Swedish Ettan15°16 km/h

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    Lunds BKLunds BKPossession control
    vs
    RosengårdRosengårdPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Lunds BK (48%)

    Lunds BK – Rosengård · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Lunds BK 48%X 23%29% Rosengård · 2

    Analysis: Lunds BK – Rosengård

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A crucial tension underpins Lunds BK's clash with Rosengård in Ettan: the visitors' unbeaten streak of seven games meets the hosts' formidable home ground reputation, winning 60% of matches played there. The model slightly favors Lunds BK, offering them a 48% chance of victory, yet the specter of Rosengård's resilience looms large. With both teams adopting possession-based strategies, Lunds BK's control approach will be tested against Rosengård's high press, creating a dynamic battlefield in midfield.

    While Lunds BK boasts a marginal lead in points (35 to Rosengård's 34), the expected points tell a different story, with the visitors edging ahead at 33.2 to Lunds' 31.2. This xPoints disparity suggests Rosengård's recent form isn't just luck. Moreover, Rosengård's superior defensive metrics (xGA of 0.97 compared to Lunds' 1.3) could prove pivotal, especially if they manage to stifle the home side's xG of 1.9 per match. However, Lunds BK's home advantage cannot be disregarded, with a historical winning rate that speaks volumes.

    Despite the single head-to-head encounter since 2023 resulting in a draw, this small sample size offers limited insight into the current matchup. Instead, the model's projections indicate a tight contest leaning towards both teams finding the net, with a 62% chance for both to score and a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals. The most probable outcomes hover around a balanced scoreline, with 1-1 at 11% and 2-1 to Lunds BK at 9%.

    For those seeking value, Lunds BK's home win offers an enticing proposition across several bookmakers. With odds of 2.25 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, punters can exploit a 7% edge according to the model's 48% win probability. This edge reflects the subtle balance of power — and perhaps a tipping point for the hosts to reclaim their edge against formidable opposition.

    Lunds BKLunds BK
    Form DLWWD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #12xT #12xP/match #6Points #9
    Key players
    • Emil LindmanFxG 0.19 · xT 0.37
    • Momodou BojangFxG 0.67 · xT 0.08
    • Alexander NilssonLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.21
    RosengårdRosengård
    Form DDDWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #11xP/match #3Points #10
    Key players
    • Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.33 · xT 0.33
    • Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17
    • Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.46 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Lunds BK – Rosengård

    Predicted score matrix

    Rosengård →
    Lunds BK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.6%
    0–15.5%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–07.5%
    1–110.8%
    1–27.0%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–19.4%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–15.6%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–02.8%
    4+–13.8%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-07%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,80–1,34
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @2.35
    Over 2,561%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Lunds BK to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.48

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Lunds BK to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Aleandro Wihlborg Costa to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Aleandro Wihlborg Costa to score26%
    • Otto Håkansson to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Lunds BK48% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Lunds BK48% probability@2.32BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    • 1 · Lunds BK48% probability@2.32NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Lunds BKX2 · Rosengård
    Betsafe
    EV+ 11%
    2.32    		3.402.65
    Betsson
    EV+ 11%
    2.32    		3.402.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 11%
    2.32    		3.402.65

