Karlberg vs Arlanda: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan12 September 2026 13:00 CEST

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KarlbergBalanced & physical

ArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Karlberg (39%)Soft draw

1 · Karlberg 39%X 24%37% Arlanda · 2

39%

24%

37%

Analysis: Karlberg – Arlanda

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Karlberg's physical style of play might just tip the scales in their favor against Arlanda's counter-attacking game. Despite Arlanda's slight lead in the standings with 36 points compared to the hosts' 25, Karlberg's underlying numbers tell a different story. They boast a higher expected points tally of 29.4 compared to Arlanda's 28.7, and their xG per match (1.5) also edges out the visitors' 1.4. This suggests that Karlberg may have been somewhat unlucky in terms of actual results.

The head-to-head record offers little clarity, with just three encounters since the start of 2023: each team has taken a win, and they've played to a draw once. This small sample size means recent form and expected goals data should be weighted more heavily in any analysis. The model favors Karlberg, giving them a 39% chance of victory versus Arlanda's 37%, with a 24% chance of a draw. This underlines the hosts' potential to disrupt Arlanda's game plan, particularly if they can impose their physicality and disrupt the visitors' reliance on crosses and quick transitions.

With expected goals at 1.71 for Karlberg and 1.44 for Arlanda, the prospect of both teams finding the net is high, reflected in the 63% probability for both teams to score and a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. This aligns with the most probable scorelines, with 1-1 (11%) and 2-1 (9%) being the most likely outcomes.

Given these dynamics, the most prudent prediction leans towards a narrow victory for Karlberg, possibly 2-1, where their balanced approach could just outmuscle Arlanda's counters. The attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities both sides have displayed this season also support the over 2.5 goals market as a point of interest.

Karlberg

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #15xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.26
Adam JemalFxG 0.46 · xT 0.18
Mattias MitkuFxG 0.28 · xT 0.15

Arlanda

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #13xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Carl NorbergRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.64
Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.27
Isac AntholmLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Karlberg – Arlanda

Predicted score matrix

Arlanda →

Karlberg →

0–04.6%

0–15.9%

0–24.5%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.1%

1–07.0%

1–110.9%

1–27.6%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.2%

2–19.0%

2–26.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.6%

3–15.1%

3–23.7%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.2%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,71–1,44

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.25

Over 2,561%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Adam Jemal to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Adam Jemal to score33%
Mario Butros to be booked18%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Karlberg	X	2 · Arlanda
Betsafe	2.52	3.45	2.42
Betsson	2.52	3.45	2.42
Nordicbet	2.52	3.45	2.42

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:37

Odds movement

1+10 %

45 %25 %

2.30 → 2.52

X-1 %

36 %16 %

3.50 → 3.45

2-8 %

50 %30 %

2.62 → 2.42

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Karlberg 1Draw 1Arlanda 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Karlberg

Arlanda

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Karlberg (28–31)

Arlanda (34–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Karlberg

Arlanda

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Karlberg

Arlanda

The teams in numbers

Performance	Karlberg	Arlanda
Points	25	36
xPoints	29.4	28.7
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.29

Playing style	Karlberg	Arlanda
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.34
Field tilt	0.47	0.41
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	28	33
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.82	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.67
Passes per match	372	263
Passes against per match	381	334
Switches of play per match	13	17.7
Long balls per match	27	32

Set pieces	Karlberg	Arlanda
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.13
Corners per match	4.3	3.6
Corners against per match	4.4	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.58

Other	Karlberg	Arlanda
Throw-in control	0.61	0.42

The goalkeepers	Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg)	Adam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)
Saves	59	69
Save %	73%	75%
xG prevented	52%	56%
Claims	76 (91%)	98 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

Karlberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Arlanda

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Karlberg vs Arlanda according to our model?

The model gives Karlberg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlberg 39%, draw 24%, Arlanda 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.