Gefle vs Arlanda: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan16 September 2026 19:30 CEST14°0,3 mm15 km/h

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GefleCounter-attacks & crosses

ArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Arlanda (40%)

1 · Gefle 34%X 25%40% Arlanda · 2

34%

25%

40%

Analysis: Gefle – Arlanda

Sofia Andersson · 9 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Arlanda's 40% win probability in the model suggests they've got the upper hand over Gefle, despite the tight expected goals of 1.54 to 1.44. This clash sees two counter-attacking teams squaring off, both relying on crosses, which could result in a cagey encounter. However, with a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals, the numbers hint at a match that might break open, especially considering the high likelihood of both teams finding the net at 60%.

The rain — 7.5 mm expected — might dampen fiery attacking play, but it's factored into the model already. Despite this, Arlanda's slight advantage in points and expected points suggests they're better equipped to handle such conditions. Gefle's single win in their three recent encounters with Arlanda, while balanced by a draw and a loss, doesn't paint a definitive picture of dominance. It's a small sample, so season form takes precedence.

Arlanda's superior xG of 1.4 per match compared to Gefle's 1.1 underscores their edge in creating quality chances. Defensively, both teams face the same xGA of 1.4, pointing to potential vulnerabilities at the back. Gefle's reliance on counter-attacks might struggle against a side that mirrors their style but does it a touch more effectively.

Given these factors, a 1-2 scoreline seems plausible, just edging out the 1-1 model favorite. The betting value lies with Unibet's odds for Arlanda at 2.5, reflecting their edge in key metrics, even if the rain might flatten out attacking verve briefly. This one's Arlanda's to lose, with an entertaining edge should they unlock Gefle's defense.

Gefle

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #26xGA #20xT #22xP/match #19Points #22

Key players

Deniz YaldirLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
Måns BerggrenFxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.31

Arlanda

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #13xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Carl NorbergRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.64
Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.27
Isac AntholmLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Gefle – Arlanda

Predicted score matrix

Arlanda →

Gefle →

0–05.4%

0–17.0%

0–25.2%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.5%

1–111.6%

1–28.1%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–18.7%

2–26.2%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.1%

3–14.5%

3–23.2%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,54–1,44

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Arlanda or draw (X2)60%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Arlanda or draw (X2)60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Samuel Dawid Rydz to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Lukas Vikgren to score30%
Mario Butros to be booked18%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Gefle 1Draw 1Arlanda 1

Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gefle

Arlanda

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gefle (25–38)

Arlanda (34–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gefle

Arlanda

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gefle

Arlanda

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gefle	Arlanda
Points	24	36
xPoints	26.4	28.7
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.29

Playing style	Gefle	Arlanda
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.34
Field tilt	0.43	0.41
xT per match	1.3	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	30	33
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.32
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.67
Passes per match	337	263
Passes against per match	439	334
Switches of play per match	16.3	17.7
Long balls per match	28	32

Set pieces	Gefle	Arlanda
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.13
Corners per match	3.8	3.6
Corners against per match	5.1	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.58

Other	Gefle	Arlanda
Throw-in control	0.58	0.42

The goalkeepers	Max Croon (Gefle)	Adam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)
Saves	62	69
Save %	62%	75%
xG prevented	38%	56%
Claims	83 (97%)	98 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gefle

Fixtures, form & tips

Arlanda

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gefle vs Arlanda according to our model?

The model gives Arlanda a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gefle 34%, draw 25%, Arlanda 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.