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    41 %36 %

    2.45 → 2.32

    X0 %
    29 %24 %

    3.40 → 3.40

    2+5 %
    37 %32 %

    2.52 → 2.65

    Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Lunds BK 0Draw 1Rosengård 0
    Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Rosengård 1917 are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    • Lunds BK win 60% of their home matches all-time (53 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Lunds BK
    Rosengård
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Lunds BK (42–26)
    Rosengård (35–26)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Lunds BK
    Bozidar Velickovic: 237 passningar, xT 0.45VelickovicLudvig Nicklasson: 229 passningar, xT 0.37NicklassonJonathan Jacobsson: 178 passningar, xT 0.29JacobssonEmil Lindman: 170 passningar, xT 1.28LindmanGustav Sågänger: 152 passningar, xT 0.59SågängerHejdar Elwan: 147 passningar, xT 0.16ElwanJosef Getachew: 139 passningar, xT 0.26GetachewIsak Orajärvi: 128 passningar, xT 0.05OrajärviAndreas Alexandersson: 119 passningar, xT 0.43AlexanderssonSimon Lindfors: 107 passningar, xT 0.17LindforsJesper Strid: 100 passningar, xT 0.2Strid
    Rosengård
    Graham Nii Ankamah Ankamafio: 256 passningar, xT 0.27AnkamafioKalle Larsson: 236 passningar, xT 0.36LarssonWilliam Lindberg: 172 passningar, xT 0.53LindbergFrederik Lesley Schmidt Petersen: 169 passningar, xT 0.29PetersenMattias Andersson: 129 passningar, xT 0.85AnderssonJens Lynard: 116 passningar, xT 0.52LynardOtto Håkansson: 94 passningar, xT 0.08HåkanssonJoel Voelkerling Persson: 67 passningar, xT 0.2PerssonArgjend Malaj: 67 passningar, xT 0.04MalajMatias Ritari: 64 passningar, xT 0.13RitariLudvig Carlius: 57 passningar, xT 0.75Carlius
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Lunds BK
    Bozidar Velickovic: 237 passningar, xT 0.45VelickovicLudvig Nicklasson: 229 passningar, xT 0.37NicklassonJonathan Jacobsson: 178 passningar, xT 0.29JacobssonEmil Lindman: 170 passningar, xT 1.28LindmanGustav Sågänger: 152 passningar, xT 0.59SågängerHejdar Elwan: 147 passningar, xT 0.16ElwanJosef Getachew: 139 passningar, xT 0.26GetachewIsak Orajärvi: 128 passningar, xT 0.05OrajärviAndreas Alexandersson: 119 passningar, xT 0.43AlexanderssonSimon Lindfors: 107 passningar, xT 0.17LindforsJesper Strid: 100 passningar, xT 0.2Strid
    Rosengård
    Graham Nii Ankamah Ankamafio: 256 passningar, xT 0.27AnkamafioKalle Larsson: 236 passningar, xT 0.36LarssonWilliam Lindberg: 172 passningar, xT 0.53LindbergFrederik Lesley Schmidt Petersen: 169 passningar, xT 0.29PetersenMattias Andersson: 129 passningar, xT 0.85AnderssonJens Lynard: 116 passningar, xT 0.52LynardOtto Håkansson: 94 passningar, xT 0.08HåkanssonJoel Voelkerling Persson: 67 passningar, xT 0.2PerssonArgjend Malaj: 67 passningar, xT 0.04MalajMatias Ritari: 64 passningar, xT 0.13RitariLudvig Carlius: 57 passningar, xT 0.75Carlius

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLunds BKRosengård
    Points3534
    xPoints31.233.2
    xG per match1.91.6
    xGA per match1.30.97
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.460.38
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.19
    Playing styleLunds BKRosengård
    Build-up efficiency0.340.4
    Field tilt0.580.61
    xT per match1.41.5
    xTA per match1.41.2
    Won balls, offensive half4032
    Pressing intensity0.50.48
    Pressing efficiency0.310.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.28
    Entries into the box per match1617
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.750.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.73
    Passes per match353381
    Passes against per match302362
    Switches of play per match20.216.5
    Long balls per match3631
    Set piecesLunds BKRosengård
    xG from free kicks0.160.2
    Corners per match5.65.9
    Corners against per match4.23.3
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.67
    OtherLunds BKRosengård
    Throw-in control0.440.56
    The goalkeepersAndreas Alexandersson (Lunds BK)Alexander Cederfelt (Rosengård)
    Saves5756
    Save %69%71%
    xG prevented40%70%
    Claims119 (92%)105 (91%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Lunds BK
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rosengård
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Lunds BK vs Rosengård according to our model?

    The model gives Lunds BK a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lunds BK 48%, draw 23%, Rosengård 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.