01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sirius to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Swedish AllsvenskanIver Arena, Västerås14°1,6 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
Västerås SKBalanced & physical0–1
SiriusBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Sirius (57%)
Västerås SK – Sirius · Swedish Allsvenskan
1 · Västerås SK 22%X 21%57% Sirius · 2
22%
21%
57%
Analysis: Västerås SK – Sirius
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Despite Sirius's recent three-game losing streak, the numbers suggest they should take control when they face Västerås. With a commanding 57% win probability, the visitors are clearly favored. Västerås, while resilient, may struggle against the more potent Sirius attack that averages 1.9 xG per match compared to Västerås's 1.1. Such a discrepancy points to Sirius having the upper hand, even if their current form is shaky.
The expected goals tally reinforces this assessment, with Sirius projected at 1.65 compared to Västerås's 1.18. The small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows Sirius with a clear edge (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in Västerås's favor), but these past encounters carry less weight than the ongoing season metrics, which consistently favor the visitors. Sirius's defensive solidity, allowing just 1.1 xGA per match, is likely to suppress Västerås's efforts to break through.
Considering the over 2.5 goals probability at 54%, it appears there's a fair chance of a moderately high-scoring affair, yet not overwhelmingly so. The likelihood of both teams finding the net sits at 56%, which aligns with the model's favorite scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1. A narrow Sirius victory seems plausible, though unlikely to be a goal-fest.
The sharpest angle for punters lies in the away win at odds of 1.97 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, presenting a significant 13% value edge according to the models. Despite recent setbacks, Sirius's statistical dominance and the historical context make backing them the sound play. The visitors' tactical balance and physicality should see them through what could be a tightly contested yet slightly tilted encounter in their favor.
Västerås SKForm LWLDW
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #16xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Mikkel LadefogedFxG 0.52 · xT -0.02
- Simon GefvertRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
- Herman MagnussonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
SiriusForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #7xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Isak BjerkeboLWxG 0.53 · xT 0.33
- Robbie UreFxG 0.63 · xT 0.05
- Oscar KrusnellLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.32
Final score
0 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Västerås SK 22% · Draw 21% · Sirius 57%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - IK Sirius FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,02fair 7,18-30 %
MissMatchresultat - Västerås SKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,08fair 13,98-35 %
MissMatch prediction: Västerås SK – Sirius
Predicted score matrix
Sirius →
Västerås SK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–19.4%
0–28.0%
0–34.4%
0–4+2.6%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.8%
1–29.5%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.1%
2–16.8%
2–25.6%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.7%
3–22.2%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,18–1,65
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.32EV+7%
Over 2,554%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sirius to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Robbie Ure to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Robbie Ure to score30%
- Ismet Lushaku to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sirius57% probability@1.97BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Sirius57% probability@1.97BetssonEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Sirius57% probability@1.97NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Västerås SK | X | 2 · Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Betsafe | 3.64 | 3.72 | EV+ 13% 1.97 |
| Betsson | 3.64 | 3.72 | EV+ 13% 1.97 |
| Nordicbet | 3.64 | 3.72 | EV+ 13% 1.97 |
| Pinnacle | 3.85 | 4.03 | EV+ 6% 1.86 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 16:31
Odds movement
1-3 %
27 %22 %
3.98 → 3.85
X-1 %
26 %21 %
4.09 → 4.03
2+6 %
54 %49 %
1.76 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesVästerås SK 0Draw 1Sirius 2
Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.
Key facts
- IK Sirius FK have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Västerås SK
Sirius
Västerås SK (28–33)
Sirius (47–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Västerås SK
Sirius
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Västerås SK
Sirius
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Västerås SK | Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 29 | 42 |
| xPoints | 22.9 | 35.8 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Västerås SK | Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 366 | 394 |
| Passes against per match | 404 | 425 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.3 | 17 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Västerås SK | Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| Other | Västerås SK | Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Elis Jäger (Västerås SK) | David Celic (Sirius) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 68 | 60 |
| Save % | 68% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 42% |
| Claims | 61 (84%) | 98 (91%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Örgryte – Hammarby6 September 2026 14:00 CEST
- Brommapojkarna – Elfsborg6 September 2026 16:30 CEST
- Mjällby – IFK Göteborg7 September 2026 19:00 CEST
- Malmö FF – AIK7 September 2026 19:00 CEST
- Kalmar FF – Djurgården7 September 2026 19:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Västerås SK vs Sirius according to our model?
The model gives Sirius a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Västerås SK 22%, draw 21%, Sirius 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.