Sirius vs Häcken: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan21 August 2026 19:00 CESTStudenternas, Uppsala16°0,6 mm11 km/h

Läs på svenska

SiriusBalanced & physical

HäckenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Sirius (59%)

1 · Sirius 59%X 21%20% Häcken · 2

59%

21%

20%

Analysis: Sirius – Häcken

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Sirius comes into this match with a commanding 59% chance of victory against Häcken. The model's confidence in the hosts is clear, as they not only lead on points and expected points but also boast a superior expected goals tally. Despite Häcken's historical advantage in this fixture, winning four of the past seven, the form book strongly favors the home side.

The likelihood of a 2-1 win for Sirius underscores the offensive prowess they've consistently displayed, netting in 31 consecutive league matches. With over 2.5 goals occurring in 66% of scenarios and both teams likely to score, the expectation is for an action-packed encounter. The hosts' balanced and physical style may counter Häcken's possession-based, high-press system, especially given the goal-scoring threats on both sides.

For those seeking value, Sirius at 1.81 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers a 7% edge over the bookies' odds. While Häcken has dominated past meetings, the model’s insights paint a different picture this time. Sirius is poised to capitalize on their form advantage and deliver a home victory.

Sirius

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #5xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Isak BjerkeboLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.32
Robbie UreFxG 0.63 · xT 0.05
Oscar KrusnellLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.34

Häcken

Form WDDLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #3xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Julius LindbergFxG 0.35 · xT 0.22
Adrian SvanbäckFxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
Amor LayouniRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.50

Match prediction: Sirius – Häcken

Predicted score matrix

Häcken →

Sirius →

0–03.7%

0–14.0%

0–22.6%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–07.0%

1–19.3%

1–25.6%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.8%

2–19.7%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–05.6%

3–16.9%

3–24.3%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.7%

4+–04.9%

4+–16.1%

4+–23.7%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-08%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,14–1,24

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@2.92EV+1%

Over 2,566%

@1.39

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sirius to win59%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sirius to win59%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Isak Bjerkebo to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Isak Bjerkebo to score41%
Abdoulaye Doumbia to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sirius59% probability@1.86BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Sirius59% probability@1.86BetssonEV+10%reference odds
1 · Sirius59% probability@1.86NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sirius	X	2 · Häcken
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 1.86	4.07	3.71
Betsson	EV+ 10% 1.86	4.07	3.71
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 1.86	4.07	3.71

Odds updated 18 Aug, 20:36

Odds movement

1+4 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.86

X-3 %

25 %20 %

4.19 → 4.07

2-6 %

26 %21 %

3.95 → 3.71

Over 2,50 %

71 %66 %

1.39 → 1.39

Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Sirius 1Draw 2Häcken 4

Goals: 8–15 (⌀ 3,3)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

BK Häcken dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.3 goals per meeting on average.
IK Sirius FK have scored in 31 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sirius

Häcken

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sirius (47–23)

Häcken (29–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sirius

Häcken

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sirius

Häcken

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sirius	Häcken
Points	42	28
xPoints	33.4	26.1
xG per match	2	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.29

Playing style	Sirius	Häcken
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.45	0.49
xT per match	1.4	1.6
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	31	27
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	14
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.78
Passes per match	389	428
Passes against per match	421	383
Switches of play per match	17.1	14
Long balls per match	30	31

Set pieces	Sirius	Häcken
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.11
Corners per match	5.8	5.4
Corners against per match	4.8	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.62

Other	Sirius	Häcken
Throw-in control	0.58	0.66

The goalkeepers	David Celic (Sirius)	Andreas Linde (Häcken)
Saves	52	41
Save %	69%	73%
xG prevented	43%	52%
Claims	86 (90%)	48 (89%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sirius vs Häcken according to our model?

The model gives Sirius a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sirius 59%, draw 21%, Häcken 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.