Örgryte vs Hammarby: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan6 September 2026 14:00 CESTGamla Ullevi, Göteborg15°19 km/h

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ÖrgryteBalanced & physical

HammarbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (71%)Best value by the model: 1 · Örgryte @ 12.74 (+46 %)

1 · Örgryte 11%X 17%71% Hammarby · 2

17%

71%

Analysis: Örgryte – Hammarby

Erik Lindberg · 1 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Hammarby's dominant 71% win probability leaves little room for doubt in their clash against Örgryte. With model probabilities emphasizing Hammarby's superiority, the visitors are expected to control the match. A 0-2 scoreline seems most likely, backed by expected goals of 2.39 for Hammarby compared to a mere 0.86 for Örgryte. The hosts will struggle to break through Hammarby’s high-press defense which has seen them score in 10 straight league outings.

Despite Örgryte's balanced and physical approach, their defense leaks an average xGA of 1.9 per match, a stark contrast to Hammarby's solid 0.98. The visitors' possession-based style is expected to exploit these defensive frailties. Head-to-head history offers little insight, as they've met just once since 2023, which Hammarby won. More telling are the standings and xPoints, both clearly favoring the away side.

For those seeking value, the odds of 10.37 for a home win at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present an interesting proposition. While the model gives Örgryte an 11% chance, these odds suggest a 19% edge. However, it's a punt on an unlikely upset rather than a conservative play. Expect a low-scoring win for the visitors, leaning towards under 2.5 goals despite the model's broader expectations.

Örgryte

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #13xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Noah ChristofferssonFxG 0.39 · xT 0.03
Adam AnderssonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.29
William HofvanderRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.19

Hammarby

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.28
Hampus SkoglundRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.20
Paulos AbrahamFxG 0.70 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Örgryte – Hammarby

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby →

Örgryte →

0–04.1%

0–19.1%

0–211.1%

0–38.9%

0–4+9.3%

1–03.1%

1–18.2%

1–29.5%

1–37.6%

1–4+7.9%

2–01.4%

2–13.4%

2–24.1%

2–33.2%

2–4+3.4%

3–00.4%

3–11.0%

3–21.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.2%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-211%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-39%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

0,86–2,39

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@3.15EV+17%

Over 2,563%

@1.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby to win71%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby to win71%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Markus Karlsson to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Markus Karlsson to score33%
Owen Parker-Price to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Örgryte11% probability@12.74BetsafeEV+46%reference odds
1 · Örgryte11% probability@12.74BetssonEV+46%reference odds
1 · Örgryte11% probability@12.74NordicbetEV+46%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Örgryte	X	2 · Hammarby
Betsafe	EV+ 46% 12.74	EV+ 3% 6.02	1.24
Betsson	EV+ 46% 12.74	EV+ 3% 6.02	1.24
Nordicbet	EV+ 46% 12.74	EV+ 3% 6.02	1.24
Pinnacle	EV+ 25% 10.89	EV+ 19% 6.94	1.21

Odds updated 4 Sept, 12:38

Odds movement

1+13 %

12 %7 %

9.66 → 10.89

X+7 %

16 %11 %

6.49 → 6.94

2-3 %

79 %74 %

1.24 → 1.21

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Örgryte 0Draw 0Hammarby 1

Goals: 1–8 (⌀ 9)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Hammarby have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Örgryte

Hammarby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Örgryte (22–42)

Hammarby (44–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Örgryte

Hammarby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Örgryte

Hammarby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Örgryte	Hammarby
Points	14	36
xPoints	21.2	34.4
xG per match	1.1	2.2
xGA per match	1.9	0.98
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.48
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.26

Playing style	Örgryte	Hammarby
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.35
Field tilt	0.35	0.75
xT per match	1.2	1.7
xTA per match	1.6	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	27	38
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	20
Entries into the box against	17	9
Pass completion %	0.78	0.87
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.82
Passes per match	342	549
Passes against per match	476	319
Switches of play per match	15.8	11.6
Long balls per match	27	24

Set pieces	Örgryte	Hammarby
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.18
Corners per match	4.1	6.5
Corners against per match	6.2	2.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.6

Other	Örgryte	Hammarby
Throw-in control	0.57	0.72

The goalkeepers	Hampus Gustafsson (Örgryte)	Warner Hahn (Hammarby)
Saves	71	40
Save %	63%	69%
xG prevented	35%	37%
Claims	115 (91%)	76 (97%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Örgryte vs Hammarby according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örgryte 11%, draw 17%, Hammarby 71%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.