Swedish AllsvenskanGamla Ullevi, Göteborg16°1,4 mm21 km/h

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    IFK GöteborgIFK GöteborgPossession & high press
    vs
    HalmstadHalmstadCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · IFK Göteborg (68%)

    IFK Göteborg – Halmstad · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · IFK Göteborg 68%X 18%15% Halmstad · 2

    Analysis: IFK Göteborg – Halmstad

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: With a commanding 68% probability, the model clearly leans towards an IFK Göteborg victory against Halmstad. The hosts are backed by a solid expected goals figure of 2.17, suggesting they'll control the match through possession and a high press. Historically, Göteborg has also had the upper hand, although the small head-to-head sample of seven matches shows a balanced record with four draws.

    The most likely scoreline is 2-0, followed closely by 2-1, indicating a probable home win with some degree of comfort. Halmstad's expected goals of 0.94 highlight their struggle to capitalize on counter-attacks and crosses. With a 54% chance of both teams scoring and a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals, the statistical evidence tilts towards an attacking, front-foot performance from the home side rather than a cautious one.

    For those seeking value, Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 1.49 on a Göteborg win — a slight edge over the model's 68% implied probability. While not headline-grabbing, this well-supported bet reflects the strength of the hosts' expected performance. In a world where controlling the game pays the bills, backing IFK Göteborg here seems the prudent choice.

    IFK GöteborgIFK Göteborg
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #5Points #11
    Key players
    • Tobias HeintzLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.49
    • Adam WibergFxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
    • Oliver MånssonCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    HalmstadHalmstad
    Form LLDWL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #13xP/match #16Points #16
    Key players
    • Hussein CarneilFxG 0.20 · xT 0.19
    • André BomanRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
    • Ludvig ArvidssonRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: IFK Göteborg – Halmstad

    Predicted score matrix

    Halmstad →
    IFK Göteborg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–13.9%
    0–22.0%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.5%
    1–19.4%
    1–24.3%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–07.6%
    3–17.1%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–06.9%
    4+–16.4%
    4+–23.0%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,17–0,94
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.38
    Over 2,560%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • IFK Göteborg to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • IFK Göteborg to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Tobias Heintz to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Tobias Heintz to score24%
    • Joel Allansson to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · IFK Göteborg68% probability@1.48BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
    • 1 · IFK Göteborg68% probability@1.48BetssonEV+0%reference odds
    • 1 · IFK Göteborg68% probability@1.48NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · IFK GöteborgX2 · Halmstad
    Betfair Exchange1.151.111.12
    Betsafe
    EV+ 0%
    1.48    		4.456.60
    Betsson
    EV+ 0%
    1.48    		4.456.60
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 0%
    1.48    		4.456.60
    Pinnacle1.454.816.40

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    67 %62 %

    1.48 → 1.45

    X+6 %
    23 %18 %

    4.52 → 4.81

    2+7 %
    18 %13 %

    5.97 → 6.40

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    IFK Göteborg 2Draw 4Halmstad 1
    Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 1,3)

    Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • IFK Göteborg dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    IFK Göteborg
    Halmstad
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    IFK Göteborg (28–40)
    Halmstad (13–37)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    IFK Göteborg
    Hjörtur Hermannsson: 270 passningar, xT 0.64HermannssonFelix Eriksson: 213 passningar, xT 0.49ErikssonNoah Tolf: 208 passningar, xT 0.8TolfDavid Kjær Kruse: 207 passningar, xT -0.04KruseOliver Månsson: 189 passningar, xT 0.36MånssonAugust Erlingmark: 183 passningar, xT 0.23ErlingmarkSam Larsson: 157 passningar, xT 0.73LarssonTobias Heintz: 151 passningar, xT 1.73HeintzViktor Andersson: 86 passningar, xT 0.14AnderssonAdam Wiberg: 69 passningar, xT 0.08WibergIssaka Seidu: 57 passningar, xT 0.05Seidu
    Halmstad
    André Boman: 216 passningar, xT 1.26BomanRami Kaib: 211 passningar, xT 1.49KaibPascal Gregor: 209 passningar, xT 0.16GregorGabriel Wallentin: 204 passningar, xT 0.17WallentinNiilo Mäenpää: 177 passningar, xT 0.11MäenpääHussein Carneil: 170 passningar, xT 0.72CarneilRocco Ascone: 145 passningar, xT 0.54AsconeJoel Allansson: 140 passningar, xT 0.12AllanssonTom Trybull: 106 passningar, xT 0.29TrybullKoudou Marvin Axel Illary: 65 passningar, xT 0.03IllaryTim Rönning: 50 passningar, xT 0.14Rönning
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    IFK Göteborg
    Hjörtur Hermannsson: 270 passningar, xT 0.64HermannssonFelix Eriksson: 213 passningar, xT 0.49ErikssonNoah Tolf: 208 passningar, xT 0.8TolfDavid Kjær Kruse: 207 passningar, xT -0.04KruseOliver Månsson: 189 passningar, xT 0.36MånssonAugust Erlingmark: 183 passningar, xT 0.23ErlingmarkSam Larsson: 157 passningar, xT 0.73LarssonTobias Heintz: 151 passningar, xT 1.73HeintzViktor Andersson: 86 passningar, xT 0.14AnderssonAdam Wiberg: 69 passningar, xT 0.08WibergIssaka Seidu: 57 passningar, xT 0.05Seidu
    Halmstad
    André Boman: 216 passningar, xT 1.26BomanRami Kaib: 211 passningar, xT 1.49KaibPascal Gregor: 209 passningar, xT 0.16GregorGabriel Wallentin: 204 passningar, xT 0.17WallentinNiilo Mäenpää: 177 passningar, xT 0.11MäenpääHussein Carneil: 170 passningar, xT 0.72CarneilRocco Ascone: 145 passningar, xT 0.54AsconeJoel Allansson: 140 passningar, xT 0.12AllanssonTom Trybull: 106 passningar, xT 0.29TrybullKoudou Marvin Axel Illary: 65 passningar, xT 0.03IllaryTim Rönning: 50 passningar, xT 0.14Rönning

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIFK GöteborgHalmstad
    Points2611
    xPoints31.418.7
    xG per match1.60.94
    xGA per match1.32.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.41
    Playing styleIFK GöteborgHalmstad
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.530.4
    xT per match1.41.2
    xTA per match1.51.9
    Won balls, offensive half3227
    Pressing intensity0.520.53
    Pressing efficiency0.250.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.22
    Entries into the box per match1611
    Entries into the box against1320
    Pass completion %0.80.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.74
    Passes per match382333
    Passes against per match364505
    Switches of play per match15.715.2
    Long balls per match3228
    Set piecesIFK GöteborgHalmstad
    xG from free kicks0.190.13
    Corners per match74.1
    Corners against per match4.87.2
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.51
    OtherIFK GöteborgHalmstad
    Throw-in control0.550.61
    The goalkeepersElis Bishesari (IFK Göteborg)Tim Rönning (Halmstad)
    Saves3880
    Save %57%70%
    xG prevented32%54%
    Claims56 (85%)121 (90%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    IFK Göteborg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Halmstad
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins IFK Göteborg vs Halmstad according to our model?

    The model gives IFK Göteborg a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Göteborg 68%, draw 18%, Halmstad 15%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.