Karlstad Fotboll vs FBK Karlstad: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan16 September 2026 19:00 CEST14°0,3 mm19 km/h

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Karlstad FotbollPossession control

FBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Karlstad Fotboll (58%)

1 · Karlstad Fotboll 58%X 23%19% FBK Karlstad · 2

58%

23%

19%

Analysis: Karlstad Fotboll – FBK Karlstad

Marcus Johansson · 9 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The 58% probability model points decisively towards a Karlstad Fotboll victory. Their expected goals of 2.12 is significantly higher than FBK Karlstad's 0.89. The hosts' possession-oriented style is likely to dominate, especially against an FBK side that relies on counterattacks and crosses, strategies potentially hampered by forecasted rain. The wet conditions are factored into the model, which anticipates a higher-scoring game, skewing towards the home team.

Although past encounters between these sides are evenly split with a small sample size of three games (1 win each, 1 draw), current season form and expected goals differ. Karlstad Fotboll's defense is robust with a low xGA of 0.68, suggesting FBK may struggle to break through, despite their higher xG per match. With Karlstad Fotboll edging on points and FBK only slightly ahead in expected points, the home side's defensive solidity could be the tipping point.

For bettors, the numbers suggest a 2-0 or 1-0 scoreline, though the model still gives a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals overall. Given this and the heavy rain that could disrupt both teams' usual play styles, IF Karlstad Fotboll at odds of 58% presents a value bet. Keep an eye on the bookmaker's odds for a potential edge here.

Karlstad Fotboll

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #1xT #26xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Oskar AlversLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.22
William MiguelFxG 0.48 · xT 0.10
Lukas RhöseLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

FBK Karlstad

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #10xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Granit HanaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.11
Linus FredrikssonRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
Anton PärleholtRWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.32

Match prediction: Karlstad Fotboll – FBK Karlstad

Predicted score matrix

FBK Karlstad →

Karlstad Fotboll →

0–05.2%

0–14.1%

0–21.9%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.2%

1–19.6%

1–24.1%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.8%

3–17.0%

3–23.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–06.8%

4+–16.0%

4+–22.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,12–0,89

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Karlstad Fotboll to win58%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Karlstad Fotboll to win58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Armin Đerlek to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Armin Đerlek to score22%
Alexander Hagelberg to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Karlstad Fotboll 1Draw 1FBK Karlstad 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 3,3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Karlstad Fotboll

FBK Karlstad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Karlstad Fotboll (32–19)

FBK Karlstad (34–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Karlstad Fotboll

FBK Karlstad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Karlstad Fotboll

FBK Karlstad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Karlstad Fotboll	FBK Karlstad
Points	37	34
xPoints	32	32.5
xG per match	1.3	1.5
xGA per match	0.68	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.27

Playing style	Karlstad Fotboll	FBK Karlstad
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.34
Field tilt	0.62	0.41
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	0.96	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	33	34
Pressing intensity	0.51	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	8	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.64
Passes per match	391	266
Passes against per match	302	431
Switches of play per match	16.5	19
Long balls per match	32	33

Set pieces	Karlstad Fotboll	FBK Karlstad
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.14
Corners per match	5.1	5.4
Corners against per match	3.5	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.62

Other	Karlstad Fotboll	FBK Karlstad
Throw-in control	0.56	0.48

The goalkeepers	Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll)	Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad)
Saves	35	54
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	45%	54%
Claims	88 (89%)	69 (87%)

Teams & more matches this round

Karlstad Fotboll

Fixtures, form & tips

FBK Karlstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Karlstad Fotboll vs FBK Karlstad according to our model?

The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlstad Fotboll 58%, draw 23%, FBK Karlstad 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.