Falkenberg vs Brage: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan29 August 2026 15:00 CESTFalcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenberg18°2,9 mm29 km/h

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FalkenbergPossession control

4–1

BragePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Falkenberg (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Brage @ 4.33 (+23 %)

1 · Falkenberg 46%X 25%28% Brage · 2

46%

25%

28%

Analysis: Falkenberg – Brage

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The recent head-to-head history between Falkenberg and Brage is limited, with only three encounters since 2024. Falkenberg holds a slight edge, winning two of these matches. However, such a small sample size should not overshadow the more comprehensive current form and expected goals analysis. The team from Falkenberg is riding high with a streak of scoring in 13 consecutive league games, indicative of their consistent attacking threat.

Looking deeper into the numbers, the expected goals model gives Falkenberg a probability of 46% to claim victory, compared to Brage's 28%. This aligns with their superior points in the table, but digs reveal a twist: Brage actually edges the xPoints and xG metrics, suggesting a latent potential not fully realized in their league standing. Nonetheless, both teams share similar possession control styles, which might neutralize each other's strategies to some extent on the pitch.

Weather projections forecast significant rain, which often dampens scoring, but the model already accounts for these conditions. Despite this, the over 2.5 goals probability stands at a high 61%, while the BTTS metric is close at 62%. These figures suggest that regardless of the rain, a lively contest with multiple scoring chances is on the cards.

The betting landscape offers intriguing possibilities. With Falkenberg's home edge and scoring form, combined with the model's inclination towards a 1-1 draw as the single most likely scoreline, followed by 2-1 and 1-0, a narrow home win still seems plausible. The standout value lies in backing Falkenberg at 2.20 with Bet365. While the data supports a favorable outcome for the hosts, the over 2.5 goals market, despite the rain, holds potential given the teams' attacking profiles and head-to-head scoring history.

Falkenberg

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #13xP/match #11Points #2

Key players

Hampus KällströmFxG 0.42 · xT 0.18
Linus BorgströmRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
Albin AnderssonFxG 0.43 · xT 0.09

Brage

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #7xP/match #8Points #13

Key players

Alex MortensenFxG 0.33 · xT 0.12
Filip TrpcevskiFxG 0.33 · xT 0.05
Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.65

Final score

4 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Falkenberg 46% · Draw 25% · Brage 28%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IK BrageBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,19fair 10,81+4 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Falkenbergs FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,12fair 5,70-10 %

Hit

Match prediction: Falkenberg – Brage

Predicted score matrix

Brage →

Falkenberg →

0–04.5%

0–15.3%

0–23.7%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.4%

1–110.6%

1–26.9%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.1%

2–19.4%

2–26.3%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–04.3%

3–15.8%

3–23.9%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.0%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-07%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,84–1,34

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.24

Over 2,561%

@1.66EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Falkenberg to win46%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Falkenberg to win46%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Albin Andersson to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Albin Andersson to score36%
Gustav Berggren to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Brage28% probability@4.33PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
2 · Brage28% probability@4.01BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Brage28% probability@4.01BetssonEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Falkenberg	X	2 · Brage
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	1.83	3.74	EV+ 14% 4.01
Betsson	1.83	3.74	EV+ 14% 4.01
Nordicbet	1.83	3.74	EV+ 14% 4.01
Pinnacle	1.76	3.95	EV+ 23% 4.33

Odds updated 29 Aug, 14:24

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Falkenberg win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 2.01 to 1.76 (−12%).

1-12 %

55 %45 %

2.01 → 1.76

X+11 %

31 %21 %

3.55 → 3.95

2+24 %

29 %19 %

3.48 → 4.33

Over 2,5+1 %

61 %51 %

1.65 → 1.66

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Falkenberg 2Draw 0Brage 1

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Falkenbergs FF have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Falkenberg

Brage

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Falkenberg (37–29)

Brage (34–38)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Falkenberg

Brage

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Falkenberg

Brage

The teams in numbers

Performance	Falkenberg	Brage
Points	35	21
xPoints	26.6	27.6
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.32

Playing style	Falkenberg	Brage
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.41	0.48
xT per match	1.3	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	25	31
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	14	17
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.71
Passes per match	393	344
Passes against per match	395	361
Switches of play per match	19.1	18.2
Long balls per match	34	33

Set pieces	Falkenberg	Brage
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.14
Corners per match	4.2	5.1
Corners against per match	4.8	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.56

Other	Falkenberg	Brage
Throw-in control	0.56	0.54

The goalkeepers	Anton Andersson (Falkenberg)	Viktor Frodig (Brage)
Saves	28	59
Save %	62%	64%
xG prevented	42%	46%
Claims	87 (98%)	126 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

Falkenberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Brage

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Falkenberg vs Brage according to our model?

The model gives Falkenberg a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkenberg 46%, draw 25%, Brage 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.