Sirius vs Degerfors: Prediction & Odds (14 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan14 September 2026 19:00 CESTStudenternas, Uppsala12°10 km/h

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SiriusBalanced & physical

DegerforsBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Sirius (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · Degerfors @ 7.20 (+16 %)

1 · Sirius 65%X 19%16% Degerfors · 2

65%

19%

16%

Analysis: Sirius – Degerfors

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A striking pattern emerges when we look at the numbers for Sirius against Degerfors. The hosts have not only dominated their opponents historically with three wins in their last five encounters, but they also hold a significant advantage in both points and expected goals metrics this season. With Sirius sitting on 45 points compared to Degerfors' 19, the gap in quality is evident, further emphasized by Sirius' superior xG and xGA figures. This match seems primed for a Sirius victory, reflecting the model's 65% win probability for the hosts.

The expected goals for this clash suggest a likely barrage from the home side, with Sirius projected at 2.31 against Degerfors' 0.96. Given this, the most probable scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 in favor of Sirius make perfect sense, aligning with the historical average of 3.4 goals per game in this fixture. With a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals, the crowd at Studenternas IP should be entertained, though the 56% chance of both teams finding the net suggests Degerfors might not go quietly.

Despite the clear edge for Sirius, there's an intriguing betting angle on the visitors. With odds of 7.2 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, Degerfors are priced at a 16% win probability, matching the model's assessment and offering a 16% edge. While an away win seems unlikely given the numbers, such value can't be ignored for those hunting a potential windfall.

Ultimately, Sirius are well-placed to continue their dominance over Degerfors, with a 2-0 win as the most likely outcome. Yet, for the risk-takers eyeing an upset, the betting markets offer a tempting proposition on the visitors.

Sirius

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #8xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Isak BjerkeboLWxG 0.53 · xT 0.32
Robbie UreFxG 0.63 · xT 0.05
Oscar KrusnellLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.31

Degerfors

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #10xP/match #13Points #14

Key players

Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.32
Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.24 · xT 0.19
Daniel SundgrenRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Sirius – Degerfors

Predicted score matrix

Degerfors →

Sirius →

0–04.0%

0–13.4%

0–21.7%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.5%

1–18.7%

1–24.0%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.1%

2–19.7%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.8%

3–17.5%

3–23.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.8%

4+–17.5%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,31–0,96

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@2.32

Over 2,564%

@1.58EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sirius to win65%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sirius to win65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Robbie Ure to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Robbie Ure to score41%
Nikolai Skuseth to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Degerfors16% probability@7.20BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
2 · Degerfors16% probability@7.20BetssonEV+16%reference odds
2 · Degerfors16% probability@7.20NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sirius	X	2 · Degerfors
Betsafe	1.47	4.32	EV+ 16% 7.20
Betsson	1.47	4.32	EV+ 16% 7.20
Nordicbet	1.47	4.32	EV+ 16% 7.20
Pinnacle	1.42	4.65	EV+ 9% 6.79

Odds updated 11 Sept, 07:38

Odds movement

10 %

68 %63 %

1.42 → 1.42

X0 %

23 %18 %

4.65 → 4.65

2+1 %

17 %12 %

6.69 → 6.79

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Sirius 3Draw 1Degerfors 1

Goals: 11–6 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

IK Sirius FK dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sirius

Degerfors

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sirius (48–27)

Degerfors (19–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sirius

Degerfors

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sirius

Degerfors

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sirius	Degerfors
Points	45	19
xPoints	37.8	21.1
xG per match	1.9	0.92
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.33

Playing style	Sirius	Degerfors
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.46	0.44
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	31	33
Pressing intensity	0.51	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.27
Entries into the box per match	15	11
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.82	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.74
Passes per match	391	350
Passes against per match	427	420
Switches of play per match	16.9	13.9
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Sirius	Degerfors
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.09
Corners per match	5.6	4.8
Corners against per match	5	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.63

Other	Sirius	Degerfors
Throw-in control	0.6	0.54

The goalkeepers	David Celic (Sirius)	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)
Saves	61	67
Save %	69%	68%
xG prevented	42%	41%
Claims	106 (91%)	97 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sirius

Fixtures, form & tips

Degerfors

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sirius vs Degerfors according to our model?

The model gives Sirius a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sirius 65%, draw 19%, Degerfors 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.