Örgryte vs Halmstad: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan22 August 2026 15:00 CESTGamla Ullevi, Göteborg14°6,3 mm24 km/h

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ÖrgryteBalanced & physical

HalmstadCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Örgryte (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.18 (+6 %)

1 · Örgryte 46%X 28%26% Halmstad · 2

46%

28%

26%

Analysis: Örgryte – Halmstad

Sofia Andersson · 18 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Three consecutive losses for Halmstads BK hang over their visit to face Örgryte IS, where the home team is favoured in this clash. Örgryte IS not only have the model's backing with a 46% chance of winning, but they also boast a stronger position in both the points and expected points metrics. Their xPoints (19.0) notably outpace Halmstads BK (15.1), highlighting their superior form since the start of 2023.

Halmstads BK's weaknesses are stark, particularly defensively, where their xGA per match stands at a troubling 2.3 compared to Örgryte IS’s 1.9. This defensive frailty is compounded by their reliance on counter attacks and crosses, a style that may struggle against Örgryte IS’s balanced and physical approach. Although the head-to-head record since 2023 shows a solitary win for Halmstads BK, such a small sample size weighs less heavily than current form and expected goals data.

Örgryte IS have a slight edge in expected goals, generating 1.1 xG per match compared to Halmstads BK’s 0.9. The most likely scorelines, notably 1-1 and 1-0, indicate a probable close contest. The model suggests a 51% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood for both teams to score, but these are closely contested by the defensive metrics and play styles.

The sharpest betting angle emerges from the under 2.5 goals market. Odds of 2.18 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet carry a 6% edge according to model assessments, rating the under 2.5 at 49%. With the weather not mentioned, there's no exogenous influence to muddy the waters, making the under 2.5 goals bet a value play in what promises to be a physical and potentially low-scoring affair.

Örgryte

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #14xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Noah ChristofferssonFxG 0.39 · xT 0.03
William HofvanderRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
Anton AndreassonLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.07

Halmstad

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #13xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Hussein CarneilFxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
Rami KaibLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.31
André BomanRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Örgryte – Halmstad

Predicted score matrix

Halmstad →

Örgryte →

0–06.9%

0–17.4%

0–24.6%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.1%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.2%

2–25.5%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.0%

3–14.8%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,18

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.18EV+6%

Over 2,551%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Örgryte to win46%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Örgryte to win46%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Noah Christoffersson to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Noah Christoffersson to score43%
Erko Tõugjas to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.549% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.18BetssonEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.18NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Örgryte	X	2 · Halmstad
Betsafe	2.00	EV+ 2% 3.67	3.59
Betsson	2.00	EV+ 2% 3.67	3.59
Nordicbet	2.00	EV+ 2% 3.67	3.59

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Örgryte win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.24 to 2.00 (−11%).

1-11 %

50 %40 %

2.24 → 2.00

X+7 %

32 %22 %

3.42 → 3.67

2+13 %

34 %24 %

3.19 → 3.59

Over 2,5-7 %

60 %50 %

1.78 → 1.65

Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Örgryte 0Draw 0Halmstad 1

Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Halmstad have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Örgryte

Halmstad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Örgryte (21–40)

Halmstad (11–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Örgryte

Halmstad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Örgryte

Halmstad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Örgryte	Halmstad
Points	13	7
xPoints	19	15.1
xG per match	1.1	0.9
xGA per match	1.9	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.45

Playing style	Örgryte	Halmstad
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.34
Field tilt	0.36	0.39
xT per match	1.2	1.2
xTA per match	1.6	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	27	29
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	17	19
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.73
Passes per match	338	318
Passes against per match	481	515
Switches of play per match	16.3	15.9
Long balls per match	27	27

Set pieces	Örgryte	Halmstad
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.11
Corners per match	4.1	3.6
Corners against per match	5.7	7.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.5

Other	Örgryte	Halmstad
Throw-in control	0.56	0.59

The goalkeepers	Hampus Gustafsson (Örgryte)	Tim Rönning (Halmstad)
Saves	58	67
Save %	59%	68%
xG prevented	32%	53%
Claims	97 (92%)	102 (94%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Örgryte vs Halmstad according to our model?

The model gives Örgryte a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örgryte 46%, draw 28%, Halmstad 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.