Assyriska FF vs AFC Eskilstuna: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan17 September 2026 19:30 CEST13°0,6 mm20 km/h

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Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crosses

AFC EskilstunaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Assyriska FF (41%)

1 · Assyriska FF 41%X 28%31% AFC Eskilstuna · 2

41%

28%

31%

Analysis: Assyriska FF – AFC Eskilstuna

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A clash of styles awaits as Assyriska's counter-attacking flair lines up against AFC Eskilstuna's possession-based control. Despite Eskilstuna's superior points tally, the analytical model leans towards Assyriska, giving them a 41% chance of victory. This intrigue is matched by the expected goals — 1.61 for the hosts against 1.30 for the visitors — suggesting a tight contest where both teams are likely to find the net.

While AFC Eskilstuna holds a points advantage with 37 to Assyriska's 29, the xPoints metric reveals a different picture. Assyriska edges it slightly with 30.0 to Eskilstuna's 29.6, hinting at inefficiencies in capitalizing on chances by the visitors. Eskilstuna's marginally better xG (1.4 vs 1.3) doesn't overshadow the hosts' capability to consistently score, reflected in their eight-match scoring streak, while both sides carry an identical xGA of 1.3.

With over 2.5 goals favored at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, the probabilities suggest an engaging encounter. The model's prediction of a 1-1 scoreline at 12% is the most likely, yet don't dismiss the 2-1 to Assyriska at 9%, aligning with their potential to exploit Eskilstuna's high line through incisive counter-attacks and crosses.

The betting value appears with Assyriska to win, given the model's 41% probability against the draw and Eskilstuna's chances. The hosts' knack for scoring, combined with Eskilstuna's occasional lapses in defense, makes backing Assyriska a compelling shot. Expect a tight victory for the home side, with a slight lean towards the over 2.5 goals.

Assyriska FF

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #19xGA #14xT #20xP/match #11Points #15

Key players

Sebastian WändinRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Viktor WiderbergFxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
Elias Ländin SjöblomLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.41

AFC Eskilstuna

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #31xP/match #12Points #6

Key players

Robin BjörkmanFxG 0.27 · xT 0.10
Lee HanssonFxG 0.34 · xT 0.21
Albin FlodkvistFxG 0.30 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Assyriska FF – AFC Eskilstuna

Predicted score matrix

AFC Eskilstuna →

Assyriska FF →

0–05.8%

0–16.8%

0–24.6%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.4%

1–111.8%

1–27.4%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.1%

2–19.2%

2–26.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.8%

3–14.9%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,61–1,30

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Kevin Jarrett to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Kevin Jarrett to score38%
Abdul Halik Hudu to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

Assyriska FF have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Assyriska FF

AFC Eskilstuna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Assyriska FF (34–32)

AFC Eskilstuna (35–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Assyriska FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Assyriska FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Assyriska FF	AFC Eskilstuna
Points	29	37
xPoints	30	29.6
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.19

Playing style	Assyriska FF	AFC Eskilstuna
Build-up efficiency	0.38	0.38
Field tilt	0.39	0.45
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	1.6	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	24	28
Pressing intensity	0.46	0.49
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.24
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	290	358
Passes against per match	405	402
Switches of play per match	16.8	16.4
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	Assyriska FF	AFC Eskilstuna
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.14
Corners per match	4.4	4.4
Corners against per match	5	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.56

Other	Assyriska FF	AFC Eskilstuna
Throw-in control	0.53	0.55

The goalkeepers	Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF)	AFC Eskilstuna
Saves	55	–
Save %	69%	–
xG prevented	43%	–
Claims	97 (90%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Assyriska FF

Fixtures, form & tips

AFC Eskilstuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Assyriska FF vs AFC Eskilstuna according to our model?

The model gives Assyriska FF a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Assyriska FF 41%, draw 28%, AFC Eskilstuna 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.