Rosengård vs Trelleborgs FF: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan17 September 2026 19:00 CEST

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RosengårdPossession & high press

Trelleborgs FFPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Rosengård (39%)Soft draw

1 · Rosengård 39%X 25%36% Trelleborgs FF · 2

39%

25%

36%

Analysis: Rosengård – Trelleborgs FF

Oscar Nilsson · 10 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim: the specific "Coolbet's odds" of 2.70 for Rosengård to win is not present anywhere in the FACTS and appears fabricated. Here is the corrected text:

Two possession-heavy sides with a penchant for high pressing collide as Rosengård hosts Trelleborgs FF. The model gives a slight edge to the hosts, who have been on an impressive seven-match unbeaten run. Interestingly, the expected goals are nearly deadlocked, reflecting the fine margins in this matchup: Rosengård 1.61 to Trelleborgs' 1.51. Both teams are well-drilled in similar playing styles, which likely translates into a tight battle for supremacy in the middle of the park.

Despite Trelleborgs holding a five-point lead over their hosts in the league table, it's Rosengård who can feel confident in the underlying numbers. Their xPoints of 33.2 narrowly outstrip Trelleborgs' 30.4, indicating Rosengård has perhaps been unlucky not to sit higher in the standings. The solitary head-to-head clash since 2023 ended in Trelleborgs' favor, but with just one encounter on record, it holds less weight than current form and xG metrics.

Goals should be on the menu with the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 60%, and both teams to score at 63%. The most likely scoreline, 1-1 at 11%, underlines the model's expectation of a closely contested affair. Yet, with Rosengård's unbeaten streak and superior defensive numbers—conceding 0.97 xGA per match compared to Trelleborgs' 1.1—they might just have the slight upper hand.

Expect a tight and tactical match, but Rosengård's momentum and efficiency at the back could see them edge out a 2-1 victory.

Rosengård

Form DDDWW

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #11xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.33 · xT 0.33
Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17
Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.46 · xT 0.06

Trelleborgs FF

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #8xP/match #9Points #2

Key players

Johan BrannefalkRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.51
Oskar RuuskaRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.33
Emil Orheim JafLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Rosengård – Trelleborgs FF

Predicted score matrix

Trelleborgs FF →

Rosengård →

0–04.7%

0–16.3%

0–25.0%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.8%

1–111.0%

1–28.1%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.7%

2–26.5%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–03.1%

3–14.7%

3–23.5%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,61–1,51

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rosengård or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rosengård or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Joel Voelkerling Persson to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Joel Voelkerling Persson to score28%
Otto Håkansson to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Rosengård 0Draw 0Trelleborgs FF 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Rosengård 1917 are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rosengård

Trelleborgs FF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rosengård (35–26)

Trelleborgs FF (42–23)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rosengård

Trelleborgs FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rosengård

Trelleborgs FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rosengård	Trelleborgs FF
Points	34	39
xPoints	33.2	30.4
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	0.97	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.13

Playing style	Rosengård	Trelleborgs FF
Build-up efficiency	0.4	0.32
Field tilt	0.61	0.6
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	32	36
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.33
Entries into the box per match	17	15
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	381	359
Passes against per match	362	296
Switches of play per match	16.5	16.6
Long balls per match	31	31

Set pieces	Rosengård	Trelleborgs FF
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.17
Corners per match	5.9	5.5
Corners against per match	3.3	3.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.62

Other	Rosengård	Trelleborgs FF
Throw-in control	0.56	0.5

The goalkeepers	Alexander Cederfelt (Rosengård)	Malte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF)
Saves	56	61
Save %	71%	74%
xG prevented	70%	38%
Claims	105 (91%)	115 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rosengård

Fixtures, form & tips

Trelleborgs FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rosengård vs Trelleborgs FF according to our model?

The model gives Rosengård a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosengård 39%, draw 25%, Trelleborgs FF 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.