01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Jönköpings Södra or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Swedish Ettan13°0,9 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
Jönköpings SödraPossession controlvs
ÅtvidabergPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Jönköpings Södra (44%)
Jönköpings Södra – Åtvidaberg · Swedish Ettan
1 · Jönköpings Södra 44%X 26%30% Åtvidaberg · 2
44%
26%
30%
Analysis: Jönköpings Södra – Åtvidaberg
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
In a clash of styles and statistics, Jönköpings Södra, with their possession control, face a high-pressing Åtvidabergs FF. The model tips the scales slightly in favor of the hosts, giving them a 44% chance of victory, yet the expected goals (xG) figures tell a more nuanced story. Jönköpings Södra's xG stands at 1.46 compared to Åtvidaberg's 1.18, suggesting a tight contest but one where the home side may find the edge. Historically, Jönköpings Södra boasts a 60% win rate at home, but with only one recent head-to-head encounter, which went Åtvidaberg's way, the past offers limited guidance.
Despite Åtvidaberg's superior point tally this season, 36 to Jönköping's 26, the underlying numbers present a different narrative. The xPoints metric, showing Åtvidaberg at 30.6 against Jönköping's 26.3, slightly favors the visitors but underscores the competitive balance. The xGA figures, however, lean towards Jönköpings Södra at 1.0, indicating a potential defensive solidity that might counter Åtvidaberg's attacking intent.
With rain expected to the tune of 5.4 mm and temperatures around 12.7°C, conditions could suppress scoring, a factor already accounted for in the model's predictions. The most likely scorelines reflect this, with a 1-1 draw leading at 13% and a narrow 1-0 home win at 10%. The odds for over 2.5 goals sit at 49%, pointing to a match where goals might be scarce.
Jönköpings Södra's ability to control possession at home may just tip the balance, especially in challenging conditions. While a 1-1 draw seems plausible, a 1-0 home victory is equally viable.
Jönköpings SödraForm WDDWL
League ranking xG #22xGA #5xT #18xP/match #18Points #17
Key players
- Dzenis KozicaFxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
- Linus LyckFxG 0.34 · xT 0.10
- Faiz BenatallahFxG 0.40 · xT 0.16
ÅtvidabergForm WWWLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #7xP/match #8Points #7
Key players
- Erik GrandeliusRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.31
- Adam SamuelssonFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
- Haris RadetinacFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Jönköpings Södra – Åtvidaberg
Predicted score matrix
Åtvidaberg →
Jönköpings Södra →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–18.0%
0–24.9%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.0%
1–112.6%
1–27.2%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.6%
2–19.0%
2–25.3%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.4%
3–22.6%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-08%
Expected goals
1,46–1,18
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,607%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
–
Over 2,549%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Jönköpings Södra or draw (1X)70%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Linus Lyck to score41%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Linus Lyck to score41%
- Jesper Lindvall to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesJönköpings Södra 0Draw 0Åtvidaberg 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Jönköpings Södra IF win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jönköpings Södra
Åtvidaberg
Jönköpings Södra (25–20)
Åtvidaberg (42–30)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jönköpings Södra
Åtvidaberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jönköpings Södra
Åtvidaberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jönköpings Södra | Åtvidaberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 36 |
| xPoints | 26.3 | 30.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Jönköpings Södra | Åtvidaberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 352 | 445 |
| Passes against per match | 279 | 344 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 13.8 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Jönköpings Södra | Åtvidaberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| Other | Jönköpings Södra | Åtvidaberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.52 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Alexander Eriksson (Jönköpings Södra) | Hugo Claesson (Åtvidaberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 51 | 47 |
| Save % | 72% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 41% |
| Claims | 129 (93%) | 82 (92%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jönköpings Södra vs Åtvidaberg according to our model?
The model gives Jönköpings Södra a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jönköpings Södra 44%, draw 26%, Åtvidaberg 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.