Åtvidaberg vs Olympic: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan12 September 2026 16:00 CEST15°12 km/h

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ÅtvidabergPossession & high press

OlympicPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Åtvidaberg (62%)

1 · Åtvidaberg 62%X 19%19% Olympic · 2

62%

19%

Analysis: Åtvidaberg – Olympic

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Åtvidaberg's pressing game will be their key weapon as they take on Olympic. The hosts have demonstrated a high-pressing, possession-based style that has paid off handsomely, reflected in their current points tally of 36. It's a stark contrast to Olympic's 26 points, which highlights Åtvidaberg's superior effectiveness this season. The model gives Åtvidaberg a solid 62% chance to secure victory, underlining their dominance in this matchup.

Despite both teams employing similar styles, Åtvidaberg has consistently come out on top in their recent encounters. The head-to-head record since 2023 is a clean sweep for Åtvidaberg, with three wins out of three, though the sample size is small. Still, the hosts have managed to convert their equal xG of 1.6 into tangible results, while also maintaining a more robust defense, conceding an average of just 1.1 xGA per match compared to Olympic's 1.6.

Goal expectations are high, with a strong 71% chance of over 2.5 goals according to the model. Both teams are likely to score, given the 68% probability, but Åtvidaberg's slightly sharper edge in defensive metrics leans the match towards a likely 2-1 scoreline. Their ability to control the game and press effectively could see them keeping Olympic at bay while capitalizing on their scoring opportunities.

For bettors, Åtvidaberg's home form and historical edge make them a favorable pick. Their 62% win probability suggests value, particularly if you find odds above the breakeven line. Keeping an eye on the exact scoreline markets, a 2-1 result offers an intriguing angle given its 9% likelihood. As the evening approaches, the data paints a clear picture: it's Åtvidaberg’s match to lose, and the over 2.5 goals bet looks promising.

Åtvidaberg

Form WWWLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #7xP/match #7Points #7

Key players

Erik GrandeliusRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.31
Adam SamuelssonFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
Haris RadetinacFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05

Olympic

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #25xT #9xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Albin SundgrenLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.31
Chibueze Blessing EjimoleFxG 0.49 · xT 0.12
Osama KhattabLWxG 0.43 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Åtvidaberg – Olympic

Predicted score matrix

Olympic →

Åtvidaberg →

0–02.8%

0–13.3%

0–22.4%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.5%

1–05.6%

1–18.3%

1–25.6%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.6%

2–19.2%

2–26.4%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.4%

3–05.1%

3–17.0%

3–24.9%

3–32.3%

3–4+1.1%

4+–04.9%

4+–16.9%

4+–24.8%

4+–32.2%

4+–4+1.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.1-18%
3.3-17%
4.2-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

2,29–1,39

Both teams to score

68%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,7

19%

217%

321%

419%

5+31%

Under 2,529%

–

Over 2,571%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Åtvidaberg to win62%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Åtvidaberg to win62%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Haris Radetinac to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score68%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Haris Radetinac to score26%
Jesper Lindvall to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Åtvidaberg 3Draw 0Olympic 0

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Åtvidaberg

Olympic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Åtvidaberg (42–30)

Olympic (36–40)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Åtvidaberg

Olympic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Åtvidaberg

Olympic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Åtvidaberg	Olympic
Points	36	26
xPoints	30.6	27.2
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.36

Playing style	Åtvidaberg	Olympic
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.35
Field tilt	0.61	0.51
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	30	23
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.77
Passes per match	445	406
Passes against per match	344	338
Switches of play per match	13.8	15.9
Long balls per match	31	31

Set pieces	Åtvidaberg	Olympic
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.17
Corners per match	6.3	5.2
Corners against per match	5.3	5.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.26	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.62

Other	Åtvidaberg	Olympic
Throw-in control	0.6	0.65

The goalkeepers	Hugo Claesson (Åtvidaberg)	Joakim Persson (Olympic)
Saves	47	56
Save %	61%	58%
xG prevented	41%	40%
Claims	82 (92%)	93 (94%)

Teams & more matches this round

Åtvidaberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Olympic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Åtvidaberg vs Olympic according to our model?

The model gives Åtvidaberg a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Åtvidaberg 62%, draw 19%, Olympic 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.