FBK Karlstad vs Vasalund: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan12 September 2026 16:00 CEST15°0,3 mm21 km/h

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FBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crosses

VasalundPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · FBK Karlstad (40%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Vasalund @ 2.85 (+2 %)

1 · FBK Karlstad 40%X 24%36% Vasalund · 2

40%

24%

36%

Analysis: FBK Karlstad – Vasalund

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA vs TEXT check reveals one error: the text states "A 2-1 scoreline in favor of Karlstad is the most probable," but according to the facts, the most probable scoreline is 1-1 (10%), with 2-1 (9%) being second most probable.

CORRECTED TEXT:

In the intricate dance between FBK Karlstad's counter-attacking flair and Vasalund's possession-heavy approach, the match is likely to be defined by who can impose their style more effectively. The numbers suggest a finely balanced encounter, with the hosts slightly favored by the model at 40% probability, compared to Vasalund's 36%. Yet, the visitors are not without their merits. Their ability to control the game could frustrate Karlstad's attempts to strike swiftly through counter-attacks and crosses.

Despite the narrow edge in probabilities, Karlstad have a more imposing presence in the standings, boasting 34 points over Vasalund's 23. The expected goals (xG) numbers also tip in Karlstad's favor, suggesting a slight edge in attacking threat with 1.76 expected goals against Vasalund's 1.52. However, both teams are predicted to find the net with a 65% chance for both to score, highlighting the potential for a closely fought contest.

The historical head-to-head record offers limited guidance with only three games since 2023, split evenly with one win each and a draw. While this small sample size suggests a relatively balanced rivalry, it's the season form and expected goals that provide a clearer picture. Karlstad's defensive setup, conceding fewer expected goals per match, may prove crucial in handling Vasalund's possession play.

For bettors, the value lies with the visitors at odds of 2.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite the hosts' slight statistical edge, the model's valuation of a 36% chance for Vasalund to win provides a 2% edge at these odds. If you’re looking for a sharp angle, this could be it. Given the attacking tendencies and the over 2.5 goals probability at 64%, expect a contested match with potential for goals. A 1-1 scoreline is the most probable outcome, but backing Vasalund could offer the more lucrative return.

FBK Karlstad

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #10xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Granit HanaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.11
Linus FredrikssonRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
Anton PärleholtRWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.32

Vasalund

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #26xT #23xP/match #26Points #25

Key players

Ali KhanLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.43
Christopher SliwoFxG 0.57 · xT 0.06
Marko NikolicFxG 0.19 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: FBK Karlstad – Vasalund

Predicted score matrix

Vasalund →

FBK Karlstad →

0–04.0%

0–15.4%

0–24.3%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.2%

1–06.3%

1–110.3%

1–27.6%

1–33.9%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.8%

2–18.9%

2–26.7%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.4%

3–15.2%

3–24.0%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.1%

4+–02.2%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.6%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,76–1,52

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@2.32

Over 2,564%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance FBK Karlstad or draw (1X)67%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance FBK Karlstad or draw (1X)67%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Granit Hana to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Elias Alarcon Mac Callum to score31%
Alexander Hagelberg to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vasalund36% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Vasalund36% probability@2.85BetssonEV+2%reference odds
2 · Vasalund36% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FBK Karlstad	X	2 · Vasalund
Betsafe	2.12	3.50	EV+ 2% 2.85
Betsson	2.12	3.50	EV+ 2% 2.85
Nordicbet	2.12	3.50	EV+ 2% 2.85

Odds updated 10 Sept, 07:37

Odds movement

1-3 %

45 %40 %

2.18 → 2.12

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.50

2+4 %

34 %29 %

2.75 → 2.85

Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

FBK Karlstad 1Draw 1Vasalund 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FBK Karlstad

Vasalund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FBK Karlstad (34–31)

Vasalund (32–41)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FBK Karlstad

Vasalund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FBK Karlstad

Vasalund

The teams in numbers

Performance	FBK Karlstad	Vasalund
Points	34	23
xPoints	32.5	24.7
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.35

Playing style	FBK Karlstad	Vasalund
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.36
Field tilt	0.41	0.54
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	34	29
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	15	14
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.71	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.75
Passes per match	266	373
Passes against per match	431	323
Switches of play per match	19	17.5
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	FBK Karlstad	Vasalund
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.14
Corners per match	5.4	4.9
Corners against per match	4.6	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.6

Other	FBK Karlstad	Vasalund
Throw-in control	0.48	0.57

The goalkeepers	Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad)	Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund)
Saves	54	45
Save %	67%	66%
xG prevented	54%	46%
Claims	69 (87%)	72 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

FBK Karlstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Vasalund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FBK Karlstad vs Vasalund according to our model?

The model gives FBK Karlstad a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FBK Karlstad 40%, draw 24%, Vasalund 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.