Helsingborgs IF vs Örebro SK: Prediction & Odds (1 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan1 September 2026 19:00 CESTOlympia, Helsingborg17°1,5 mm17 km/h

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Helsingborgs IFPossession control

Örebro SKPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Helsingborgs IF (47%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.58 (+4 %)

1 · Helsingborgs IF 47%X 24%29% Örebro SK · 2

47%

24%

29%

Analysis: Helsingborgs IF – Örebro SK

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Helsingborgs IF holds a clear edge in historical meetings against Örebro SK, winning 4 of their last 5 encounters. However, the small sample size of these head-to-heads means current form and expected goals are more telling. The model leans towards Helsingborgs with a 47% win probability, reflecting their superior xG per match at 1.3 compared to Örebro's 0.96.

Despite the hosts' dominance on paper, both sides play possession football, suggesting a tightly contested match. The expected goals for the game sit at 1.86 for Helsingborgs and 1.36 for Örebro, indicating a high likelihood of both teams scoring. The model puts the over 2.5 goals probability at 62%, hinting at potential for goals despite both teams' control styles.

For bettors, there's a noteworthy value bet on the over 3.5 goals market available at odds of 2.58 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 40%, offering a 4% edge over the bookmakers. This represents the sharpest angle, especially if the game opens up beyond the possession battle both teams typically engage in.

Helsingborgs IF

Form DLLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #15xT #1xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Max SvenssonLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.50
Julian LarssonFxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
Alexander JohanssonFxG 0.45 · xT 0.05

Örebro SK

Form DLLDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #13xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Antonio YakoubFxG 0.24 · xT 0.05
Christopher RedenstrandLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.42
Rasmus Wiedesheim-PaulFxG 0.44 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Helsingborgs IF – Örebro SK

Predicted score matrix

Örebro SK →

Helsingborgs IF →

0–04.3%

0–15.1%

0–23.7%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.8%

1–07.1%

1–110.4%

1–26.9%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.9%

2–19.4%

2–26.4%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.3%

3–04.3%

3–15.8%

3–24.0%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.0%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-07%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,86–1,36

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.21

Over 2,562%

@1.65EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Helsingborgs IF to win47%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Helsingborgs IF to win47%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Alexander Johansson to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Alexander Johansson to score31%
Edwin Ibrahimbegovic to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.540% probability@2.58BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 3.540% probability@2.58BetssonEV+4%reference odds
Over 3.540% probability@2.58NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Helsingborgs IF	X	2 · Örebro SK
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.16	3.54	3.15
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.16	3.54	3.15
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.16	3.54	3.15
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 2.13	3.77	3.03

Odds updated 31 Aug, 05:14

Odds movement

1-3 %

46 %41 %

2.19 → 2.13

X-1 %

27 %22 %

3.79 → 3.77

2+4 %

34 %29 %

2.91 → 3.03

Over 2,50 %

60 %55 %

1.65 → 1.65

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Helsingborgs IF 4Draw 0Örebro SK 1

Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Helsingborgs IF dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Helsingborgs IF

Örebro SK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Helsingborgs IF (33–40)

Örebro SK (20–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Helsingborgs IF

Örebro SK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Helsingborgs IF

Örebro SK

The teams in numbers

Performance	Helsingborgs IF	Örebro SK
Points	25	19
xPoints	21	22.6
xG per match	1.3	0.96
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.26

Playing style	Helsingborgs IF	Örebro SK
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.55	0.51
xT per match	1.7	1.4
xTA per match	1.5	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	34	28
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.57
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.29
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	13	16
Pass completion %	0.8	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.76
Passes per match	427	405
Passes against per match	328	381
Switches of play per match	13.5	16.1
Long balls per match	27	28

Set pieces	Helsingborgs IF	Örebro SK
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.13
Corners per match	5.4	4.8
Corners against per match	4.7	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.63

Other	Helsingborgs IF	Örebro SK
Throw-in control	0.55	0.53

The goalkeepers	Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)	Jakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK)
Saves	72	76
Save %	68%	70%
xG prevented	45%	59%
Claims	135 (93%)	113 (89%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Helsingborgs IF vs Örebro SK according to our model?

The model gives Helsingborgs IF a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helsingborgs IF 47%, draw 24%, Örebro SK 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.