IFK Göteborg vs Elfsborg: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan23 August 2026 14:00 CESTGamla Ullevi, Göteborg14°7,5 mm18 km/h

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IFK GöteborgCounter-attacks & crosses

ElfsborgBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Göteborg (43%)

1 · IFK Göteborg 43%X 25%32% Elfsborg · 2

43%

25%

32%

Analysis: IFK Göteborg – Elfsborg

Erik Lindberg · 15 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

IFK Göteborg enters this clash with a model-backed edge, holding a 43% probability to seize victory, compared to IF Elfsborg's 32%. Despite this, the recent head-to-head record paints a starkly different picture: IF Elfsborg boasts dominance with 5 wins in their last 7 meetings. However, in a matchup where historical data is thin, the current form and expected goals (xG) may weigh more heavily. IFK Göteborg's expected goals of 1.57 offers a slight edge over Elfsborg's 1.29, reflecting a more aggressive attacking style that could thrive, especially in wet conditions that often favor cross-heavy play.

IF Elfsborg may have the upper hand in points and recent form with three consecutive victories, but IFK Göteborg's underlying numbers tell a subtler story. They edge Elfsborg in xPoints (24.8 vs. 24.0) and xG per match (1.6 vs. 1.4), suggesting that their performances could bear more fruit than their current standings reveal. The weather is expected to bring 13.2 mm of rain, which might stifle the goal-fest history of this fixture, where matches average 3.1 goals.

Bookmakers appear to offer a tantalizing angle on this encounter. IFK Göteborg's model-induced favoritism seems to carry value. If you're looking to capitalize, consider their win potential in light of Betfair's odds on them. While no betting outcome is guaranteed, IFK's profile as a counter-attacking, cross-heavy side might just find its groove in the conditions expected.

The market suggests a lean towards over 2.5 goals at 54%, with both teams likely to score at 58%. However, given the forecast's potential to dampen attacking fluency, and considering both sides' xGA per match is perfectly balanced at 1.3, a cagier affair than anticipated could unfold. The 1-1 scoreline, predicted at 12%, emerges as the most probable scenario, underlining the potential for a tightly contested draw. Still, with IFK Göteborg's slight edge in xG and the home advantage, a 2-1 victory isn't off the cards.

IFK Göteborg

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #7xP/match #5Points #10

Key players

Tobias HeintzLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.49
Adam WibergFxG 0.20 · xT 0.17
Felix ErikssonRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12

Elfsborg

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #9xP/match #8Points #3

Key players

Niklas HultLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Arber ZeneliLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.49
Júlíus MagnússonCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: IFK Göteborg – Elfsborg

Predicted score matrix

Elfsborg →

IFK Göteborg →

0–06.1%

0–17.0%

0–24.8%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.7%

1–111.9%

1–27.5%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.1%

2–19.1%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.7%

3–14.8%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,57–1,29

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.02

Over 2,554%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance IFK Göteborg or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance IFK Göteborg or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Oliver Månsson to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Oliver Månsson to score22%
Júlíus Magnússon to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · IFK Göteborg43% probability@2.63BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
1 · IFK Göteborg43% probability@2.63BetssonEV+13%reference odds
1 · IFK Göteborg43% probability@2.63NordicbetEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Göteborg	X	2 · Elfsborg
Betsafe	EV+ 13% 2.63	3.42	2.63
Betsson	EV+ 13% 2.63	3.42	2.63
Nordicbet	EV+ 13% 2.63	3.42	2.63

Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

10 %

39 %34 %

2.64 → 2.63

X+3 %

30 %25 %

3.33 → 3.42

2-2 %

38 %33 %

2.69 → 2.63

Over 2,5-4 %

56 %51 %

1.82 → 1.75

Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

IFK Göteborg 1Draw 1Elfsborg 5

Goals: 8–14 (⌀ 3,1)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

IF Elfsborg dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.
IF Elfsborg come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Göteborg

Elfsborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Göteborg (22–35)

Elfsborg (24–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Göteborg

Elfsborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Göteborg

Elfsborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Göteborg	Elfsborg
Points	19	27
xPoints	24.8	24
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.28

Playing style	IFK Göteborg	Elfsborg
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.34
Field tilt	0.51	0.46
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	31	27
Pressing intensity	0.51	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.24
Entries into the box per match	15	14
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.8	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.77
Passes per match	378	394
Passes against per match	366	441
Switches of play per match	15.1	13.7
Long balls per match	31	27

Set pieces	IFK Göteborg	Elfsborg
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.1
Corners per match	6	3.8
Corners against per match	5	4.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.67

Other	IFK Göteborg	Elfsborg
Throw-in control	0.57	0.65

The goalkeepers	Elis Bishesari (IFK Göteborg)	Isak Pettersson (Elfsborg)
Saves	38	55
Save %	57%	75%
xG prevented	32%	58%
Claims	56 (85%)	74 (86%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Göteborg vs Elfsborg according to our model?

The model gives IFK Göteborg a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Göteborg 43%, draw 25%, Elfsborg 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.