Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan13 September 2026 14:00 CESTBorås arena, Borås15°3,3 mm13 km/h

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ElfsborgBalanced & physical

Kalmar FFPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Elfsborg (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kalmar FF @ 4.17 (+10 %)

1 · Elfsborg 48%X 26%26% Kalmar FF · 2

48%

26%

Analysis: Elfsborg – Kalmar FF

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Elfsborg carries a 48% model probability of winning against Kalmar FF, a significant edge given their balanced and physical playing style. The hosts have traditionally been strong at home, winning 56% of their matches, which aligns with their modelled victory lean. Despite leading the head-to-head series 3-2, Kalmar FF appears vulnerable as their possession-based approach may struggle in the expected rain.

With a most likely scoreline of 1-1 (12%) and Elfsborg's 1-0 victory a close second at 11%, the match leans slightly toward a narrow home win. Elfsborg's expected goals sit at 1.60, comfortably ahead of the visitors' 1.07, suggesting their ability to edge out a result. The head-to-head data, given just five recent encounters, holds less weight compared to form and expected goals, especially in the context of Elfsborg's superior home record.

Value seekers may be tempted by Kalmar FF's odds of 4.07 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, considering the model rates the away win at 26% (7% edge). However, the most likely outcome remains a tight 1-1 draw, with the over/under 2.5 goals split at 50%.

Elfsborg

Form WWDWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #9xP/match #8Points #5

Key players

Niklas HultLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Arber ZeneliLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.44
Júlíus MagnússonCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.13

Kalmar FF

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #6xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Anthony OlusanyaFxG 0.37 · xT -0.03
Charles Sagoe JrLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.26
Marius SöderbäckFxG 0.12 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Elfsborg – Kalmar FF

Predicted score matrix

Kalmar FF →

Elfsborg →

0–07.2%

0–17.1%

0–24.0%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.7%

1–112.2%

1–26.4%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.8%

2–19.5%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.7%

3–15.1%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.7%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,60–1,07

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.98

Over 2,550%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Elfsborg to win48%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Elfsborg to win48%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Leo Östman to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Leo Östman to score25%
Robert Gojani to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kalmar FF26% probability@4.17PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
2 · Kalmar FF26% probability@4.07BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Kalmar FF26% probability@4.07BetssonEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Elfsborg	X	2 · Kalmar FF
Betfair Exchange	1.13	1.11	1.11
Betsafe	1.89	3.60	EV+ 7% 4.07
Betsson	1.89	3.60	EV+ 7% 4.07
Nordicbet	1.89	3.60	EV+ 7% 4.07
Pinnacle	1.81	3.68	EV+ 10% 4.17

Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:38

Odds movement

10 %

54 %49 %

1.81 → 1.81

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.68 → 3.68

20 %

25 %20 %

4.17 → 4.17

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Elfsborg 2Draw 0Kalmar FF 3

Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
IF Elfsborg win 56% of their home matches all-time (55 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Elfsborg

Kalmar FF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Elfsborg (28–21)

Kalmar FF (21–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Elfsborg

Kalmar FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Elfsborg

Kalmar FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
Points	31	19
xPoints	27.5	27.5
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.22

Playing style	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.47
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	30
Pressing intensity	0.46	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.23
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.83	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.77
Passes per match	410	397
Passes against per match	432	450
Switches of play per match	13.4	14
Long balls per match	27	30

Set pieces	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.11
Corners per match	4.1	4.8
Corners against per match	5.1	5.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.61

Other	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
Throw-in control	0.64	0.62

The goalkeepers	Isak Pettersson (Elfsborg)	Samuel Brolin (Kalmar FF)
Saves	64	48
Save %	75%	73%
xG prevented	55%	56%
Claims	85 (87%)	74 (88%)

Teams & more matches this round

Elfsborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Kalmar FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF according to our model?

The model gives Elfsborg a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Elfsborg 48%, draw 26%, Kalmar FF 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.