Swedish Ettan16°0,1 mm14 km/h

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    Hammarby TFFHammarby TFFPossession & high press
    vs
    SollentunaSollentunaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby TFF (69%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sollentuna @ 7.80 (+10 %)

    Hammarby TFF – Sollentuna · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Hammarby TFF 69%X 17%14% Sollentuna · 2

    Analysis: Hammarby TFF – Sollentuna

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The text includes betting odds ("Hammarby TFF to win at odds of 1.50 with Bet365") that are not present in the FACTS and thus appear fabricated/unsupported. Corrected text:

    Hammarby TFF heads into their clash against Sollentuna boasting a perfect, albeit small, head-to-head record. Their solitary encounter since 2023 ended in Hammarby's favor, providing a slight psychological edge. However, this single game sample is lightweight compared to the form and expected goals metrics that heavily tip the scale towards the home side.

    Delving into the numbers, Hammarby stands 15 points clear of Sollentuna in the league, underscoring their superior form. The xPoints also favor the hosts, clocking in at 29.6 to the visitors' 25.2, aligning with their more potent xG of 1.7 per match. Defensively, Hammarby’s resilience is evident with an xGA of only 0.8, a stark contrast to Sollentuna's 1.2. The data implies a controlled performance from the home team, likely keeping Sollentuna at bay.

    The model forecasts a 69% probability for a Hammarby victory, with the most probable scorelines being a 2-0 or 1-0 outcome. Sollentuna's chances of scoring feel slim, though not negligible, reflected in the 51% chance for both teams to find the net. Despite the 60% inclination towards over 2.5 goals, caution is warranted given the defensive solidity of Hammarby and their penchant for controlling games through possession and pressing.

    Given the statistical edge across both form and expected goal metrics, Hammarby TFF stands out as the model's clear lean to win this fixture.

    Hammarby TFFHammarby TFF
    Form WDLDD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #1xP/match #6Points #4
    Key players
    • Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.25
    • Adam JohanssonFxG 0.23 · xT 0.24
    • Noah EkLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.40
    SollentunaSollentuna
    Form LWWLW
    League ranking xG #25xGA #9xT #19xP/match #23Points #24
    Key players
    • Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
    • Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.32
    • Emil StenstrandCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.48

    Match prediction: Hammarby TFF – Sollentuna

    Predicted score matrix

    Sollentuna →
    Hammarby TFF →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–13.5%
    0–21.5%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–18.7%
    1–23.5%
    1–31.0%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–011.6%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–08.8%
    3–17.3%
    3–23.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–08.6%
    4+–17.1%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.3-09%
    5. 5.1-19%
    Expected goals
    2,28–0,83
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.38
    Over 2,560%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hammarby TFF to win69%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    60%

    Fair odds

    1.67

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hammarby TFF to win69%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Oskar Moczarny to score40%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Oskar Moczarny to score40%
    • Emil Stenstrand to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Sollentuna14% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    • 2 · Sollentuna14% probability@7.80BetssonEV+10%reference odds
    • 2 · Sollentuna14% probability@7.80NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hammarby TFFX2 · Sollentuna
    Betsafe1.275.15
    EV+ 10%
    7.80
    Betsson1.275.15
    EV+ 10%
    7.80
    Nordicbet1.275.15
    EV+ 10%
    7.80

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 08:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Hammarby TFF win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.39 to 1.27 (−9%).

