Swedish AllsvenskanStrandvallen, Sölvesborg15°19 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    MjällbyMjällbyPossession control
    vs
    IFK GöteborgIFK GöteborgPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Mjällby (47%)

    Mjällby – IFK Göteborg · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Mjällby 47%X 24%29% IFK Göteborg · 2

    Analysis: Mjällby – IFK Göteborg

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Mjällby faces off against IFK Göteborg with the hosts slightly tipped by the model, holding a 47% chance of victory. Yet, the visitors have a knack for pressing high and controlling possession, which could unsettle Mjällby's preferred style of retaining the ball. Despite the hosts' historical edge in this fixture, the small sample size of seven matches suggests this pattern might not be as significant as current form and expected goals.

    The expected goals metric shows a slight advantage to Göteborg, 1.6 to Mjällby's 1.3. However, Mjällby's xGA is higher at 1.7 compared to Göteborg's 1.3, indicating that the visitors have been more defensively sound. This defensive solidity might just give Göteborg an edge in nullifying Mjällby's attack, despite the hosts’ historical dominance. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (11%) suggests a close encounter, with a 2-1 win for Mjällby also on the cards at 9%.

    Goal projections hint at a lively game, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to find the net. The model flags a significant value opportunity in backing over 4.5 goals at odds of 5.4 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, rating it a 21% probability—a 16% edge. This suggests potential for a more open game than the xG might imply, offering bettors a tempting high-risk, high-reward scenario.

    Ultimately, while Mjällby is slightly favored, IFK Göteborg's better xPoints and defensive metrics suggest they could clinch a narrow victory. A 1-2 win for the visitors is plausible, but with such enticing odds on a high goal count, the over 4.5 market stands out as the sharper play for those eyeing substantial returns.

    MjällbyMjällby
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #8xP/match #14Points #12
    Key players
    • Abdoulie MannehFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
    • Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49
    • Áki SamuelsenLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.31
    IFK GöteborgIFK Göteborg
    Form WWLDW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #5xP/match #6Points #11
    Key players
    • Tobias HeintzLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.47
    • Adam WibergFxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
    • Felix ErikssonRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Mjällby – IFK Göteborg

    Predicted score matrix

    IFK Göteborg →
    Mjällby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.5%
    0–15.6%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–110.7%
    1–27.3%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–19.2%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–15.4%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,76–1,41
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,539%
    @2.20
    Over 2,561%
    @1.68EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Mjällby to win47%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.60

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Mjällby to win47%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Jacob Bergström to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Jacob Bergström to score27%
    • Oliver Månsson to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Mjällby47% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Mjällby47% probability@2.38BetssonEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Mjällby47% probability@2.38NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · MjällbyX2 · IFK Göteborg
    Bet3652.003.603.30
    Betfair Exchange1.951.101.10
    Betsafe
    EV+ 12%
    2.38    		3.592.84
    Betsson
    EV+ 12%
    2.38    		3.592.84
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 12%
    2.38    		3.592.84
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    2.34    		3.582.84

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 06:33

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    43 %38 %

    2.27 → 2.34

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.59 → 3.58

    2-3 %
    35 %30 %

    2.94 → 2.84

    Over 2,5+1 %
    59 %54 %

    1.67 → 1.68

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Mjällby 4Draw 1IFK Göteborg 2
    Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 1,3)

    Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Mjällby AIF dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mjällby
    IFK Göteborg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mjällby (24–27)
    IFK Göteborg (24–39)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mjällby
    Axel Norén: 206 passningar, xT 0.49NorénAbdullah Iqbal: 172 passningar, xT 0.32IqbalJesper Gustavsson: 168 passningar, xT 0.21GustavssonTony Miettinen: 157 passningar, xT 0.09MiettinenViktor Gustafson: 121 passningar, xT 0.18GustafsonTom Pettersson: 117 passningar, xT 0.23PetterssonLudvig Svanberg: 110 passningar, xT 0.13SvanbergÁki Samuelsen: 101 passningar, xT 0.36SamuelsenJeppe Kjaer Jensen: 100 passningar, xT 0.74JensenRobin Wallinder: 86 passningar, xT 0.15WallinderElliot Stroud: 80 passningar, xT 0.25Stroud
    IFK Göteborg
    August Erlingmark: 238 passningar, xT 0.25ErlingmarkHjörtur Hermannsson: 237 passningar, xT 0.43HermannssonNoah Tolf: 226 passningar, xT 0.91TolfFelix Eriksson: 213 passningar, xT 0.44ErikssonOliver Månsson: 184 passningar, xT 0.3MånssonDavid Kjær Kruse: 163 passningar, xT 0.09KruseSam Larsson: 151 passningar, xT 0.78LarssonTobias Heintz: 116 passningar, xT 1.05HeintzViktor Andersson: 86 passningar, xT 0.09AnderssonAdam Wiberg: 85 passningar, xT 0.1WibergSebastian Clemmensen: 74 passningar, xT -0.11Clemmensen
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mjällby
    Axel Norén: 206 passningar, xT 0.49NorénAbdullah Iqbal: 172 passningar, xT 0.32IqbalJesper Gustavsson: 168 passningar, xT 0.21GustavssonTony Miettinen: 157 passningar, xT 0.09MiettinenViktor Gustafson: 121 passningar, xT 0.18GustafsonTom Pettersson: 117 passningar, xT 0.23PetterssonLudvig Svanberg: 110 passningar, xT 0.13SvanbergÁki Samuelsen: 101 passningar, xT 0.36SamuelsenJeppe Kjaer Jensen: 100 passningar, xT 0.74JensenRobin Wallinder: 86 passningar, xT 0.15WallinderElliot Stroud: 80 passningar, xT 0.25Stroud
    IFK Göteborg
    August Erlingmark: 238 passningar, xT 0.25ErlingmarkHjörtur Hermannsson: 237 passningar, xT 0.43HermannssonNoah Tolf: 226 passningar, xT 0.91TolfFelix Eriksson: 213 passningar, xT 0.44ErikssonOliver Månsson: 184 passningar, xT 0.3MånssonDavid Kjær Kruse: 163 passningar, xT 0.09KruseSam Larsson: 151 passningar, xT 0.78LarssonTobias Heintz: 116 passningar, xT 1.05HeintzViktor Andersson: 86 passningar, xT 0.09AnderssonAdam Wiberg: 85 passningar, xT 0.1WibergSebastian Clemmensen: 74 passningar, xT -0.11Clemmensen

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMjällbyIFK Göteborg
    Points2023
    xPoints17.729.4
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match1.71.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.460.24
    Playing styleMjällbyIFK Göteborg
    Build-up efficiency0.310.33
    Field tilt0.520.52
    xT per match1.41.4
    xTA per match1.41.5
    Won balls, offensive half3332
    Pressing intensity0.550.52
    Pressing efficiency0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.26
    Entries into the box per match1415
    Entries into the box against1413
    Pass completion %0.810.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.75
    Passes per match418382
    Passes against per match381365
    Switches of play per match17.314.9
    Long balls per match3131
    Set piecesMjällbyIFK Göteborg
    xG from free kicks0.20.17
    Corners per match4.86.9
    Corners against per match4.44.9
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.62
    OtherMjällbyIFK Göteborg
    Throw-in control0.570.56
    The goalkeepersRobin Wallinder (Mjällby)Elis Bishesari (IFK Göteborg)
    Saves5738
    Save %68%57%
    xG prevented42%32%
    Claims96 (90%)56 (85%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mjällby vs IFK Göteborg according to our model?

    The model gives Mjällby a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mjällby 47%, draw 24%, IFK Göteborg 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.