Swedish AllsvenskanGamla Ullevi, Göteborg18°10,2 mm20 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    IFK GöteborgIFK GöteborgCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–0
    ÖrgryteÖrgryteBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · IFK Göteborg (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Örgryte @ 4.92 (+5 %)

    IFK Göteborg – Örgryte · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · IFK Göteborg 57%X 21%21% Örgryte · 2

    Analysis: IFK Göteborg – Örgryte

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    IFK Göteborg stands the favorite with a 57% win probability, a clear edge in form and xG metrics. The hosts boast an expected goals tally of 2.04 against Örgryte's 1.24, underlining their attacking prowess. While the visitors have shown resilience through balanced play, their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.9 per match suggests vulnerability at the back, which Göteborg's counter-attacking style is poised to exploit.

    With the most likely outcomes pegged at 1-1 and 2-1, a tight contest seems probable. However, the 64% chance of over 2.5 goals hints at a likely breach of this threshold. Both teams are expected to score, with a 62% probability supporting this view. It's also worth noting the forecasted 10.4 mm of rain, potentially dampening goal-scoring opportunities, though this is already factored into the model's numbers.

    For those scouring for betting value, all eyes should turn to the 5.43 odds on Örgryte with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite being underdogs, the offered odds present a 16% edge compared to the model's assessment. While the sample size of head-to-head data is minor, such value propositions don't appear often.

    IFK GöteborgIFK Göteborg
    Form LWWLD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #7xP/match #6Points #12
    Key players
    • Tobias HeintzLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.47
    • Adam WibergFxG 0.19 · xT 0.15
    • Sebastian ClemmensenRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.10
    ÖrgryteÖrgryte
    Form LWLLD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #13xP/match #12Points #15
    Key players
    • Noah ChristofferssonFxG 0.41 · xT 0.03
    • William HofvanderRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.19
    • Anton AndreassonLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: IFK Göteborg 57% · Draw 21% · Örgryte 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Örgryte ISBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,16fair 13,11-15 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - IFK GöteborgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,04fair 4,80-16 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: IFK Göteborg – Örgryte

    Predicted score matrix

    Örgryte →
    IFK Göteborg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.0%
    0–14.4%
    0–22.9%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–07.4%
    1–19.8%
    1–25.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–19.7%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–05.3%
    3–16.6%
    3–24.1%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–04.3%
    4+–15.4%
    4+–23.3%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-08%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,04–1,24
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @2.48
    Over 2,564%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • IFK Göteborg to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.08

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • IFK Göteborg to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Tobias Heintz to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Tobias Heintz to score28%
    • Charlie Vindehall to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Örgryte21% probability@4.92PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    • 2 · Örgryte21% probability@4.73BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • 2 · Örgryte21% probability@4.73BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · IFK GöteborgX2 · Örgryte
    Betsafe1.684.10
    EV+ 1%
    4.73
    Betsson1.684.10
    EV+ 1%
    4.73
    Nordicbet1.684.10
    EV+ 1%
    4.73
    Pinnacle1.624.40
    EV+ 5%
    4.92

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 14:29

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    61 %56 %

    1.55 → 1.62

    X0 %
    24 %19 %

    4.38 → 4.40

    2-4 %
    22 %17 %

    5.13 → 4.92

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    IFK Göteborg 1Draw 0Örgryte 0
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 5)

    Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    IFK Göteborg
    Örgryte
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    IFK Göteborg (23–39)
    Örgryte (22–41)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    IFK Göteborg
    August Erlingmark: 282 passningar, xT 0.29ErlingmarkHjörtur Hermannsson: 222 passningar, xT 0.32HermannssonDavid Kjær Kruse: 190 passningar, xT 0.23KruseNoah Tolf: 178 passningar, xT 0.76TolfFelix Eriksson: 166 passningar, xT 0.37ErikssonOliver Månsson: 157 passningar, xT 0.3MånssonSam Larsson: 144 passningar, xT 0.71LarssonTobias Heintz: 134 passningar, xT 0.76HeintzRockson Yeboah: 133 passningar, xT 0.24YeboahAdam Wiberg: 94 passningar, xT -0.05WibergKolbeinn Thordarson: 88 passningar, xT 0.31Thordarson
    Örgryte
    Owen Parker-Price: 250 passningar, xT 1.2Parker-PriceMikael Dyrestam: 205 passningar, xT 0.13DyrestamBenjamin Laturnus: 193 passningar, xT 0.77LaturnusTobias Sana: 155 passningar, xT 0.85SanaSebastian Lagerlund: 147 passningar, xT 0.17LagerlundChristoffer Styffe: 114 passningar, xT 0.18StyffeMichael Parker: 96 passningar, xT 0.32ParkerDaniel Paulson: 93 passningar, xT 0.34PaulsonAdam Andersson: 81 passningar, xT 0.28AnderssonJohan Hammar: 78 passningar, xT 0.15HammarWilliam Hofvander: 68 passningar, xT 0.41Hofvander
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    IFK Göteborg
    August Erlingmark: 282 passningar, xT 0.29ErlingmarkHjörtur Hermannsson: 222 passningar, xT 0.32HermannssonDavid Kjær Kruse: 190 passningar, xT 0.23KruseNoah Tolf: 178 passningar, xT 0.76TolfFelix Eriksson: 166 passningar, xT 0.37ErikssonOliver Månsson: 157 passningar, xT 0.3MånssonSam Larsson: 144 passningar, xT 0.71LarssonTobias Heintz: 134 passningar, xT 0.76HeintzRockson Yeboah: 133 passningar, xT 0.24YeboahAdam Wiberg: 94 passningar, xT -0.05WibergKolbeinn Thordarson: 88 passningar, xT 0.31Thordarson
    Örgryte
    Owen Parker-Price: 250 passningar, xT 1.2Parker-PriceMikael Dyrestam: 205 passningar, xT 0.13DyrestamBenjamin Laturnus: 193 passningar, xT 0.77LaturnusTobias Sana: 155 passningar, xT 0.85SanaSebastian Lagerlund: 147 passningar, xT 0.17LagerlundChristoffer Styffe: 114 passningar, xT 0.18StyffeMichael Parker: 96 passningar, xT 0.32ParkerDaniel Paulson: 93 passningar, xT 0.34PaulsonAdam Andersson: 81 passningar, xT 0.28AnderssonJohan Hammar: 78 passningar, xT 0.15HammarWilliam Hofvander: 68 passningar, xT 0.41Hofvander

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceIFK GöteborgÖrgryte
    Points2014
    xPoints27.520.4
    xG per match1.61.1
    xGA per match1.41.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.35
    Playing styleIFK GöteborgÖrgryte
    Build-up efficiency0.330.37
    Field tilt0.510.35
    xT per match1.41.2
    xTA per match1.51.6
    Won balls, offensive half3227
    Pressing intensity0.520.5
    Pressing efficiency0.250.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.23
    Entries into the box per match1513
    Entries into the box against1317
    Pass completion %0.80.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.74
    Passes per match381342
    Passes against per match366480
    Switches of play per match1516.1
    Long balls per match3127
    Set piecesIFK GöteborgÖrgryte
    xG from free kicks0.170.12
    Corners per match6.74
    Corners against per match4.96
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.55
    OtherIFK GöteborgÖrgryte
    Throw-in control0.560.57
    The goalkeepersElis Bishesari (IFK Göteborg)Hampus Gustafsson (Örgryte)
    Saves3864
    Save %57%61%
    xG prevented32%33%
    Claims56 (85%)108 (92%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    IFK Göteborg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Örgryte
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins IFK Göteborg vs Örgryte according to our model?

    The model gives IFK Göteborg a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Göteborg 57%, draw 21%, Örgryte 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.