Elfsborg vs Degerfors: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan29 August 2026 15:00 CESTBorås arena, Borås17°10,2 mm19 km/h

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ElfsborgCounter-attacks & crosses

DegerforsBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Elfsborg (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Degerfors @ 5.95 (+27 %)

1 · Elfsborg 54%X 25%21% Degerfors · 2

54%

25%

21%

Analysis: Elfsborg – Degerfors

Sofia Andersson · 24 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The numbers point to a clash of styles as Elfsborg host Degerfors in the Allsvenskan. The home side, known for their counter-attacking and reliance on crosses, comes into this encounter with a model probability of 54% to secure a win. Meanwhile, Degerfors, who adopt a more balanced and physical approach, have only a 21% chance of triumphing according to the model. With Elfsborg dominating recent meetings, having won three out of the last five, they seem better positioned for success.

Goals are expected, with the odds favoring over 2.5 goals at 56%. Both teams are equally likely, at 56%, to find the back of the net. However, the expected goals (xG) tell a slightly different story, with Elfsborg having a more robust attack, registering 1.83 xG to Degerfors' 1.11 xG. The model's most likely scorelines echo this, with a 1-1 draw leading at 11%, closely followed by a 2-1 win for the hosts at 10%.

The rainy conditions, with 12.0 mm of expected precipitation, could impact the game dynamics, possibly dampening goal-scoring opportunities. Yet, the model has factored this into its calculations, maintaining the initial predictions. Elfsborg's historical win rate at home stands at 56%, which further solidifies their odds of coming out on top in this matchup.

For those looking for a value bet, the away win at odds of 5.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers an interesting option. The model rates Degerfors' chances at 21%, providing a significant 27% edge over the bookmaker's odds. While Elfsborg remains the favorite, the numbers suggest that a punt on Degerfors could yield a handsome return if they defy the odds.

Elfsborg

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #9xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Niklas HultLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Arber ZeneliLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.45
Júlíus MagnússonCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.13

Degerfors

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #10xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.23 · xT 0.20
Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.32
Daniel SundgrenRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Elfsborg – Degerfors

Predicted score matrix

Degerfors →

Elfsborg →

0–05.6%

0–15.6%

0–23.3%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.4%

1–111.1%

1–25.9%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.9%

2–19.8%

2–25.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.4%

3–16.0%

3–23.3%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.7%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,83–1,11

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@1.98

Over 2,556%

@1.83EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Elfsborg to win54%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Elfsborg to win54%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Leo Östman to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Leo Östman to score32%
Juhani Pikkarainen to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Degerfors21% probability@5.95BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
2 · Degerfors21% probability@5.95BetssonEV+27%reference odds
2 · Degerfors21% probability@5.95NordicbetEV+27%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Elfsborg	X	2 · Degerfors
Betsafe	1.59	3.90	EV+ 27% 5.95
Betsson	1.59	3.90	EV+ 27% 5.95
Nordicbet	1.59	3.90	EV+ 27% 5.95
Pinnacle	1.55	3.98	EV+ 23% 5.77

Odds updated 27 Aug, 16:39

Odds movement

10 %

63 %58 %

1.55 → 1.55

X-2 %

26 %21 %

4.08 → 3.98

2+2 %

19 %14 %

5.68 → 5.77

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.82 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Elfsborg 3Draw 1Degerfors 1

Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

IF Elfsborg dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
IF Elfsborg win 56% of their home matches all-time (54 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Elfsborg

Degerfors

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Elfsborg (25–19)

Degerfors (17–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Elfsborg

Degerfors

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Elfsborg

Degerfors

The teams in numbers

Performance	Elfsborg	Degerfors
Points	28	16
xPoints	24.5	18.6
xG per match	1.3	0.9
xGA per match	1.3	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.33

Playing style	Elfsborg	Degerfors
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.46	0.44
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	27	33
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.82	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.74
Passes per match	394	346
Passes against per match	436	413
Switches of play per match	13.8	13.7
Long balls per match	27	27

Set pieces	Elfsborg	Degerfors
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.08
Corners per match	3.9	4.3
Corners against per match	5.1	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.65

Other	Elfsborg	Degerfors
Throw-in control	0.64	0.54

The goalkeepers	Isak Pettersson (Elfsborg)	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)
Saves	60	59
Save %	76%	67%
xG prevented	55%	38%
Claims	80 (86%)	89 (91%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Elfsborg vs Degerfors according to our model?

The model gives Elfsborg a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Elfsborg 54%, draw 25%, Degerfors 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.