Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan23 August 2026 16:30 CESTGrimsta IP, Stockholm16°6,0 mm13 km/h

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BrommapojkarnaCounter-attacks & crosses

DegerforsBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Brommapojkarna (39%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.90 (+19 %)

1 · Brommapojkarna 39%X 28%33% Degerfors · 2

39%

28%

33%

Analysis: Brommapojkarna – Degerfors

Anna Karlsson · 15 August 2026 · How the predictions work

In the world of Allsvenskan clashes, IF Brommapojkarna versus Degerfors IF presents an intriguing blend of form and history. Both teams are closely matched on paper, with IF Brommapojkarna slightly tipped by the model probabilities to edge out the visitors at 39% to 33%. Their modest superiority is reflected in points (18 vs 13) and expected points (21.8 vs 15.3), suggesting a team that is slightly underperforming their underlying numbers.

IF Brommapojkarna, known for their counter-attacking prowess and reliance on crosses, have been consistent scorers, finding the net in nine consecutive league matches. This attacking verve is backed by an xG per match of 1.2, outpacing Degerfors IF's 0.85. However, Degerfors' historical edge in this fixture—three wins from the last five meetings—can't be ignored, though it's a small sample size and weighs less than current form and expected goals data.

With 3.2 goals per meeting on average between these sides, the prospect of a high-scoring affair is tempting, especially with the model suggesting a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams will score. The damp conditions with 2.7 mm of rain expected might slightly suppress the goal tally, but not enough to overshadow the numbers pointing towards a lively encounter.

Degerfors IF bring a balanced and physical edge to their play, a style that could disrupt IF Brommapojkarna's rhythm. Yet, the visitors' vulnerability at the back (1.6 xGA per match versus IF Brommapojkarna's 1.5) gives the home side an opportunity to exploit. The expected goals model hints at a tight contest, likely swaying towards a 2-1 victory for IF Brommapojkarna, aligning with the second most probable scoreline.

For punters seeking value, the over 2.5 goals at 60% probability stands out. Coupled with the bookmakers offering this market at a favourable price, it seems the sharpest angle. With the attacking intent and defensive frailties on both sides, goals could well be abound at Grimsta IP.

Brommapojkarna

Form LLDLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #15xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Oliver BergFxG 0.24 · xT 0.23
David IssoFxG 0.41 · xT -0.02
Mads Kristian HansenRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.22

Degerfors

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #10xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.33
Daniel SundgrenRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Arman TaranisFxG 0.14 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Brommapojkarna – Degerfors

Predicted score matrix

Degerfors →

Brommapojkarna →

0–04.8%

0–16.4%

0–25.0%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.9%

1–111.1%

1–28.0%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.8%

2–18.7%

2–26.5%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.7%

3–03.1%

3–14.7%

3–23.5%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,61–1,49

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@1.95

Over 2,560%

@1.82EV+9%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Brommapojkarna or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Brommapojkarna or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Obilor Denzel Okeke to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Obilor Denzel Okeke to score22%
Kazper Karlsson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.520% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+19%
Over 4.520% probability@5.90BetssonEV+19%
Over 4.520% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+19%

Bookmaker	1 · Brommapojkarna	X	2 · Degerfors
Betsafe	2.04	3.52	EV+ 18% 3.59
Betsson	2.04	3.52	EV+ 18% 3.59
Nordicbet	2.04	3.52	EV+ 18% 3.59

Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

49 %44 %

2.09 → 2.04

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.51 → 3.52

2+3 %

29 %24 %

3.47 → 3.59

Over 2,5-2 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.82

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Brommapojkarna 1Draw 1Degerfors 3

Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Degerfors IF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
IF Brommapojkarna have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brommapojkarna

Degerfors

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brommapojkarna (22–26)

Degerfors (14–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brommapojkarna

Degerfors

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brommapojkarna

Degerfors

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brommapojkarna	Degerfors
Points	18	13
xPoints	21.8	15.3
xG per match	1.2	0.85
xGA per match	1.5	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.34

Playing style	Brommapojkarna	Degerfors
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.35
Field tilt	0.38	0.46
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	1.8	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	21	33
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.47
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	19	13
Pass completion %	0.83	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.74
Passes per match	404	344
Passes against per match	501	402
Switches of play per match	15.2	12.8
Long balls per match	26	26

Set pieces	Brommapojkarna	Degerfors
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.09
Corners per match	4.3	4.7
Corners against per match	5.8	4.6
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.7

Other	Brommapojkarna	Degerfors
Throw-in control	0.59	0.54

The goalkeepers	Leo Cavallius (Brommapojkarna)	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)
Saves	66	53
Save %	72%	66%
xG prevented	62%	39%
Claims	91 (84%)	70 (91%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors according to our model?

The model gives Brommapojkarna a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brommapojkarna 39%, draw 28%, Degerfors 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.