    1-9 %
    73 %63 %

    1.39 → 1.27

    X+17 %
    24 %14 %

    4.40 → 5.15

    2+22 %
    18 %8 %

    6.40 → 7.80

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Hammarby TFF 1Draw 0Sollentuna 0
    Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hammarby TFF
    Sollentuna
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hammarby TFF (45–15)
    Sollentuna (19–27)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hammarby TFF
    Noah Ek: 475 passningar, xT 2.99EkJesper Lindahl: 406 passningar, xT 0.95LindahlBjörn Hedlöf: 246 passningar, xT 0.44HedlöfAdam Johansson: 203 passningar, xT 0.41JohanssonKeyano Marrah: 197 passningar, xT 0.43MarrahCasper Eklund: 189 passningar, xT 0.69EklundEssayas Lwampindy-Bofua: 180 passningar, xT 0.08Lwampindy-BofuaGent Elezaj: 156 passningar, xT 0.57ElezajWilliam Loqvist: 122 passningar, xT 0.05LoqvistOskar Moczarny: 118 passningar, xT -0.02MoczarnyElton Fischerström Opancar: 89 passningar, xT 0.14Opancar
    Sollentuna
    Umit Aras: 262 passningar, xT 0.14ArasJohannes Danho: 165 passningar, xT 1.2DanhoDavid Bengtsson: 137 passningar, xT 0.11BengtssonOskar Käck: 134 passningar, xT 0.2KäckErik Lundell: 121 passningar, xT -0.03LundellJonathan Zeberga: 111 passningar, xT 0.13ZebergaSalim Nkubiri: 96 passningar, xT 0.77NkubiriLukas Johansson: 95 passningar, xT 0.2JohanssonKalle Selin Stregart: 86 passningar, xT 0.06StregartLudvig Ennart: 68 passningar, xT 0.41EnnartEmil Stenstrand: 60 passningar, xT 0.95Stenstrand
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hammarby TFF
    Noah Ek: 475 passningar, xT 2.99EkJesper Lindahl: 406 passningar, xT 0.95LindahlBjörn Hedlöf: 246 passningar, xT 0.44HedlöfAdam Johansson: 203 passningar, xT 0.41JohanssonKeyano Marrah: 197 passningar, xT 0.43MarrahCasper Eklund: 189 passningar, xT 0.69EklundEssayas Lwampindy-Bofua: 180 passningar, xT 0.08Lwampindy-BofuaGent Elezaj: 156 passningar, xT 0.57ElezajWilliam Loqvist: 122 passningar, xT 0.05LoqvistOskar Moczarny: 118 passningar, xT -0.02MoczarnyElton Fischerström Opancar: 89 passningar, xT 0.14Opancar
    Sollentuna
    Umit Aras: 262 passningar, xT 0.14ArasJohannes Danho: 165 passningar, xT 1.2DanhoDavid Bengtsson: 137 passningar, xT 0.11BengtssonOskar Käck: 134 passningar, xT 0.2KäckErik Lundell: 121 passningar, xT -0.03LundellJonathan Zeberga: 111 passningar, xT 0.13ZebergaSalim Nkubiri: 96 passningar, xT 0.77NkubiriLukas Johansson: 95 passningar, xT 0.2JohanssonKalle Selin Stregart: 86 passningar, xT 0.06StregartLudvig Ennart: 68 passningar, xT 0.41EnnartEmil Stenstrand: 60 passningar, xT 0.95Stenstrand

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHammarby TFFSollentuna
    Points3823
    xPoints29.625.2
    xG per match1.71.2
    xGA per match0.81.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.21
    Playing styleHammarby TFFSollentuna
    Build-up efficiency0.40.32
    Field tilt0.780.53
    xT per match1.71.4
    xTA per match0.731.3
    Won balls, offensive half3328
    Pressing intensity0.560.44
    Pressing efficiency0.280.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.24
    Entries into the box per match2212
    Entries into the box against812
    Pass completion %0.850.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.820.76
    Passes per match481390
    Passes against per match274386
    Switches of play per match12.813.2
    Long balls per match2534
    Set piecesHammarby TFFSollentuna
    xG from free kicks0.230.12
    Corners per match5.84.3
    Corners against per match3.54.8
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.64
    OtherHammarby TFFSollentuna
    Throw-in control0.670.57
    The goalkeepersElton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF)Oscar Franck (Sollentuna)
    Saves4133
    Save %76%67%
    xG prevented56%37%
    Claims75 (95%)68 (93%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hammarby TFF vs Sollentuna according to our model?

    The model gives Hammarby TFF a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby TFF 69%, draw 17%, Sollentuna 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.