Trelleborgs FF vs Hässleholms IF: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan12 September 2026 13:00 CEST17°15 km/h

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Trelleborgs FFPossession & high press

Hässleholms IFLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Trelleborgs FF (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hässleholms IF @ 4.00 (+10 %)

1 · Trelleborgs FF 49%X 24%28% Hässleholms IF · 2

49%

24%

28%

Analysis: Trelleborgs FF – Hässleholms IF

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The clash between Trelleborgs FF and Hässleholms IF hinges on contrasting styles and intriguing metrics. The model leans towards the hosts with a 49% win probability, but Hässleholm's seven-game winning streak suggests they’re not to be underestimated. Despite Trelleborg’s possession-heavy and high-press approach, Hässleholm's low block and direct play have been ruthlessly effective, netting them eight consecutive scoring matches. This dynamic might just tilt the balance against Trelleborg's home advantage.

While Trelleborgs defeated Hässleholm in their only head-to-head since 2023, a single game provides scant predictive power compared to recent form. Hässleholm's run speaks volumes, especially when they’ve outperformed Trelleborg in xPoints (33.6 vs. 30.4). Yet, Trelleborg's xG superiority per match (1.6 vs. 1.4) highlights their attacking potential, but can they break down a disciplined Hässleholm defense?

Expected goals suggest a Trelleborg edge (1.97 to Hässleholm's 1.14), but the reality might be a tighter affair with the most likely outcomes being a 1-1 or 2-1. Despite the high over 2.5 goals probability (60%), Hässleholm's defensive structure could keep this under control. The model also sees both teams scoring 59% of the time, reinforcing the notion of a closely contested match.

Betting markets, however, show a glimmer of opportunity. Odds of 4.0 for a Hässleholm win present value on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a model-rated probability of 28%, there’s a 10% edge worth considering. Especially for those looking to exploit Hässleholm's current form, this might be the wager to take. In a matchup where styles clash and metrics conflict, backing the visitors at these odds seems a calculated risk.

Trelleborgs FF

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #8xP/match #8Points #2

Key players

Johan BrannefalkRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.51
Oskar RuuskaRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.33
Emil Orheim JafLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27

Hässleholms IF

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #17xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Albin AhlstrandFxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
Alex HallFxG 0.39 · xT 0.14
Johan Persson ÅhstedtLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Trelleborgs FF – Hässleholms IF

Predicted score matrix

Hässleholms IF →

Trelleborgs FF →

0–04.7%

0–14.8%

0–22.9%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.5%

1–110.3%

1–25.7%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.9%

2–25.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.7%

3–16.5%

3–23.7%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.4%

4+–15.0%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,97–1,14

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.08

Over 2,560%

@1.68EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Trelleborgs FF to win49%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Trelleborgs FF to win49%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Vincent Poppler to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Vincent Poppler to score27%
Albin Andersson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hässleholms IF28% probability@4.00BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Hässleholms IF28% probability@4.00BetssonEV+10%reference odds
2 · Hässleholms IF28% probability@4.00NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Trelleborgs FF	X	2 · Hässleholms IF
Betsafe	1.70	3.70	EV+ 10% 4.00
Betsson	1.70	3.70	EV+ 10% 4.00
Nordicbet	1.70	3.70	EV+ 10% 4.00

Odds updated 10 Sept, 08:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Hässleholms IF win since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 4.80 to 4.00 (−17%).

1+10 %

61 %41 %

1.55 → 1.70

X-6 %

35 %15 %

3.95 → 3.70

2-17 %

34 %14 %

4.80 → 4.00

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Trelleborgs FF 1Draw 0Hässleholms IF 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Hässleholms IF come into this round on 7 straight wins.
Hässleholms IF have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Trelleborgs FF

Hässleholms IF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Trelleborgs FF (42–23)

Hässleholms IF (40–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Trelleborgs FF

Hässleholms IF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Trelleborgs FF

Hässleholms IF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Trelleborgs FF	Hässleholms IF
Points	39	39
xPoints	30.4	33.6
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.26

Playing style	Trelleborgs FF	Hässleholms IF
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.6	0.39
xT per match	1.5	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	36	28
Pressing intensity	0.53	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.3
Entries into the box per match	15	10
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.67
Passes per match	359	272
Passes against per match	296	381
Switches of play per match	16.6	15.1
Long balls per match	31	24

Set pieces	Trelleborgs FF	Hässleholms IF
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.21
Corners per match	5.5	3.2
Corners against per match	3.7	6.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.61

Other	Trelleborgs FF	Hässleholms IF
Throw-in control	0.5	0.48

The goalkeepers	Malte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF)	Liam Bengtsson (Hässleholms IF)
Saves	61	39
Save %	74%	64%
xG prevented	38%	45%
Claims	115 (93%)	97 (96%)

Teams & more matches this round

Trelleborgs FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Hässleholms IF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Trelleborgs FF vs Hässleholms IF according to our model?

The model gives Trelleborgs FF a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trelleborgs FF 49%, draw 24%, Hässleholms IF 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.