IFK Stocksund vs Karlstad Fotboll: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan12 September 2026 16:00 CEST16°0,3 mm16 km/h

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IFK StocksundBalanced & physical

Karlstad FotbollPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Karlstad Fotboll (58%)

1 · IFK Stocksund 23%X 19%58% Karlstad Fotboll · 2

23%

19%

58%

Analysis: IFK Stocksund – Karlstad Fotboll

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

IF Karlstad Fotboll’s dominance over IFK Stocksund is unmistakable, having won six of their last seven meetings. The historical data paints a clear picture of superiority for the visitors, though it is wise to remember the small head-to-head sample size. Stocksund find themselves in a troubling spiral, with four consecutive defeats, further underscoring the challenge they face.

Despite Stocksund's struggles, their expected goals (xG) per match sit at a respectable 1.6, slightly higher than Karlstad's 1.3. However, the hosts' defensive frailties are glaring, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.0 per game. In contrast, Karlstad's defense has been solid, conceding an average of just 0.68 xGA per match. This defensive resilience underpins their strong league position and points tally.

The model sees a definite lean towards Karlstad, assigning them a 58% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline, according to the probabilities, is a 1-2 win for the visitors. This aligns with the pattern of a high-scoring fixture, averaging 3.4 goals historically. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 63%, suggesting a match where offense might outweigh defense, especially given both teams' tendency to score.

For those looking for value, the market at Bet365 offers an enticing 2.10 on Karlstad to win — a bet that reflects both historical trends and current form. Considering the evidence, a 1-2 or a 0-2 outcome is well within reach, with the over 2.5 goals market also presenting a solid angle given the scoring propensities of both sides.

IFK Stocksund

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #31xT #2xP/match #30Points #31

Key players

Yosef RaufFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.57
Langston Jasper WennerlindLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.39

Karlstad Fotboll

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #1xT #26xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Oskar AlversLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.22
William MiguelFxG 0.48 · xT 0.10
Lukas RhöseLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: IFK Stocksund – Karlstad Fotboll

Predicted score matrix

Karlstad Fotboll →

IFK Stocksund →

0–04.1%

0–17.6%

0–28.2%

0–35.7%

0–4+4.8%

1–04.2%

1–19.7%

1–29.8%

1–36.8%

1–4+5.7%

2–02.7%

2–15.6%

2–25.8%

2–34.0%

2–4+3.4%

3–01.1%

3–12.2%

3–22.3%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.3%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.1-110%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,19–2,08

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.62

Over 2,563%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Karlstad Fotboll to win58%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Karlstad Fotboll to win58%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Armin Đerlek to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Yosef Rauf to score38%
Konrad Gustafsson to be booked19%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Stocksund	X	2 · Karlstad Fotboll
Betsafe	4.10	4.05	1.62
Betsson	4.10	4.05	1.62
Nordicbet	4.10	4.05	1.62

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:37

Odds movement

1-5 %

24 %19 %

4.30 → 4.10

X+3 %

25 %20 %

3.95 → 4.05

20 %

58 %53 %

1.62 → 1.62

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

IFK Stocksund 1Draw 0Karlstad Fotboll 6

Goals: 7–17 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

IF Karlstad Fotboll dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
IFK Stocksund have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Stocksund

Karlstad Fotboll

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Stocksund (39–49)

Karlstad Fotboll (32–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Stocksund

Karlstad Fotboll

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Stocksund

Karlstad Fotboll

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Stocksund	Karlstad Fotboll
Points	11	37
xPoints	20.4	32
xG per match	1.6	1.3
xGA per match	2	0.68
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.2

Playing style	IFK Stocksund	Karlstad Fotboll
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.52	0.62
xT per match	1.7	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	26	33
Pressing intensity	0.53	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.27
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	15	8
Pass completion %	0.81	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.74
Passes per match	379	391
Passes against per match	335	302
Switches of play per match	12.7	16.5
Long balls per match	28	32

Set pieces	IFK Stocksund	Karlstad Fotboll
xG from free kicks	0.23	0.1
Corners per match	3.9	5.1
Corners against per match	4.3	3.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.62

Other	IFK Stocksund	Karlstad Fotboll
Throw-in control	0.56	0.56

The goalkeepers	Jakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund)	Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll)
Saves	72	35
Save %	61%	67%
xG prevented	37%	45%
Claims	101 (86%)	88 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Stocksund

Fixtures, form & tips

Karlstad Fotboll

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Stocksund vs Karlstad Fotboll according to our model?

The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Stocksund 23%, draw 19%, Karlstad Fotboll 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.