Vasalund vs Hammarby TFF: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan17 September 2026 19:00 CEST13°0,9 mm16 km/h

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VasalundPossession control

Hammarby TFFPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby TFF (56%)

1 · Vasalund 20%X 23%56% Hammarby TFF · 2

20%

23%

56%

Analysis: Vasalund – Hammarby TFF

Sofia Andersson · 10 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A 56% probability to win gives Hammarby TFF a clear edge against Vasalund, highlighting where bettors should focus. The visitors' superior expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints) further support this. With Vasalund's 1.25 expected goals per match falling short against Hammarby TFF's 2.06, the visitors' high press strategy is likely to exploit the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities, as reflected in their 1.6 xGA.

The most likely scorelines of 1-2 and 0-2 favor Hammarby TFF, suggesting a match leaning towards the visitors' offensive strength. Although the head-to-head record is minimal with just one draw, the broader form context holds more weight. Vasalund's possession control could struggle against the efficiency of Hammarby TFF, whose defense allows only 0.8 xGA per match, pointing to a tough evening for the hosts.

With a 64% chance for over 2.5 goals, goals should be expected. Yet, the strongest angle is the model's confident lean towards Hammarby TFF winning, sharpening the focus for those seeking an edge.

Vasalund

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #26xT #23xP/match #26Points #25

Key players

Ali KhanLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.43
Christopher SliwoFxG 0.57 · xT 0.06
Marko NikolicFxG 0.19 · xT 0.21

Hammarby TFF

Form WDLDD

League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #1xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.25
Adam JohanssonFxG 0.23 · xT 0.24
Noah EkLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.40

Match prediction: Vasalund – Hammarby TFF

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby TFF →

Vasalund →

0–03.9%

0–17.2%

0–27.7%

0–35.3%

0–4+4.4%

1–04.3%

1–19.7%

1–29.7%

1–36.7%

1–4+5.5%

2–02.9%

2–15.9%

2–26.1%

2–34.2%

2–4+3.5%

3–01.2%

3–12.5%

3–22.5%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.5%

4+–11.0%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.1-110%
3.0-28%
4.0-17%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,25–2,06

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby TFF to win56%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby TFF to win56%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Oskar Moczarny to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Oskar Moczarny to score30%
Esaias Torppa to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Vasalund 0Draw 1Hammarby TFF 0

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vasalund

Hammarby TFF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vasalund (32–41)

Hammarby TFF (45–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vasalund

Hammarby TFF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vasalund

Hammarby TFF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vasalund	Hammarby TFF
Points	23	38
xPoints	24.7	29.6
xG per match	1.4	1.7
xGA per match	1.6	0.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.22

Playing style	Vasalund	Hammarby TFF
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.4
Field tilt	0.54	0.78
xT per match	1.3	1.7
xTA per match	1.4	0.73
Won balls, offensive half	29	33
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	22
Entries into the box against	14	8
Pass completion %	0.8	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.82
Passes per match	373	481
Passes against per match	323	274
Switches of play per match	17.5	12.8
Long balls per match	32	25

Set pieces	Vasalund	Hammarby TFF
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.23
Corners per match	4.9	5.8
Corners against per match	5.1	3.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.66

Other	Vasalund	Hammarby TFF
Throw-in control	0.57	0.67

The goalkeepers	Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund)	Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF)
Saves	45	41
Save %	66%	76%
xG prevented	46%	56%
Claims	72 (91%)	75 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vasalund

Fixtures, form & tips

Hammarby TFF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vasalund vs Hammarby TFF according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby TFF a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 20%, draw 23%, Hammarby TFF 56%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.