Västerås SK vs Kalmar FF: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan23 August 2026 14:00 CESTIver Arena, Västerås14°4,2 mm11 km/h

Läs på svenska

Västerås SKBalanced & physical

Kalmar FFPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Kalmar FF (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.02 (+4 %)

1 · Västerås SK 33%X 28%38% Kalmar FF · 2

33%

28%

38%

Analysis: Västerås SK – Kalmar FF

Erik Lindberg · 15 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Three matches between Västerås SK FK and Kalmar FF since 2023 and Västerås have claimed every single one. Yet, before you get carried away by this head-to-head record, remember the small sample size. Digging deeper, Kalmar's edge in both xG and xGA per match suggests that they might be the better side over the long haul, but Västerås SK FK have shown a knack for making the most of their chances, which defies their lower xPoints.

Kalmar FF come into this clash with a slight model-favored probability at 38%, against Västerås SK FK’s 33%. However, both teams' capacity to find the back of the net, backed by a 53% chance of both teams scoring, suggests a tight affair. The expected goal figures tilt slightly towards Västerås SK FK at 1.41 to Kalmar FF’s 1.21, yet the visitors’ higher xG and tighter xGA may indicate they could weather and counter Västerås’ physical style, especially with the rain potentially hampering Västerås’ rhythm.

Västerås SK FK's points tally of 25 compared to Kalmar FF’s 18 might hint at a stronger squad on paper, but the discrepancy between their actual points and xPoints—23.2 for Kalmar FF and 19.9 for Västerås SK FK—tells the story of a home side that’s perhaps overperforming and a visiting team underachieving. Kalmar FF’s possession-based approach could help them control the game, particularly if Västerås struggle to find fluency in damp conditions.

The most likely scoreline, according to the models, sits at 1-1 with a 13% probability. This aligns with the edge in xG for Västerås but acknowledges Kalmar’s defensive sturdiness. The over/under 2.5 goals rests perfectly balanced at 49%, but the weather forecast suggests leaning towards the under, potentially keeping the total goals suppressed.

The shrewdest angle here? A sneaky value on Kalmar FF to edge it, despite Västerås’ head-to-head superiority. Bet365 offers Kalmar at enticing odds of 2.80, a price that could well reward those backing the model’s lean in a game encumbered by rain and possession play.

Västerås SK

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #16xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Mikkel LadefogedFxG 0.52 · xT -0.02
Simon GefvertRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Herman MagnussonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10

Kalmar FF

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #8xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Anthony OlusanyaFxG 0.37 · xT -0.03
Charles Sagoe JrLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
Charlie RosenqvistRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Västerås SK – Kalmar FF

Predicted score matrix

Kalmar FF →

Västerås SK →

0–07.7%

0–18.4%

0–25.3%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.9%

1–112.8%

1–27.5%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.3%

2–18.8%

2–25.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.4%

3–14.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,41–1,21

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.02EV+4%

Over 2,549%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kalmar FF or draw (X2)59%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kalmar FF or draw (X2)59%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Charlie Rosenqvist to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Bonaventure Lendambi to score27%
Lars Sætra to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.551% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.02BetssonEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.02NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Västerås SK	X	2 · Kalmar FF
Betsafe	2.63	3.42	EV+ 0% 2.63
Betsson	2.63	3.42	EV+ 0% 2.63
Nordicbet	2.63	3.42	EV+ 0% 2.63

Odds updated 18 Aug, 15:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

38 %33 %

2.74 → 2.63

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.42 → 3.42

2+4 %

39 %34 %

2.54 → 2.63

Over 2,5-2 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.75

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Västerås SK 3Draw 0Kalmar FF 0

Goals: 7–1 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Västerås SK

Kalmar FF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Västerås SK (25–32)

Kalmar FF (21–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Västerås SK

Kalmar FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Västerås SK

Kalmar FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Västerås SK	Kalmar FF
Points	25	18
xPoints	19.9	23.2
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	1.7	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.2

Playing style	Västerås SK	Kalmar FF
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.48
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	1.6	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	30	32
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	16
Entries into the box against	16	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.77
Passes per match	357	395
Passes against per match	400	452
Switches of play per match	16.1	14.4
Long balls per match	30	30

Set pieces	Västerås SK	Kalmar FF
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.12
Corners per match	4.2	5
Corners against per match	5.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.6

Other	Västerås SK	Kalmar FF
Throw-in control	0.57	0.6

The goalkeepers	Elis Jäger (Västerås SK)	Samuel Brolin (Kalmar FF)
Saves	57	32
Save %	65%	73%
xG prevented	42%	50%
Claims	53 (82%)	50 (88%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Västerås SK vs Kalmar FF according to our model?

The model gives Kalmar FF a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Västerås SK 33%, draw 28%, Kalmar FF 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.