalemate or an open, high-scoring affair given the expected goals. With the weather forecasted to bring rain, the chances of a goal-laden game might be slightly dampened, yet the 57% probability for over 2.5 goals hints at an expectation of fireworks regardless.

    Gais' knack for spoiling the party in past encounters might give them a psychological edge, but with Hammarby IF's impressive home form and their current run in the league, I anticipate a 2-1 victory for Hammarby IF. The real value for punters lies with Hammarby to win at odds of 1.8 from Bet365, a bet that reflects both form and statistical backing.

    HammarbyHammarby
    Form WWWDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #4Points #2
    Key players
    • Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.29
    • Hampus SkoglundRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
    • Paulos AbrahamFxG 0.58 · xT 0.10
    GAISGAIS
    Form DWLDW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #8
    Key players
    • Róbert Frosti ÞorkelssonLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.26
    • Samuel SalterFxG 0.54 · xT 0.05
    • Rasmus Niklasson PetrovicLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.21

    Match prediction: Hammarby – GAIS

    Predicted score matrix

    GAIS →
    Hammarby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.4%
    0–14.7%
    0–22.4%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–110.3%
    1–24.9%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.2%
    2–110.0%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–06.8%
    3–16.6%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–05.4%
    4+–15.2%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.1-010%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,00–0,98
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.38EV+2%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hammarby to win58%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.97

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hammarby to win58%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Paulos Abraham to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Paulos Abraham to score35%
    • Joackim Fagerjord to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · GAIS18% probability@6.93BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · GAIS18% probability@6.93BetssonEV+25%reference odds
    • 2 · GAIS18% probability@6.93NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · HammarbyX2 · GAIS
    Betsafe1.47
    EV+ 7%
    4.37
    EV+ 25%
    6.93
    Betsson1.47
    EV+ 7%
    4.37
    EV+ 25%
    6.93
    Nordicbet1.47
    EV+ 7%
    4.37
    EV+ 25%
    6.93

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 15:36

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    66 %61 %

    1.49 → 1.47

    X0 %
    24 %19 %

    4.38 → 4.37

    2+7 %
    17 %12 %

    6.46 → 6.93

    Over 2,50 %
    63 %58 %

    1.55 → 1.55

    Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Hammarby 0Draw 2GAIS 3
    Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • GAIS dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
    • Hammarby are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    • Hammarby win 67% of their home matches all-time (54 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hammarby
    GAIS
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hammarby (36–15)
    GAIS (21–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hammarby
    Hampus Skoglund: 408 passningar, xT 0.5SkoglundFrederik Winther: 320 passningar, xT 0.22WintherIbrahima Breze Fofana: 271 passningar, xT 0.29FofanaMarkus Karlsson: 259 passningar, xT 0.01KarlssonMontader Madjed: 250 passningar, xT 0.44MadjedTesfaldet Tekie: 225 passningar, xT 0.36TekieVictor Eriksson: 193 passningar, xT 0.09ErikssonNoah Persson: 192 passningar, xT 0.45PerssonFrank Junior Agyei: 172 passningar, xT 0.33AgyeiWaylon Ramon Renecke: 138 passningar, xT 0.18ReneckeVictor Stange Lind: 135 passningar, xT 2.19Lind
    GAIS
    Oskar Ågren: 283 passningar, xT 0.43ÅgrenFilip Beckman: 243 passningar, xT 0.2BeckmanRobin Frej: 228 passningar, xT 0.14FrejJoackim Fagerjord: 209 passningar, xT 0.39FagerjordMatteo De Brienne: 164 passningar, xT 0.94BrienneHenry Sletsjøe: 160 passningar, xT 0.38SletsjøeAnes Cardaklija: 157 passningar, xT 0.31CardaklijaRóbert Frosti Þorkelsson: 129 passningar, xT 1.52ÞorkelssonAugust Wängberg: 127 passningar, xT 0.23WängbergRobin Wendin Thomasson: 116 passningar, xT 0.59ThomassonMax Andersson: 106 passningar, xT 0.74Andersson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hammarby
    Hampus Skoglund: 408 passningar, xT 0.5SkoglundFrederik Winther: 320 passningar, xT 0.22WintherIbrahima Breze Fofana: 271 passningar, xT 0.29FofanaMarkus Karlsson: 259 passningar, xT 0.01KarlssonMontader Madjed: 250 passningar, xT 0.44MadjedTesfaldet Tekie: 225 passningar, xT 0.36TekieVictor Eriksson: 193 passningar, xT 0.09ErikssonNoah Persson: 192 passningar, xT 0.45PerssonFrank Junior Agyei: 172 passningar, xT 0.33AgyeiWaylon Ramon Renecke: 138 passningar, xT 0.18ReneckeVictor Stange Lind: 135 passningar, xT 2.19Lind
    GAIS
    Oskar Ågren: 283 passningar, xT 0.43ÅgrenFilip Beckman: 243 passningar, xT 0.2BeckmanRobin Frej: 228 passningar, xT 0.14FrejJoackim Fagerjord: 209 passningar, xT 0.39FagerjordMatteo De Brienne: 164 passningar, xT 0.94BrienneHenry Sletsjøe: 160 passningar, xT 0.38SletsjøeAnes Cardaklija: 157 passningar, xT 0.31CardaklijaRóbert Frosti Þorkelsson: 129 passningar, xT 1.52ÞorkelssonAugust Wängberg: 127 passningar, xT 0.23WängbergRobin Wendin Thomasson: 116 passningar, xT 0.59ThomassonMax Andersson: 106 passningar, xT 0.74Andersson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHammarbyGAIS
    Points3023
    xPoints26.827.7
    xG per match21.8
    xGA per match11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.420.52
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.13
    Playing styleHammarbyGAIS
    Build-up efficiency0.350.33
    Field tilt0.740.57
    xT per match1.71.6
    xTA per match0.931.3
    Won balls, offensive half3840
    Pressing intensity0.560.5
    Pressing efficiency0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.25
    Entries into the box per match2017
    Entries into the box against912
    Pass completion %0.860.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.820.76
    Passes per match547419
    Passes against per match320396
    Switches of play per match11.312.6
    Long balls per match2227
    Set piecesHammarbyGAIS
    xG from free kicks0.190.18
    Corners per match6.35.6
    Corners against per match2.84.5
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.590.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.7
    OtherHammarbyGAIS
    Throw-in control0.720.61
    The goalkeepersWarner Hahn (Hammarby)Mergim Krasniqi (GAIS)
    Saves3430
    Save %69%81%
    xG prevented37%57%
    Claims67 (97%)53 (93%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hammarby vs GAIS according to our model?

    The model gives Hammarby a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby 58%, draw 24%, GAIS 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.