IFK Norrköping vs Oddevold: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan13 September 2026 15:00 CESTÖstgötaporten, Norrköping16°13 km/h

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IFK NorrköpingPossession control

OddevoldLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Norrköping (63%)Best value by the model: 2 · Oddevold @ 5.60 (+0 %)

1 · IFK Norrköping 63%X 19%18% Oddevold · 2

63%

19%

18%

Analysis: IFK Norrköping – Oddevold

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

IFK Norrköping enters the match against Oddevold riding a wave of consistency, having gone unbeaten in their last eight league matches. They've also found the back of the net in each of these games, showcasing a reliable offensive unit. The model gives Norrköping a clear 63% chance of winning, supported by the expected goals tally of 2.09 to 0.98 in their favor. With a style rooted in possession control, Norrköping is well-suited to dominate this matchup against Oddevold, who prefer a more defensive approach.

Oddevold, with just 32 points compared to Norrköping's 48, faces an uphill battle. Although their defensive setup can be effective, it’s unlikely to hold against Norrköping's offensive momentum. The expected goal numbers further reinforce this, suggesting that Oddevold’s direct play might struggle to produce significant chances, especially with Norrköping's disciplined defense allowing just 1.0 xGA per match.

The head-to-head history offers little to sway the analysis as only one match has been played since 2024, which Norrköping won. This small sample size means recent form and expected goals are much more reliable indicators. The weather, with rain expected, could suppress goals slightly, but this is already accounted for in the model's numbers.

A 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline seems most probable according to the model, with both scenarios equally likely at 10%. This aligns with the over 2.5 goals probability at 59%, suggesting that betting on a Norrköping win with a couple of goals could be a prudent approach. The bookmakers Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer Norrköping's victory at odds of 1.66, presenting a 5% value edge. For those looking to bet, this represents a sound option in a game where the hosts have both the form and statistical advantages firmly in their corner.

IFK Norrköping

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Christoffer NymanFxG 0.55 · xT 0.01
Moutaz NeffatiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.16
Tim PricaFxG 0.35 · xT 0.11

Oddevold

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #8

Key players

Gustav ForssellFxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Vincent SundbergRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
Leonardo Farah ShahinFxG 0.48 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: IFK Norrköping – Oddevold

Predicted score matrix

Oddevold →

IFK Norrköping →

0–04.9%

0–14.3%

0–22.2%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.4%

1–19.8%

1–24.6%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.2%

2–19.9%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–07.1%

3–16.9%

3–23.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–06.0%

4+–15.9%

4+–22.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-110%
4.1-09%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,09–0,98

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.30

Over 2,559%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

IFK Norrköping to win63%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

IFK Norrköping to win63%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tim Prica to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tim Prica to score35%
Jesper Merbom Adolfsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Oddevold18% probability@5.60BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
2 · Oddevold18% probability@5.60BetssonEV+0%reference odds
2 · Oddevold18% probability@5.60NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Norrköping	X	2 · Oddevold
Betsafe	1.51	4.50	EV+ 0% 5.60
Betsson	1.51	4.50	EV+ 0% 5.60
Nordicbet	1.51	4.50	EV+ 0% 5.60
Pinnacle	1.48	4.72	5.37

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:10

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Norrköping 1Draw 0Oddevold 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Norrköping FK are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
IFK Norrköping FK have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Norrköping

Oddevold

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Norrköping (43–15)

Oddevold (36–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Norrköping

Oddevold

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Norrköping

Oddevold

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Norrköping	Oddevold
Points	48	32
xPoints	36.8	36.6
xG per match	1.8	1.4
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.22

Playing style	IFK Norrköping	Oddevold
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.61	0.46
xT per match	1.7	1.6
xTA per match	1.2	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	39	40
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.28
Entries into the box per match	16	14
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.7
Passes per match	432	325
Passes against per match	328	436
Switches of play per match	15.1	16.6
Long balls per match	33	29

Set pieces	IFK Norrköping	Oddevold
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.13
Corners per match	5.3	5.4
Corners against per match	5.4	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.56

Other	IFK Norrköping	Oddevold
Throw-in control	0.63	0.42

The goalkeepers	Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping)	Morten Sætra (Oddevold)
Saves	67	59
Save %	84%	68%
xG prevented	67%	48%
Claims	117 (89%)	135 (93%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Norrköping vs Oddevold according to our model?

The model gives IFK Norrköping a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Norrköping 63%, draw 19%, Oddevold 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.