Laholm vs Eskilsminne: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan12 September 2026 13:00 CEST15°0,8 mm16 km/h

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LaholmPossession control

EskilsminnePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Eskilsminne (44%)

1 · Laholm 30%X 26%44% Eskilsminne · 2

30%

26%

44%

Analysis: Laholm – Eskilsminne

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Eskilsminne's high-pressing style might just be the key factor in this clash against Laholm. Both teams lean into possession, but it's the visitors' ability to disrupt and transition quickly that could tilt the scales. With the model probabilities giving Eskilsminne a 44% chance of taking all three points, there's a clear lean towards them despite the expected goals being nearly level at 1.74 for Eskilsminne and 1.67 for Laholm.

A close reading of the numbers reveals a consistent edge for the visitors. Eskilsminne not only has a slight advantage in xG per match at 1.4 compared to Laholm's 1.3, but they also concede marginally less, with an xGA of 1.4 against Laholm's 1.5. The head-to-head record, albeit based on a single match since 2023, adds a psychological edge, having already defeated Laholm once.

Goals are expected to flow, with a 66% probability of the match exceeding 2.5 goals. Both teams to score sits at 67%, hinting at a likely exchange of goals. Laholm's possession-oriented approach might lead to periods of control, but Eskilsminne's pressing could force turnovers in dangerous areas. This dynamic supports the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1, though a 1-2 away victory follows closely behind as a scoreline Eskilsminne will be keen to achieve to solidify their standing.

The most compelling betting angle here lies in the value offered by the bookmakers. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 2.85 on an Eskilsminne win, there's a significant 25% edge according to the model's 44% probability. This potential for value makes backing the visitors an attractive proposition, particularly for punters looking for a calculated risk with solid data to back it up.

Laholm

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #21xGA #21xT #28xP/match #25Points #27

Key players

Philip ComnellFxG 0.34 · xT 0.08
Viggo RolfssonFxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
Elis WijkFxG 0.50 · xT -0.02

Eskilsminne

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #6xP/match #15Points #19

Key players

Hugo LindahlFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Leo Frigell JanssonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
André GustafsonFxG 0.48 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Laholm – Eskilsminne

Predicted score matrix

Eskilsminne →

Laholm →

0–03.6%

0–15.5%

0–25.0%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.9%

1–05.2%

1–19.9%

1–28.3%

1–34.8%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.6%

2–18.0%

2–27.0%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.6%

3–02.6%

3–14.5%

3–23.9%

3–32.3%

3–4+1.4%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-15%

Expected goals

1,67–1,74

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.35

Over 2,566%

@1.52EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eskilsminne or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eskilsminne or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Teddy Bermudez to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Philip Comnell to score34%
Lucas Ragnarsson to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Eskilsminne44% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
2 · Eskilsminne44% probability@2.85BetssonEV+25%reference odds
2 · Eskilsminne44% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+25%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Laholm	X	2 · Eskilsminne
Betsafe	2.15	3.50	EV+ 25% 2.85
Betsson	2.15	3.50	EV+ 25% 2.85
Nordicbet	2.15	3.50	EV+ 25% 2.85

Odds updated 10 Sept, 17:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Laholm win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 2.75 to 2.15 (−22%).

1-22 %

48 %28 %

2.75 → 2.15

X-3 %

36 %16 %

3.60 → 3.50

2+33 %

47 %27 %

2.15 → 2.85

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Laholm 0Draw 0Eskilsminne 1

Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Laholm

Eskilsminne

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Laholm (27–38)

Eskilsminne (32–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Laholm

Eskilsminne

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Laholm

Eskilsminne

The teams in numbers

Performance	Laholm	Eskilsminne
Points	18	25
xPoints	25	28.2
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.46	0.28

Playing style	Laholm	Eskilsminne
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.36
Field tilt	0.41	0.51
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	25	29
Pressing intensity	0.46	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.72
Passes per match	350	341
Passes against per match	389	348
Switches of play per match	16.4	21.2
Long balls per match	30	36

Set pieces	Laholm	Eskilsminne
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.15
Corners per match	4	4.5
Corners against per match	4.7	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.58

Other	Laholm	Eskilsminne
Throw-in control	0.53	0.55

The goalkeepers	Max Johnsson (Laholm)	Ian Pettersson (Eskilsminne)
Saves	55	69
Save %	59%	66%
xG prevented	37%	44%
Claims	143 (93%)	107 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

Laholm

Fixtures, form & tips

Eskilsminne

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Laholm vs Eskilsminne according to our model?

The model gives Eskilsminne a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Laholm 30%, draw 26%, Eskilsminne 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.